Core Viewpoint - Despite significant market volatility due to Trump's tariff policies, global stock markets experienced a remarkable "V-shaped" rebound in April, largely driven by the government's measures to soften trade policies and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][15][17]. Market Performance - In April, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.8%, the Dow Jones by 3.2%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.9%. The Nasdaq experienced a maximum drawdown of 16% in the first week but rebounded approximately 18% in the following weeks [3][2]. - The Dow and S&P 500 indices recorded seven consecutive days of gains, with the S&P 500's increase over this period being the largest since November 2020 [2]. Bond Market - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield experienced a wide fluctuation of 50 basis points during the month, closing at 4.173%, slightly down from 4.245% a month prior [4]. Sector Performance - Apple Inc. reflected market volatility, with its stock initially dropping significantly due to reliance on overseas manufacturing but rebounding after the government announced exemptions for certain tech products. The stock fell 4.3% for the month but rose 0.6% on a specific day [7]. Asset Class Divergence - The U.S. dollar fell over 4% in April, marking its largest monthly decline since November 2022 and the second-largest since September 2010. In contrast, gold rose nearly 6%, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains, while Bitcoin surged 14%, its best monthly performance since the election-driven rally in November [8]. - The oil market showed weakness, with WTI crude experiencing its worst monthly performance since November 2021, closing at its lowest level since February 2021 [8]. Economic Data Discrepancies - There is a notable divergence in U.S. economic data, with "hard data" showing strength while "soft data" indicates a collapse. This discrepancy complicates investor assessments of how tariffs will impact the economy [9][11]. - Institutional investors remain cautious despite the S&P 500's 14% rise since April 7, while retail investors are aggressively increasing their positions, particularly in the Nasdaq market, reflecting a more optimistic sentiment [11][13]. Market Logic Behind Rebound - The market's recovery is attributed to the Trump administration's measures to soften trade policies, including a 90-day tariff suspension and exemptions for tech products. This has led investors to believe that further measures may be taken if economic data worsens [15]. - Weak economic data has fueled expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, reinforcing the "bad news is good news" narrative in the market [16][17]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that since 1970, in cases of significant monthly drawdowns, the S&P 500 has typically rebounded in the same month, with most instances leading to further gains in the following months. However, there is caution due to the potential for a "stagflation" scenario similar to the "Nixon shock" in 1973 [18].