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欧洲央行降息预期遇阻 通胀数据推升政策担忧
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-11 04:22
Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar, currently trading around 1.1670, with a 0.27% increase from the previous close of 1.1639. This movement is influenced by higher-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone, which may impact future monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) [1][1][1]. Economic Indicators - Eurozone's July CPI preliminary year-on-year rate recorded at 2.0%, exceeding the expected 1.9%. The core CPI year-on-year rate met expectations at 2.3% [1][1][1]. - The persistent inflation pressures suggest that inflation may remain above the ECB's expectations for several quarters, reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts [1][1][1]. Market Implications - The market is advised to be cautious regarding the potential re-pricing of interest rate cut expectations due to the inflation data, which reflects concerns over the ECB's future policy path [1][1][1]. - Increased volatility in risk assets is anticipated as inflation pressures continue [1][1][1]. Technical Analysis - The euro has gained bullish momentum after breaking the 1.1600 resistance level, with the daily relative strength index (RSI) surpassing the 50.0 mark. However, the 4-hour RSI has entered the overbought territory [1][1][1]. - The next bullish target is identified in the 1.1700-1.1710 range, which coincides with significant Fibonacci retracement levels and previous low points. A notable resistance is expected in this area, with the July 24 high of 1.1790 being a key focus for further upward movement [1][1][1].