贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/10 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3300.15 36.59 1373.00 1115.00 68.38 9660.50 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1320.91 | 947.37 | 14966.24 | 1323.23 | 1 | 2 | | 变化 | - | -13.82 | 0.86 | 31.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 贵 金 属 比 价 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和 ...

周低点1.1717为初步支撑位，进一步支撑看向2025年前期高点1.1631。若跌破后者，可能会为更深幅度 的下跌打开空间，指向1.1500区域，但目前来看，进一步下跌的可能性不大。另一方面，1.1830为 immediate阻力位，随后是1.1900区域——该货币对在2021年7月至9月期间曾在该区域见顶。若明确突破 该区域，将指向1.2000这一心理关口。 副行长金多斯近日明确警示市场，若欧元兑美元汇率突破1.20心理关口，可能使货币政策环境"更趋复 杂化"。无独有偶，执委斯姆库斯也强调需要"密切监控欧元升值速度"，暗示汇率过快上涨可能影响通 胀目标的实现。然而，葡萄牙央行行长森特诺与爱沙尼亚央行行长穆勒则持相对乐观立场。他们认为当 前汇率水平恰如其分地反映了欧元区经济基本面的改善，特别是区内经济展现出的强劲韧性。两位行长 更着重指出，国际投资者对欧元资产配置兴趣的持续升温，实际上有利于提升欧元的国际储备货币地 位，这种结构性变化对欧元区的长期金融稳定具有积极意义。这种政策立场的分化，凸显了欧洲央行在 应对汇率波动时面临的多重政策考量：既要防范短期汇率超调对出口和通胀的冲击，又不能忽视欧元国 际化带来的长 ...

Dollar Index - The dollar index showed volatility on Tuesday, reaching a high of 97.816 and a low of 97.151, closing at 97.471 [1] - The price initially tested support before a strong upward movement, breaking daily resistance during the US trading session [1] - The focus is on whether the index can maintain its position above the four-hour support and daily resistance levels [1] Multi-Timeframe Analysis - On the weekly level, the dollar index faces resistance around the 99 area, indicating a bearish trend in the medium term [2] - The daily key resistance is at 97.40, with the price currently testing this area [2] - The four-hour support is at 97.30, and the price is expected to remain bullish as long as it stays above this level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Monday, with a high of 3345.68 and a low of 3286.89, closing at 3301.47 [4] - The price faced resistance at the daily level, leading to a weak performance and a new weekly low [4] - The weekly support level is at 3311, and the price has broken below this, suggesting a bearish outlook [5] Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Gold - The four-hour support has become a key resistance after being broken, with a focus on the 3320 area [5] - The price is expected to remain bearish below this level, with targets set at 3275-3250 [7] Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair showed an upward trend on Tuesday, with a low of 1.1682 and a high of 1.1765, closing at 1.1724 [7] - The monthly support is at 1.0950, indicating a long-term bullish outlook [7] - The daily focus is on the 1.1700 level and the previous low, with potential for further movement depending on market conditions [7] Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Euro/USD - The four-hour resistance is at 1.1730, with a trendline resistance between 1.1760-70 [7] - A bearish position is suggested in the 1.1760-70 range, with targets set at 1.0700-1.0640 [9]

欧元兑美元涨0.15%，暂报1.1725 美国商务部长卢特尼克称，欧盟已经给出了实实在在的一系列贸易协议方案。 总统特朗普收到了欧盟的提议，正在考虑如何应对。 欧盟暗示，将对美国开放市场。 特朗普在（针对日本和韩国等的）贸易信函中留出关税税率灵活性。 | 1m | 5m | 15m | 30m 1H 4H | 1D 1W 1M | | | | N | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1725 | | | | | | | MM | | | 4.1720 | | | | | | | | | | 1.1715 | | | | | | | | | | 1.1710 | | | | | | | | | | 1.4705 | | | | | | | | | | | | | MM | | | | | | | 1.1700 | | | | | | | | | | 1.1600:11 | | 00:28 | 00:45 | 01:02 01:19 | 01:36 | 01:53 | | 02:1 | | 昨收:1.1707 今开: 1.17 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces risks of inflation remaining below the 2% target, prompting a need for continued supportive monetary policy [1][2] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The ECB has lowered interest rates by 200 basis points to a neutral level of 2% since June of the previous year, but the economic growth outlook remains bleak [2] - The ECB predicts inflation will stay below the target for 18 months starting from Q3 2025, with a return to the 2% target not expected until early 2027 [2] Group 2: Currency Impact - The euro has appreciated against the dollar, trading at 1.1741, with a 0.28% increase, which may further suppress inflation and pressure economic growth [1][2] - The euro is currently in an overbought state but maintains a long-term bullish trend, with the weekly chart showing higher highs and higher lows [2] Group 3: Risks and Support - Downside risks include cheap imports from China, low energy prices, lack of tariff retaliation, a strong euro, and slowing wage growth, leading to limited upside risks overall [2] - The ECB's stance is supported by Germany's significant fiscal expansion plans, which are expected to provide a substantial boost to the economy [2]

欧元兑美元EUR/USD短线走高近20点，现报1.1701。 欧元/美元 ...

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/07/07 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3331.90 36.89 1378.00 1122.00 - 9871.50 | 交 易 数 据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1339.75 | - | - | 1357.85 | 1 | 2 | | 变化 | - | -1.04 | - | - | 0.00 | -1.00 | 1.00 | 贵 金 属 比 价 免责声明: 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源：彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力 ...

宏观面 近期黄金市场受多因素交织影响。地缘政治上，特朗普将与内塔尼亚胡商讨加沙冲突停火，若达成 60 天停火及人质交换协议，黄金避险需求短期会被削 弱，但地缘政治复杂多变，冲突再起时需求将回升。关税方面，原 7 月 9 日到期的关税暂停令，美财长暗示改为 8 月 1 日对未达成协议国家重启，市场担忧 有所缓解。美国财政政策上，大规模减税支出法案通过，债务预期大增引发市场对财政可持续性的担忧。美联储货币政策取向成关键，市场对其降息预期分 化，虽经济数据强劲，但仍预计 2025 年或有两次降息。降息对黄金影响双面，短期或引发波动，长期因宽松倾向提供支撑。总体而言，黄金市场机遇与挑 战并存，地缘政治、财政政策、关税及货币政策共同作用，投资者需密切关注贸易谈判、美联储会议纪要等动态把握投资机会。 美元指数 黄金方面，上周五黄金价格总体呈现上涨的状态，当日价格最高上涨至3344.95位置，最低下跌至3323.47位置，收盘于3337.02位置。针对上周五黄金在早盘 期间先获得支撑后再度反弹，同时在价格向上触及至日线及四小时阻力位置后压制，由于市场处于假期影响，整体波幅不大，对于后续整体继续关注承压， 下方3311位置周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariff policy is causing significant turmoil in global markets, with mixed signals from the Trump administration leading to confusion about the effective dates of tariffs [1][13]. Market Reactions - Asian stock markets mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225 and Thailand's SET index both dropping approximately 0.5%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index fell by 0.6% [1]. - U.S. stock index futures also faced pressure, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both down about 0.5% [1]. - Commodity prices generally decreased, with gold dropping over $20 to $3314 per ounce, and copper falling for the third consecutive day to $9821 per ton [1][6]. Commodity Market Impact - The uncertainty in trade policies has led to widespread declines in commodity prices, with iron ore prices in Singapore down 0.3% to $95.60 per ton, and futures for steel in Dalian and Shanghai also declining [6]. - Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.6% to $67.8 per barrel, while WTI crude oil prices decreased by 1.4% to $64.7 per barrel, influenced by both tariff policies and OPEC+ decisions to increase production [7]. Bond Market Response - There was an increase in demand for safe-haven bonds, with the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropping nearly 2 basis points to 4.326% [10]. - The U.S. dollar index slightly rose to 97.071, while the euro to dollar exchange rate remained stable at 1.1771, close to last week's high of 1.1830 [10].

Group 1 - Non-US currencies experienced a widespread decline, with the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) dropping 60 points to 1.1723 [1] - The British Pound against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) fell over 50 points, reaching 1.3597 [1] - The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) saw a short-term increase of 60 points [1]