| 1小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | 空单爆仓 | | --- | --- | --- | | $1485.8万 | $764.5万 | $721.3万 | | 4小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | 空单爆仓 | | $1.5亿 | $1.4亿 | $1465.1万 | | 12小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | 空单爆仓 | | $2.4亿 | $1.9亿 | $5664.5万 | | 24小时爆仓 | 多单爆仓 | 空单爆仓 | | $5.5亿 | $4.5亿 | $1亿 | 记者丨黎雨桐 冯紫彤 编辑丨江佩霞 随着美国、以色列和伊朗之间不断升级的威胁与冲突，加密货币再次走低。 截至发稿，加密货币主要币种集体重挫，比特币跌超3%，跌至68100美元附近，以太坊跌超4%。 | | BTC | 68164 | -3.01% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | $448.7亿 -1.7% | | | | | ETH | 2058 | -4.29% | | | $267.4亿-3.8% | | | | 글 | SOL | 86.43 | -3.91% | | | $47.17Z +4.2% | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plummeting, leading to a "crypto winter" that has resulted in substantial losses for investors and a sharp decline in market capitalization [1][5]. Price Movements - Bitcoin's price fell below $70,000, reaching a low of $69,922, marking a 44% drop from its peak of $126,000 four months ago [2][3]. - Ethereum's price decreased to $2,086, down nearly 56% from $4,711 four months prior [3]. - Other cryptocurrencies like XRP, SOL, and DOGE have also seen severe declines [4]. Market Capitalization - As of February 5, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.39 trillion, a decrease of approximately 43% from $4.19 trillion in early October [5]. Causes of the Downturn - The recent market crash is attributed to a typical process of risk asset deleveraging and revaluation, exacerbated by concentrated liquidations and liquidity discounts [5]. - A significant single-day crash on October 11, 2025, saw over $19 billion liquidated, affecting approximately 1.64 million investors [5]. - The downturn is also linked to macroeconomic changes and the impact of leverage in the market, which amplifies volatility [6]. Liquidation Events - In the latest downturn, over 205,430 investors were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $955 million, equivalent to 66 billion yuan [7]. - The phenomenon is described as a "long squeeze," where the breach of key support levels triggers automatic liquidations, leading to further price declines [7]. Risks Associated with Leverage - High-risk leveraged trading magnifies market volatility, leading to significant losses for investors when prices move unfavorably [8]. - Key risks include liquidity issues, counterparty risks, and potential system congestion during extreme market fluctuations [8]. Future Outlook - The cryptocurrency market remains sensitive to macroeconomic policies and liquidity expectations, with potential for further declines if concerns about tightening liquidity persist [9]. - Analysts suggest that if macroeconomic uncertainties ease and leverage is sufficiently cleared, the market may enter a phase of stabilization and recovery [9].

目前这轮加密市场"跌跌不休"，可以理解为多重外部利空（贵金属、美股回调、IPO 抽血、货币政策预期转向）叠加内部资金结构问题，在 10 月大跌后把 原本"没来得及跑"的那部分筹码也一起洗出去，导致趋势从"强震荡"演变成更明确的熊市段落。 在这种背景下，用"刻舟法"类周期经验来估算，本轮自顶部 起计约一年左右见真正周期低点是有历史参考性的，大方向落在今年 9 月附近，而价格区间大概率会回踩到接近上一轮牛市高点（约 6 万）一带形成阶段底 部，但过程中会有数次剧烈反弹和情绪反复。 白银兼具贵金属和工业金属属性，对宏观预期更敏感，历史上白银在急涨后的暴跌，往往伴随大量杠杆多头被强平、追加保证金，机构为了满足保证金要 求，会优先卖出流动性更强、交易更方便的资产，其中就包括比特币、以太坊这类可以快速变现的标的。 从宏观资产视角看，近期不仅是币圈在回调，黄金、白银以及美股本身也出现了动能减弱甚至高位滞涨、回调的信号，这说明"风险资产整体在去杠杆"，而 不是加密单独出问题。 贵金属的"被动连坐"逻辑 黄金在地缘风险和通胀预期高企时往往走出一波避险行情，但一旦通胀下行、实际利率抬升或市场开始交易"更长时间的高利率"，黄金往往 ...