风光储网行业结构性修复

Search documents
风光储网行业2024年年报及2025年一季度报点评报告:行业结构性修复态势明显,光伏供需错配压力集中释放
Chengtong Securities· 2025-05-23 10:52
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the wind, energy storage, and grid equipment sectors, while indicating challenges for the photovoltaic sector [5]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a structural recovery, with significant performance improvements in the wind and energy storage sectors, while the photovoltaic sector is under pressure [1][13]. - The supply-demand mismatch in the photovoltaic industry is gradually being alleviated, with prices entering a bottom range, suggesting potential for future improvement [2][35]. - The wind power sector shows strong bidding data and notable recovery in profitability across various segments [3][24]. - The grid equipment sector continues to benefit from stable global investment, indicating ongoing industry prosperity [4][26]. Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The electric new energy sector faced significant pressure in 2024, but signs of recovery began in Q1 2025, with revenues of 7,275.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [14]. - The overall industry valuation is at historical lows, reflecting market expectations of fundamental pressures [1][28]. Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic sector's main supply chain (silicon materials, wafers, cells, and modules) experienced significant revenue declines of 20% to 40% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [24]. - The inverter segment showed recovery, with revenue growth of 12% and 43% in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [24][53]. - Global photovoltaic installations are expected to maintain a stable growth rate of 15-20% [2]. Wind Power Sector - The wind power sector demonstrated a clear recovery in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant revenue growth across various components, including a 543% increase in bearing segment profits [3][24]. - Domestic wind power prices have stabilized, and bidding volumes have increased significantly, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][24]. Grid Equipment Sector - The grid equipment sector continues to show stable growth, benefiting from increased global grid investment, with revenue growth rates of 5% to 13% across various segments [4][25]. - The demand for grid equipment is expected to rise due to the increasing share of renewable energy sources [4][26].