Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) must remain vigilant against inflationary risks and resist the temptation to make minor adjustments to its policies [1] Group 1: Inflation Risks - Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB Governing Council, highlighted the need to be cautious about upward inflation risks due to uncertainties in supply chains, energy costs, and unexpectedly strong potential price pressures [1] - Kazimir emphasized that these factors indicate a persistent risk that officials must acknowledge, warning against complacency at this stage [1] Group 2: Policy Stance - Despite the inflation concerns, Kazimir reaffirmed the ECB's position that its policies are well-positioned to address the challenges posed by the current turbulent environment [1] - He advised the central bank to avoid being overly aggressive, even if short-term forecasts suggest that price pressures may not meet the ECB's targets [1]

近期美国经济数据稳健，美联储官员继续释放强硬信号，使市场对年底降息的预期明显降温。12月降息 概率已从九成回落至七成以下，强化了美元的吸引力。美元指数稳站99.50上方，表现出较强韧性。当 前利率高企、经济扩张迹象仍存，为美元提供了持续支撑，而黄金则因收益率上升压力而承压。 日本10月东京CPI同比增速升至2.8%，显示通胀持续高企。美元/日元因此攀升至154.50附近，为数月来 高位。日本首相高市早苗与财务大臣片山皋月均对汇率波动表达关注，强调政府将密切监控外汇市场， 防范日元过度贬值风险。然而市场认为，日本央行短期内仍难以实质性干预，使得日元维持弱势格局。 美元强势使黄金反弹受阻。尽管金价周四上涨逾2%，暂时扭转连续四日下跌的局面，但在周五早盘陷 入窄幅整理，徘徊于4000美元上方。投资者普遍认为，在美联储政策仍偏紧、降息预期下降的背景下， 黄金的上行空间有限。避险需求减弱与美元走强形成叠加，令金价短线难以形成持续突破。 欧洲央行最新议息会议维持主要利率不变，符合市场预期。行长拉加德表示，政策方向仍需依据未来经 济数据而定，不会过早承诺降息路径。欧元区通胀降至2.1%，但增长动能依然疲软。受此影响，欧元/ ...

Core Insights - The direction of inflation changes in the U.S. may cause concern for the Federal Reserve [1] - A decline in U.S. Treasury yields signals a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - U.S. inflation rate in September is expected to reach a 17-month high [3] Inflation Analysis - The U.S. September CPI data is likely to show a growth rate similar to August, with energy prices rising by 0.7% in August and expected to show rapid growth in September [1] - The overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are anticipated to be close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target by one percentage point [1][3] - The increase in inflation is attributed to the impact of tariffs, with the overall price index expected to rise by 3.1% year-on-year [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - U.S. investors predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in meetings on October 29 and December 10, with a nearly 97% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October [2] - The European Central Bank is expected to reiterate its September stance in the upcoming October meeting, indicating stability in its policy [4] - The Bank of Korea appears less dovish, with expectations of a potential rate cut in November [5] Currency and Exchange Rate Projections - CITIC Securities forecasts a moderate appreciation of the RMB in 2026, influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy [3] - The Indonesian central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, maintaining a cautious stance amid global uncertainties [5]

【10月23日消息,瑞典北欧斯安银行专家预计欧洲 央行10月会议"复制粘贴"9月决定】瑞典北欧斯 安银行学家马库斯?怀德和皮亚?弗罗姆莱特在报告 中指出,欧洲央行10月政策会议预计是9月决定 的"复制粘贴",会再次声明"处于良好状态"。 此次会议不会提供多少指引,但会重申与9月相同信 息。另外,很可能开始提及将于12月公布的欧洲央 行工作人员预测。目前,欧洲央行正在等待宏观环 境中任何方向的迹象,以指导其政策行动。 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 【10月23日消息，瑞典北欧斯安银行专家预计欧洲央行10月会议"复制粘贴"9月决定】瑞典北欧斯安银 行学家马库斯?怀德和皮亚?弗罗姆莱特在报告中指出，欧洲央行10月政策会议预计是9月决定的"复制粘 贴"，会再次声明"处于良好状态"。此次会议不会提供多少指引，但会重申与9月相同信息。另外，很可 能开始提及将于12月公布的欧洲央行工作人员预测。目前，欧洲央行正在等待宏观环境中任何方向的迹 象，以指导其政策行动。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 10.23 14:42:15 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strong rebound in dollar demand has suppressed the buying power of the euro against the dollar, leading to a reversal of most gains made after Powell's speech last Friday, where the EUR/USD pair had briefly surpassed the 1.1700 mark [1][6]. Technical Analysis - The initial resistance for the EUR/USD is at the July 24 high of 1.1788, with further resistance at the year-to-date high of 1.1830 reached on July 1. A breakthrough of 1.1830 could lead to testing the September 3, 2021 high of 1.1909, which is close to the 1.2000 level [3]. - Temporary support is located at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1488, followed by the August 1 low of 1.1391 and the May 29 low of 1.1210 [3]. - Momentum indicators show a lack of clear direction, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping to around 51, suggesting limited upside potential, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) is below 11, indicating a sideways trend [3]. Market Outlook - The EUR/USD is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern in the short term, with the dollar likely to dominate the overall trend until a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy stance or new trade-related developments occur [4][5]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data includes a decline in durable goods orders by 4.0%, with non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rising by 0.3%. Consumer confidence in the Eurozone was reported at 87, below the consensus of 90 [6]. Trade Relations - The trade tensions have eased with the U.S. and China extending the tariff truce for 90 days, delaying new tariff measures. Current tariffs remain high, with the U.S. imposing a 30% tariff on Chinese imports and China imposing a 10% tariff on U.S. goods [7]. Central Bank Perspectives - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Powell's balanced remarks contrasting with the dovish stance of other board members. Upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report and inflation data, are critical for future policy decisions [8]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde stated that the Eurozone economy is "robust, even slightly better than expected," but markets do not anticipate rate cuts until spring 2026 [9]. Speculative Sentiment - Speculative long positions in the euro have increased to nearly 118,700 contracts, a three-week high, while institutional investors have reduced short positions to about 166,400 contracts, a two-week low. Open interest has risen for the second consecutive week, reaching approximately 825,200 contracts [10].

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar, currently trading around 1.1670, with a 0.27% increase from the previous close of 1.1639. This movement is influenced by higher-than-expected inflation data from the Eurozone, which may impact future monetary policy decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) [1][1][1]. Economic Indicators - Eurozone's July CPI preliminary year-on-year rate recorded at 2.0%, exceeding the expected 1.9%. The core CPI year-on-year rate met expectations at 2.3% [1][1][1]. - The persistent inflation pressures suggest that inflation may remain above the ECB's expectations for several quarters, reducing the likelihood of further interest rate cuts [1][1][1]. Market Implications - The market is advised to be cautious regarding the potential re-pricing of interest rate cut expectations due to the inflation data, which reflects concerns over the ECB's future policy path [1][1][1]. - Increased volatility in risk assets is anticipated as inflation pressures continue [1][1][1]. Technical Analysis - The euro has gained bullish momentum after breaking the 1.1600 resistance level, with the daily relative strength index (RSI) surpassing the 50.0 mark. However, the 4-hour RSI has entered the overbought territory [1][1][1]. - The next bullish target is identified in the 1.1700-1.1710 range, which coincides with significant Fibonacci retracement levels and previous low points. A notable resistance is expected in this area, with the July 24 high of 1.1790 being a key focus for further upward movement [1][1][1].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations, indicating that the euro is still near its historical average level, and believes that its current stable and prudent policy is appropriate [1] Group 1 - The ECB's governing council member Kazaks stated that the euro remains close to its historical average [1] - The ECB will continue to monitor exchange rate volatility [1] - The current stable and prudent policy of the ECB is deemed suitable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, stated that the bank is not confirming a pause in its monetary policy [1] Group 1 - Lagarde emphasized that the current economic conditions do not guarantee a halt in policy adjustments [1] - The ECB is closely monitoring inflation and economic growth indicators to inform future decisions [1] - There is an ongoing assessment of the impact of previous interest rate hikes on the economy [1]