1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO reduces its surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 million tons, and StoneX estimates a 370 - million - ton surplus [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 883 thousand tons, cumulative sales are 91.6 thousand tons, and the sales rate is 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90 thousand tons, and the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 114.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108.2 thousand tons [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 89 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [4]. - As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 791.4 thousand tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]. - The sugar main contract 05 is expected to rebound in the short - term with oscillations, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 5300 [4]. - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a new - season global supply surplus, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish: Possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish: Increase in global sugar production, new - season global supply surplus, opening of the import profit window due to falling foreign sugar prices, and increased import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus, ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, and Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 883 thousand tons, cumulative sales are 91.6 thousand tons, and the sales rate is 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar (down 90 thousand tons year - on - year), and the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 114.4 thousand tons (down 108.2 thousand tons year - on - year) [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 89 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 791.4 thousand tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: July 30, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, New York raw sugar futures rebounded, with the main October contract rising 0.86% to 16.43 cents per pound. The rise in overnight crude oil prices boosted sugar prices. The market expects a significant increase in the production data of central - southern Brazil in the first half of July [7]. - Yesterday, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar strengthened. The 09 contract closed at 5,867 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan or 0.17%, with a reduction of 14,181 positions. Today, Zhengzhou sugar weakened following the foreign market. The far - month 01 contract was significantly stronger, and speculative funds showed a clear intention to go long. The 9 - 1 spread may further shrink [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: SR509 closed at 5,867 yuan per ton, up 0.17%, with a position reduction of 14,181 lots; SR601 closed at 5,731 yuan per ton, up 0.67%, with an increase of 24,979 lots; US sugar 10 closed at 16.43 cents per pound, up 0.86%, with a position reduction of 720 lots; US sugar 03 closed at 17.05 cents per pound, up 0.71%, with an increase of 168 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: Domestic spot prices in production areas remained stable, with Nanning sugar quoted at 6,060 yuan and Kunming sugar at 5,850 yuan [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Farmland Moisture in Guangxi**: In mid - July, the farmland moisture in Guangxi was over 90% suitable to excessive, with 16 points having excessive moisture, 22 points having suitable moisture, and 4 points having insufficient moisture [9]. - **Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil**: A survey of 23 analysts showed that sugar production in central - southern Brazil in the first half of July is expected to increase by 12.5% to 3.329 million tons, cane crushing volume is expected to increase by 11.3% to 48.31 million tons, and the sugar - cane ratio is expected to be 53.11%. Drought in July accelerated the harvest and increased the sugar - cane ratio, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the month [9]. - **Sugar Mill Clearance in Guangxi**: Tiandong Ertang Factory's "Dongxing" brand cleared its inventory, becoming the 7th sugar mill of Guangxi Nanhua to clear its inventory in the 24/25 crushing season, 2 more than the same period last year. Currently, only Longtian and Mianhuahua brands are still being quoted [9]. - **Customs Mutual Recognition Arrangement**: The "Mutual Recognition Arrangement" between the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China and the Customs Department of the Kingdom of Thailand will be officially implemented on August 1, 2025 [9]. - **Coca - Cola's New Product**: Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including spot trends, 2509 contract basis, SR9 - 1 spread, Brazilian raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading positions of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [15][18][21]