转自：期货日报 在国内外利空因素压制下，郑糖于1月下半月破位下行，呈现探底走势。短期在供应过剩的压力下，预 计郑糖仍将以弱势震荡为主。 全球糖市供应仍旧过剩 2025/2026榨季全球食糖产量预期总体乐观，食糖主产国预计产量增加，市场正转向供应过剩状态。 巴西本榨季食糖产量维持高位。截至2026年1月初，中南部地区生产已近尾声。尽管甘蔗压榨总量同比 下降2.28%，但糖厂为追求更高收益采取了重糖轻醇策略，将制糖比提升至50.82%，完全抵消了甘蔗单 产与含糖量下降的影响，推动糖产量同比微增0.86%，达到4022.2万吨。 印度本榨季开局强劲。截至2026年1月15日，印度全国糖产量已达1588.5万吨，同比增长21.6%。有利天 气和高产糖率共同推动增长。印度糖业协会预计本榨季食糖总产量可达3500万吨，其中约350万吨将转 产乙醇，净糖产量约3150万吨。印度国内食糖消费量预计2900万吨，加上期初库存，期末库存或达750 万吨。印度政府已批准150万吨食糖出口配额，但因印度国内糖价高企，实际出口情况仍有待观察。 泰国本榨季开榨进度明显慢于2025年同期。截至2026年1月17日，泰国累计入榨甘蔗和糖产量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO reduces its surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 million tons, and StoneX estimates a 370 - million - ton surplus [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 883 thousand tons, cumulative sales are 91.6 thousand tons, and the sales rate is 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90 thousand tons, and the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 114.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108.2 thousand tons [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 89 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [4]. - As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 791.4 thousand tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]. - The sugar main contract 05 is expected to rebound in the short - term with oscillations, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 5300 [4]. - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a new - season global supply surplus, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish: Possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish: Increase in global sugar production, new - season global supply surplus, opening of the import profit window due to falling foreign sugar prices, and increased import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus, ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, and Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 883 thousand tons, cumulative sales are 91.6 thousand tons, and the sales rate is 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar (down 90 thousand tons year - on - year), and the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 114.4 thousand tons (down 108.2 thousand tons year - on - year) [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 89 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 791.4 thousand tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the sugar industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The sugar market has a strong atmosphere, with the price of sugar showing certain changes and the supply - demand situation varying in different regions [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 15.17 cents per pound, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13 cents; the mainstream spot price is 5360 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan; the futures main contract price is 5285 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 16 yuan. The 15 - spread is 9 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 86 yuan; the 59 - spread is - 6 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2 yuan; the mainstream spot basis is 75 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - Precious metals and other commodities have risen significantly, creating a strong commodity atmosphere. As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons in November, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons. Attention should be paid to changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons), and a global sugar shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. As of December 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season decreased by 1.92 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 39.9 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons, and a cumulative MIX of 51.12%, a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points. As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons. As of December 22, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar season was 820,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral state [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with an expectation of a global sugar market supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. The ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.21 cents or 1.40%, settling at 15.20 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the number of sugar - cane crushing mills is increasing, and the industrial inventory of domestic sugar is in a seasonal growth trend. Although the sugar import volume in November decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the import progress slowed down significantly, the short - term sugar price mainly follows the upward trend of the external market price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 107 yuan; the main contract position was 466,130 lots, a decrease of 42,820 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 5038, an increase of 559; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 71,579 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 1102, a decrease of 79. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4103 yuan/ton, a rise of 36 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4151 yuan/ton, a rise of 36 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5240 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning, it was 5340 yuan/ton, a rise of 70 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou, it was 5400 yuan/ton, a rise of 40 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 47 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 47 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production in the country was 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 4.48 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of sugar in Guangxi was 237.4 million tons, a decrease of 90.3 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil were 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 593.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1124 yuan/ton, a rise of 25 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1076 yuan/ton, a rise of 25 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 28 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 14 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume was 44 million tons, a decrease of 31 million tons; the cumulative sugar import volume was 434 million tons, an increase of 44 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 130.3 million tons, an increase of 42 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1045.7 million tons, a decrease of 50.5 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 15.03%, a rise of 6.33%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 15.04%, a rise of 6.35%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.07%, a rise of 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.08%, a rise of 0.12% [2]. Industry News - As of now, 71 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, 3 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of about 581,000 tons, 13,000 tons less than last year. The mainstream quotation range of Guangxi Sugar Group is 5250 - 5370 yuan/ton. It is expected that 73 sugar mills will start crushing in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season, 1 less than the previous season. The remaining 2 non - crushing mills will finish starting up on December 25th and December 26th [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices continued to hit new lows this week, with the 05 main contract approaching the 5000 mark. The decline is nearing its end, and there is a short - term oversold rebound possibility. The risk of short - selling at the current position has increased [4][5][8]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include increased syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices below 15 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Sugar prices continued to decline this week. The 05 main contract reached around the 5000 mark. Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus, with ISO predicting 163 million tons, DATAGRO reducing the forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow increasing it to 740 million tons, and StoneX predicting 370 million tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and in October, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The sugar main 05 contract is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current position has a high risk of short - selling. After continuous decline, there may be a short - term oversold rebound [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided for this part. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, which is decreasing in the medium - long term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700 yuan/ton. Since January 2025, the import tariff of syrup has increased, close to the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. Trump approved the modification of the cola formula, which is long - term bullish for sugar [8]. - Bearish factors: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool predicts that the global sugar production will increase by 5.3% in the 25/26 season, reaching 199.1 million tons. USDA predicts that the global sugar production will increase by 4.7% and consumption will increase by 1.4% in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons [8]. - Supply - demand data: The supply - demand situation of the 25/26 season is predicted by different institutions. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth. ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%. Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [32]. - Production - related data: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sown and harvested areas of sugar crops, yields per hectare, and sugar production are presented. In 2025/26, the sown and harvested areas of sugar crops are 1.439 million hectares, the yield per hectare is 59.7 tons, and the sugar production is 11.7 million tons. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [34]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided for this part.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of new domestic sugar crops has increased year - on - year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face pressure on the upside and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Sugar Market Data - On December 2, 2025, the price in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5565, down 20; the price in Rizhao, Shandong was 5750, unchanged. The SR01 price was 5382, down 23; the SRO5 price was 5316, down 17. The SR01 - 05 spread was down 6. The basis of Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi to SR01 was 183, up 3; the basis of Rizhao, Shandong to SR01 was 268, up 23 [4]. International Market Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.0953, up 0.0043; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.74, unchanged; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 63.33, unchanged [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a return to a surplus pattern in the global sugar market, and raw sugar will remain under pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, the further decline space of raw sugar may be limited, but the surplus pattern restricts its rebound momentum, making it difficult to break out of the low - range oscillation range. The production prospects of Brazil in the 26/27 sugar season are still optimistic [4][5][64]. - Domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third consecutive year. In the short term, there is support, but as new sugar is listed in large quantities, the spot pressure will gradually increase. The medium - to - long - term trend may still be unoptimistic, and there is a possibility of a new low. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [4][6][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 White Sugar Market Review - The overall market traded around the expectation of increased global sugar supply in the 25/26 sugar season, showing an oscillatory downward trend throughout the year. The domestic market generally followed the international market, and the price strength was mainly affected by domestic production and sales progress and policies [12]. - The market can be divided into five stages: the first stage (January) was a bottom - finding and rebound; the second stage (February - March) was a multi - empty game; the third stage (April - June) was a weak decline; the fourth stage (July - September) was a low - level oscillation; the fifth stage (October to present) showed a pattern of domestic strength and international weakness [12][13]. 3.2 International Sugar Market Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Brazil - In the 25/26 sugar season, Brazil's sugar supply remains strong. As of the second half of October, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region has exceeded the same period last year. The sugar production and export volume in October were high, and the full - year sugar production is expected to reach a historical second - high level [16][17][25]. - In the medium - to - long term, the production prospects for the 26/27 sugar season are still optimistic. The weather has improved compared to last year, and the increase in corn ethanol production may lead to a decline in ethanol prices, which may keep the sugar - making ratio at a high level [23]. 3.2.2 India - The 25/26 sugar season in India is expected to see a significant rebound in sugar production, with a net sugar production increase of 18.6% year - on - year. As of November 15, the sugar production has increased compared to the same period last year [26][29]. - The Indian government has allowed 150 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 year. Currently, due to low international sugar prices, it is difficult for exports to increase significantly, but continuous attention should be paid to government policies and sugar mills' willingness to export [29]. 3.2.3 Thailand - In the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to continue to increase, with the market generally estimating the output at around 1.1 million tons, an increase of about 100,000 tons year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather and Chinese syrup control policies [35]. 3.2.4 Global - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a return to a surplus pattern in the global sugar market, with the ISO predicting a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons. However, there are still significant differences in the assessment of the surplus range, and continuous attention should be paid to the final output in the Northern Hemisphere [42]. 3.3 Domestic Sugar Market Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Production - Domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third consecutive year. The 2025/26 sugar production in Guangxi is estimated to increase by about 500,000 tons to 6.95 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the national sugar production in the 2025/26 year will be 11.7 million tons [47]. 3.3.2 Imports - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 480,000 tons. The import profit has reached a new high this year, and the supply pressure in the short term is relatively large [52]. 3.3.3 Substitutes - In 2025, the import control policy for syrups and premixes has become stricter. If the control is effective, the import volume of syrups is expected to further decrease, which will have a certain supporting effect on domestic sugar prices [55]. 3.4 2026 White Sugar Market Outlook - The situation is similar to the core views, with raw sugar facing long - term pressure from the surplus pattern, and domestic sugar prices following raw sugar with a medium - to - long - term downward pressure [64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with different institutions having varying forecasts for the surplus volume. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar has a short - term technical rebound trend, and considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [4][5][9] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a global sugar surplus of 163 tons in the 25/26 season, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast to 100 tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons. [4] - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5610, and the basis for the 05 contract is 285, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons. [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average. [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish. [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a global surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound, and increased import impact. [7] - **Expectation**: Foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has slightly rebounded. Considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, and there may be a short - term technical rebound trend, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [5][9] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **25/26 Season Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740 tons, and Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 tons. [4][9][34] - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November forecast), the sugar production is expected to increase from 9.96 million tons to 11.7 million tons, consumption will be around 15.7 - 15.9 million tons, and the balance will change from a deficit of 940,000 tons to a surplus of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton. [36] - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profits. [42] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year-on-year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the closing price on November 24, 2025, was 5615, with a decline of 60, a basis of 245 against SR01, and a decline of 77 in the basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the closing price was 5800, with no change, an ascension and discount of 100, a basis of 330 against SR01, and a decline of 17 in the basis [4] 3.2 Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The closing price of SR01 was 5370, with an increase of 17; the closing price of SR05 was 5319, with an increase of 17; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 51, with no change [4] 3.3 Exchange Rate and International Commodity Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1236, with a decline of 0.0081; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, with an increase of 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, with a decline of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.77, with no change; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, with an increase of 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 62.51, with no change [4] 3.4 Other Data - The domestic white sugar industrial inventory was 2000 (no unit specified) [4] - The profit of Brazilian sugar imported without tariff quota was shown in the range of - 2500 to 1500 (no unit specified) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar prices in China started a catch - up decline, with spot prices dropping significantly due to the impact of imported sugar. The full - tariff price of imported sugar is around 5100 - 5200, and there is still room for the futures price to fall. After a rapid decline, there may be a rebound. It's advisable to be cautiously bearish, avoid chasing short positions, and consider reducing profitable short positions taken earlier [5]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100,000 to 740,000 tons [5]. - The external sugar market is weak, and the profit margin for out - of - quota imported sugar is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 01 has recently caught up with the decline and reached a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, a technical rebound is possible, and short - term short positions can be partially reduced for profit [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production and the expected supply surplus in the new season, as well as the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of external sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Prompt - For SR2601, the price is 5353, the basis is 317, the import price difference is - 246, and the state reserve inventory is about 7 million tons. For SR2605, the price is 5302, with a change of - 60, the import price after processing of raw sugar (50% tariff) is 5107, the basis is 368, the import price difference is - 195, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons. For SR2609, the price in Liuzhou is 5321, the basis is 349, and the import price difference is - 214. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [8]. - Mid - term view: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, but the gap is decreasing in the medium - to - long - term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700. Since January 2025, the tariff on imported syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. The long - term view is bullish on sugar due to the approval of the cola formula change [8]. - Short - term view: Bullish on sugar. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Global sugar supply and demand forecasts for the 25/26 season from different institutions: ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 277,000 tons; Czarnikow has raised the surplus forecast to 740,000 tons; DATAGRO has revised the surplus forecast down from 280,000 to 100,000 tons [5][8]. - As of the end of August 2025, in the 24/25 season, the cumulative sugar production in China was 1.11621 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [5][8]. - China's sugar supply - demand balance sheet: In the 25/26 season (November forecast), the sugarcane planting area is 1.439 million hectares, the sugar production is 1.17 million tons, the import volume is 500,000 tons, the consumption is 1.57 million tons, and the export volume is 18,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.