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风电整机专题:内卷多年终得反转,量价齐升迎接双击
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 09:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the wind power industry, highlighting strong demand and price recovery, recommending key companies such as Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy for investment [6]. Core Viewpoints - The market's concerns about the sustainability of the wind power industry's strong performance in 2025 have led to undervaluation of turbine manufacturers' stock prices, despite a 9% increase in the average bidding price for land-based wind turbines to 1552 RMB/kW in the first seven months of 2025 [2][13]. - Multiple forward-looking indicators suggest that domestic land wind demand in 2026 is likely to achieve year-on-year growth, contrary to market fears of a downturn due to the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" rush [3][16]. - The price recovery of wind turbines is supported by a dual commitment from manufacturers and project owners, with manufacturers focusing on profitability rather than market share, and owners willing to pay a premium for high-reliability products [4][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Strong Performance of Wind Turbines - The average bidding price for land-based wind turbines has shown a consistent upward trend since Q4 2024, with a 9% increase compared to the entire year of 2024 [2][14]. 2. Demand Expectations - The report indicates that the wind power installation cycle in 2025 is different from previous cycles, with a projected installation of over 110 GW, supported by a significant increase in project approvals [3][30]. - The approved wind power projects reached 106 GW in the first seven months of 2025, marking a 37% year-on-year increase, which is a positive indicator for 2026 demand [3][30]. 3. Price Expectations - The report emphasizes that the price recovery of wind turbines is driven by both demand and a strategic shift among manufacturers towards profitability, supported by a self-regulatory agreement among major manufacturers [4][42]. - The willingness of project owners to accept price increases is attributed to the declining costs of wind projects due to larger turbine sizes and improved reliability [4][44]. 4. Profitability Improvement - The report forecasts that the manufacturing gross margin for wind turbines is expected to improve significantly in 2026, driven by economies of scale and a reduction in sales and management expenses [5][38]. - The anticipated increase in high-priced orders entering the delivery phase will further enhance profitability for turbine manufacturers [5][38]. 5. Long-term Growth from Exports and Offshore Wind - Despite a potential slowdown in domestic land wind installations, the report highlights that overseas markets and domestic offshore wind projects will support long-term growth for turbine manufacturers [6][54]. - The report notes that domestic turbine manufacturers have gained a competitive edge in technology and cost, with significant overseas orders expected to materialize in 2026-2027 [6][54].