德国去年末通胀放缓幅度超出预期，这为欧洲央行维持政策方向提供了支撑。 联邦统计局周二公布的数据显示，12月消费者价格指数上升2%，前月为上升2.6%。此前彭博调查得出 的预期中值为2.2%。 此前，法国今晨及西班牙上周发布的报告同样显示价格压力有所缓解。欧元区数据将于周三公布，经济 学家预测通胀率将达到2%的目标值。 政策制定者已表示对通胀重回可控范围充满信心。尽管欧洲央行最新预测显示今年和明年的价格涨幅将 低于目标值，但偏差幅度较小 —— 服务行业价格粘性仍值得关注。 此前，法国今晨及西班牙上周发布的报告同样显示价格压力有所缓解。欧元区数据将于周三公布，经济 学家预测通胀率将达到2%的目标值。 政策制定者已表示对通胀重回可控范围充满信心。尽管欧洲央行最新预测显示今年和明年的价格涨幅将 低于目标值，但偏差幅度较小 —— 服务行业价格粘性仍值得关注。 行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德特别指出工资涨幅意外强劲，并强调官员们将保持"谦逊"态度，尽可能深入研 究数据。 责任编辑：刘明亮 行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德特别指出工资涨幅意外强劲，并强调官员们将保持"谦逊"态度，尽可能深入研 究数据。 责任编辑：刘明亮 德国去年末通胀放缓幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reaffirms that AI-driven investment demand will continue to grow, leading to an expansion in the credit market, with total investment-grade bond issuance expected to surge to $2.25 trillion, while credit spreads will only widen modestly [1][3]. Group 1: AI Investment and Credit Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that U.S. investment-grade bond issuance will reach $2.25 trillion in 2026, a 25% year-over-year increase, with net issuance expected to hit $1 trillion, reflecting a 60% year-over-year growth [7]. - The firm believes that credit markets will be the primary funding channel for the next wave of AI investments, which are expected to be relatively insensitive to macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates and economic growth [4]. - There is a divergence in client feedback regarding the growth expectations from AI capital expenditures, with some questioning why higher growth is not anticipated [5]. Group 2: Factors Stabilizing Credit Spreads - Morgan Stanley argues that several factors will help stabilize credit spreads despite the anticipated surge in bond issuance, including a majority of AI-related issuances coming from high-quality issuers (AA-AAA rated) [8]. - Continued policy easing, with expectations of three more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, is also seen as a stabilizing factor [9]. - The firm anticipates a mild economic re-acceleration and ongoing demand from yield-seeking investors will further anchor credit spreads [9]. Group 3: Central Bank Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve's policy path remains a focal point of market debate, with Morgan Stanley expecting a rate cut in December, despite mixed signals from the labor market [10]. - The firm also predicts that the European Central Bank will implement two additional rate cuts by 2026, contradicting the ECB's president's assertion that the anti-inflation process has ended [10]. Group 4: Yield Curve Dynamics - Morgan Stanley defines 2026 as a "transition year" for global interest rates, moving from synchronized tightening to asynchronous normalization, with a consensus on the yield curve maintaining a range-bound pattern [11]. - There is ongoing debate regarding the nature of the yield curve steepening, whether it will be driven by falling rates (bull steepening) or rising long-term rates (bear steepening) [11].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) must remain vigilant against inflationary risks and resist the temptation to make minor adjustments to its policies [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB Governing Council, highlighted the need to be cautious about upward inflation risks due to uncertainties in supply chains, energy costs, and unexpectedly strong potential price pressures [1] - Kazimir emphasized that these factors indicate a persistent risk that officials must acknowledge, warning against complacency at this stage [1] Group 2: Policy Stance - Despite the inflation concerns, Kazimir reaffirmed the ECB's position that its policies are well-positioned to address the challenges posed by the current turbulent environment [1] - He advised the central bank to avoid being overly aggressive, even if short-term forecasts suggest that price pressures may not meet the ECB's targets [1]

Group 1 - Recent US economic data remains robust, leading to a decrease in market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a December rate cut dropping from 90% to below 70% [1] - The strong performance of the US dollar is supported by high interest rates and signs of economic expansion, with the dollar index maintaining above 99.50 [1] - The European Central Bank decided to keep its main interest rates unchanged, aligning with market expectations, while the Eurozone inflation has decreased to 2.1%, indicating weak growth momentum [1] Group 2 - The strong US dollar is hindering the rebound of gold prices, which saw a temporary increase of over 2% but remains under pressure due to the Fed's tight policy and declining rate cut expectations [2] - Gold is experiencing limited upward movement due to reduced safe-haven demand and the strengthening dollar, resulting in a short-term inability to break through resistance levels [2] - Market focus is expected to shift back to central bank policy signals as key inflation and employment data are released in the coming weeks, highlighting the need for vigilance regarding monetary policy and global economic changes [2]

Core Insights - The direction of inflation changes in the U.S. may cause concern for the Federal Reserve [1] - A decline in U.S. Treasury yields signals a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - U.S. inflation rate in September is expected to reach a 17-month high [3] Inflation Analysis - The U.S. September CPI data is likely to show a growth rate similar to August, with energy prices rising by 0.7% in August and expected to show rapid growth in September [1] - The overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are anticipated to be close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target by one percentage point [1][3] - The increase in inflation is attributed to the impact of tariffs, with the overall price index expected to rise by 3.1% year-on-year [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - U.S. investors predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in meetings on October 29 and December 10, with a nearly 97% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October [2] - The European Central Bank is expected to reiterate its September stance in the upcoming October meeting, indicating stability in its policy [4] - The Bank of Korea appears less dovish, with expectations of a potential rate cut in November [5] Currency and Exchange Rate Projections - CITIC Securities forecasts a moderate appreciation of the RMB in 2026, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy [3] - The Indonesian central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, maintaining a cautious stance amid global uncertainties [5]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to replicate its September decisions in the upcoming October meeting, indicating a stable economic outlook without significant new guidance [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Policy Meeting Expectations** - The ECB's October policy meeting is anticipated to be a "copy-paste" of the September decision, reaffirming that the economy is in a "good state" [1][2]. - The meeting is not expected to provide much new guidance but will reiterate the same information as in September [1][2]. - **Future Projections** - There is a likelihood that the ECB will begin to mention the staff forecasts that will be published in December [1][2]. - Currently, the ECB is waiting for any directional signs in the macroeconomic environment to guide its policy actions [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound in dollar demand has suppressed the buying power of the euro against the dollar, leading to a reversal of most gains made after Powell's speech last Friday, where the EUR/USD pair had briefly surpassed the 1.1700 mark [1][6]. Technical Analysis - The initial resistance for the EUR/USD is at the July 24 high of 1.1788, with further resistance at the year-to-date high of 1.1830 reached on July 1. A breakthrough of 1.1830 could lead to testing the September 3, 2021 high of 1.1909, which is close to the 1.2000 level [3]. - Temporary support is located at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1488, followed by the August 1 low of 1.1391 and the May 29 low of 1.1210 [3]. - Momentum indicators show a lack of clear direction, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to around 51, suggesting limited upside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is below 11, indicating a sideways trend [3]. Market Outlook - The EUR/USD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with the dollar likely to dominate the overall trend until a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance or new trade-related developments occur [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data includes a decline in durable goods orders by 4.0%, with non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rising by 0.3%. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone was reported at 87, below the consensus of 90 [6]. Trade Relations - The trade tensions have eased with the U.S. and China extending the tariff truce for 90 days, delaying new tariff measures. Current tariffs remain high, with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on Chinese imports and China imposing a 10% tariff on U.S. goods [7]. Central Bank Perspectives - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Powell's balanced remarks contrasting with the dovish stance of other board members. Upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report and inflation data, are critical for future policy decisions [8]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde stated that the Eurozone economy is "robust, even slightly better than expected," but markets do not anticipate rate cuts until spring 2026 [9]. Speculative Sentiment - Speculative long positions in the euro have increased to nearly 118,700 contracts, a three-week high, while institutional investors have reduced short positions to about 166,400 contracts, a two-week low. Open interest has risen for the second consecutive week, reaching approximately 825,200 contracts [10].

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar, currently trading around 1.1670, with a 0.27% increase from the previous close of 1.1639. This movement is influenced by higher-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone, which may impact future monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) [1][1][1]. Economic Indicators - Eurozone's July CPI preliminary year-on-year rate recorded at 2.0%, exceeding the expected 1.9%. The core CPI year-on-year rate met expectations at 2.3% [1][1][1]. - The persistent inflation pressures suggest that inflation may remain above the ECB's expectations for several quarters, reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts [1][1][1]. Market Implications - The market is advised to be cautious regarding the potential re-pricing of interest rate cut expectations due to the inflation data, which reflects concerns over the ECB's future policy path [1][1][1]. - Increased volatility in risk assets is anticipated as inflation pressures continue [1][1][1]. Technical Analysis - The euro has gained bullish momentum after breaking the 1.1600 resistance level, with the daily relative strength index (RSI) surpassing the 50.0 mark. However, the 4-hour RSI has entered the overbought territory [1][1][1]. - The next bullish target is identified in the 1.1700-1.1710 range, which coincides with significant Fibonacci retracement levels and previous low points. A notable resistance is expected in this area, with the July 24 high of 1.1790 being a key focus for further upward movement [1][1][1].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations, indicating that the euro is still near its historical average level, and believes that its current stable and prudent policy is appropriate [1] Group 1 - The ECB's governing council member Kazaks stated that the euro remains close to its historical average [1] - The ECB will continue to monitor exchange rate volatility [1] - The current stable and prudent policy of the ECB is deemed suitable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that the bank is not confirming a pause in its monetary policy [1] Group 1 - Lagarde emphasized that the current economic conditions do not guarantee a halt in policy adjustments [1] - The ECB is closely monitoring inflation and economic growth indicators to inform future decisions [1] - There is an ongoing assessment of the impact of previous interest rate hikes on the economy [1]