2025-10-10 17:03:40 作者：狼叫兽 随着2025年第四季度的到来，全球市场正面临前所未有的不确定性。美联储开启宽松货币政策周期、全球经济增长持续放缓，叠加特朗普强硬关税政策， 多重因素交织，令四季度的全球市场行情扑朔迷离。在此背景下，投资者急需权威、前瞻且具实操性的市场洞察。一起来看看由ATFX全球精英分析师团 队倾力打造的2025年第四季度《交易杂志》如何拨开迷雾、厘清方向。 2025年第四季度全球经济展望 ATFX专业分析师团队预测，全球经济正步入"分化加剧"的新阶段——部分经济体显现复苏动能，另一些则深陷增长停滞，这种"僵局与动力并存"的格 局，根源在于全球主要央行货币政策路径的显著分歧、新一轮关税政策的冲击，以及持续升级的跨境贸易与技术摩擦。 美国指数 关键词：就业市场疲软、降息预期升温、关税 在该板块中，ATFX分析团队指出："曾经强劲的美国就业市场正在显露出裂痕，这正在改变投资者和交易者的一切。"但需要注意问题并非只有美国就业 市场疲软的问题，对于美联储来说，这是一种明显的信号，表明如果利率长时间保持过高，可能会使经济陷入更深的衰退。因此，美联储"降息"也是本季 度的主旋律。在此 ...

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 美元指数周四攀升0.6%，至接近两个月高点的水平，这代表以美元计价的黄金对海外买家来说，变得相对昂贵。 2. 根据美国存托信托公司(DTCC)数据，本周每日看涨美元的结构性交易量都超过看跌头寸，显示市场信心迅速转向支持美元 3. 哈马斯表示，已达成协议以结束加沙战争，确保以色列撤军，并实现人质与囚犯的交换。哈马斯呼吁特朗普及担保国确保以色列落实加沙停火协 议。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： | 黄金 (XAUUSD) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏空 | 日内方向 | | | | 3987 阻力 | | 4000 | 4011 | | 3950 支撑 | | 3941 | 3928 | | 动能 | 动力强（实时变化）全品种量化周期大于３年，参考价值≥67.1% | | | | 欧元兑美元 (EURUSD) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日图 K 线呈现: 偏空 日内方向 | | | | | 1.15 ...

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/10 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 4019.25 49.71 1571.00 1235.00 - 10867.50 变化 193.95 3.53 -18.00 -22.00 - 485.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 - 1.16 1.33 - - 变化 - -0.02 -0.01 - - 交 易 数 据 日期 COMEX白银 库存 上期所白银 库存 黄金ETF持仓 白银ETF持仓 上金所白银 库存 上金所黄金 递延费支付方向 上金所白银 递延费支付方向 最新 - 1186.85 1013.44 - - 1 1 变化 - -5.43 0.56 - - 0.00 0.00 贵 金 属 比 价 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan is likely to have its first female prime minister. A shutdown over 15 days may affect the release of important economic data. If Koike Sanae is elected, it may impact Sino - Japanese relations and market risk preference [7]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economy continues to stabilize. The manufacturing PMI is 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The non - manufacturing PMI drops 0.3 points to 50.0. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active [7]. - Asset view: In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's October rate cut and the BoJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. In the fourth quarter, maintain the asset allocation order of equities > commodities > bonds [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: All major stock index futures showed gains. The CSI 300 futures had a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date increase of 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, 1.54%, and 19.59% respectively. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also had positive performances [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most treasury bond futures had small increases, except for the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a year - to - date decline of 0.56% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat on the day, with different trends in other currency pairs. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged on the day, while the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate had a weekly increase of 3.52% [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Some interest rates had minor changes, such as the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield decreasing by 2.7 bp [3]. 3.2 Hot Industries - Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals had positive daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and year - to - date performances. For example, the non - ferrous metals index had a year - to - date increase of 33.42% [3]. - Some industries such as food and beverage, automotive, and defense and military had mixed performances, with some showing daily declines but positive long - term trends [3]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: Crude oil futures (NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent) had small daily increases but year - to - date declines. Natural gas prices were mostly down, with NYMEX natural gas having a daily decline of 5.14% [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver had significant year - to - date increases, with COMEX gold up 53.85% year - to - date [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals showed positive long - term trends, but some had daily fluctuations [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products had diverse performances. For example, CBOT soybeans had a year - to - date increase of 1.96%, while ICE 2 - cotton had a year - to - date decline of 5.03% [3]. 3.4 Other Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe had a significant daily decline of 50.38% [4]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to show positive trends, with silver having a year - to - date increase of 49.52% [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper, tin, and other metals had positive price movements, while some like alumina had a weak fundamental situation [4]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials showed a mixed performance, with some like iron ore having a positive year - to - date performance and others like silicon iron having a decline [4]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil had a year - to - date decline of 15.88%. Most chemical products showed a trend of price fluctuations and were in a state of supply - demand adjustment [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Some agricultural products like soybeans and peanuts had different price trends, with peanuts having a year - to - date decline of 2.83% [4]. 3.5 Market Outlook by Sector - **Financial**: Stock markets had a shrinking - volume rebound, and bond markets remained weak. Stock index futures were expected to rise in a volatile manner, while bond futures were expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver were expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention was paid to the rate of freight price decline, and the container shipping route to Europe was expected to be volatile [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: A negative feedback was difficult to form, and the sector was expected to remain volatile before the holiday [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Supply disruptions continued to ferment, and most metals were expected to be volatile, with some like copper expected to rise in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The crude oil market continued to be volatile, and the chemical market was mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [10]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, oilseeds and meal were hit. Most agricultural products were expected to be volatile [10].

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/09 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3825.30 46.18 1589.00 1257.00 62.37 10382.00 变化 -1.55 -0.77 37.00 -18.00 -1.08 118.00 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.82 1.17 1.34 147.93 1.80 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | 16491.06 | 1192.28 | 1012.88 | 15685.09 | - | 1 | 1 | | 变化 | -39.95 | 2.63 | 1.15 | 163.74 | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 贵 金 ...

美元指数 在美元指数的表现上，周二美元指数呈现出上涨的态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至98.636的位置，最低则下探至98.059位置，最终以98.561的价格收 盘。回顾周二市场整体表现，价格在早盘期间依托前一日凌晨回撤的低点位置震荡上涨，随后延续上涨状态，当天收盘在高位，日线大阳收尾。 从多周期分析，周线级别来看近期价格在周线关键上下盘整，目前周线支撑于97.90区域，后续持续关注价格周线收盘在此位置上方，一旦收盘在此位置上 方则后续将中线发力上涨。从日线级别看，随着时间的推移目前日线支撑于97.90区域，价格此位置之上波段进一步上涨。从四小时上看，在上周初价格承 压于四小时阻力位置，在上周四价格突破上涨，之后周五再度回踩至日线及四小时支撑，整体目前四小时支撑于98.40-50位置，价格在此位置之上短线维持 多。一小时上看目前价格测试到短线趋势线阻力区域，从空间上看价格均上涨150点后开始回撤修正，目前刚好空间到位，所以后续谨防调整，同时周一早 盘价格挑空缺口还没有回补，所以暂时关注四小时支撑得失，一旦下破关注回补缺口后再发力上涨，不破四小时支撑之前暂时维持多对待。 美指98.40-50区间多，防守5美金 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月2日纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.15%报97.88，非美货币多数下跌，欧元兑美元跌0.12%报 1.1717，英镑兑美元跌0.28%报1.3439，澳元兑美元跌0.26%报0.6596，美元兑日元涨0.12%报147.2685， 美元兑加元涨0.22%报1.3968，美元兑瑞郎涨0.11%报0.7980。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月1日纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.09%报97.74，非美货币多数上涨，欧元兑美元跌0.03%报 1.1731，英镑兑美元涨0.24%报1.3477，澳元兑美元持平报0.6613，美元兑日元跌0.57%报147.0915，美 元兑加元涨0.13%报1.3938，美元兑瑞郎涨0.09%报0.7971。 ...

Dollar Index - The dollar index showed a downward trend on Monday, with a high of 98.159 and a low of 97.747, closing at 97.913 [1] - The key resistance level is at 98, and if the price stabilizes above this level, it may continue to rise; otherwise, there is a risk of further declines [1] - Weekly support is at 97.80, while daily support is at 97.60, indicating potential for further upward movement if these levels hold [1] Gold - Gold prices increased on Monday, reaching a high of 3834 and a low of 3757.76, closing at 3833.69, marking a new historical high [3] - The monthly trend remains bullish, with 3000 as a critical long-term support level; prices above this level indicate a long-term bullish outlook [3] - Short-term support is at 3805, and as long as prices remain above this level, the bullish trend is expected to continue [3] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair experienced an upward trend on Monday, with a low of 1.1697 and a high of 1.1754, closing at 1.1726 [5] - The monthly support level is at 1.1060, and the weekly support is at 1.1700, which is crucial for the medium-term outlook [5] - The price is currently under pressure at the daily resistance level of 1.1750, and if it breaks below the 1.1710 support, further declines may be expected [5]

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/30 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3826.85 46.95 1552.00 1275.00 63.45 10264.00 变化 57.00 1.95 47.00 41.00 -2.27 -7.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.93 1.17 1.34 148.61 - 变化 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.89 - 交 易 数 据 日期 COMEX白银 库存 上期所白银 库存 黄金ETF持仓 白银ETF持仓 上金所白银 库存 上金所黄金 递延费支付方向 上金所白银 递延费支付方向 最新 16531.01 1189.65 1011.73 15521.35 1252.41 1 1 变化 35.45 31.38 6.01 159.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 贵 金 属 比 价 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源：彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的 ...