1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the short - term, sell put options [3][4]. - The increase in sugar production in India and Thailand this season is likely to be less than the previous market expectations. The global sugar production forecast for the 2025/26 season has been lowered, and most global institutions are recently lowering the global sugar production forecast for the 2026/27 season, which supports international sugar prices. However, considering the start of the new Brazilian sugar - crushing season in April and May, there will be greater supply pressure in the market, so international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - In the domestic market, the domestic sugar is currently in the peak crushing period, and the domestic sugar production this season is likely to increase significantly, so there is some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the current low sugar prices and the possible further tightening of import - end policies in the future, the sugar price is expected to be intertwined with long and short factors, with a general trend of bottom - end oscillation. But considering the recent sharp increase in crude oil prices, the domestic sugar price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: International sugar prices are likely to oscillate within a range. Zhengzhou sugar's short - term trend may be slightly stronger with oscillations, and it is recommended to buy at low prices and sell at high prices [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4]. - **Options**: Sell put options in the short - term [4]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - Lowered Production Expectations** - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous forecast; the global sugar market surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast [8]. - Czarnikow predicts that the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season will be 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate; the global sugar production will be 184.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous estimate. The production in India is expected to decrease from 32.8 million tons to 30.2 million tons [8]. - Green Pool predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus for the second consecutive year in the 2026/27 season, and the surplus will drop to 156,000 tons, mainly due to the decline in sugar production [8]. - Datagro predicts that there will be a supply gap of 800,000 tons in the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season, and the supply gap will further widen to 2.68 million tons in the 2026/27 season [8]. - **Brazilian Sugar - Crushing Season** - **End of the Crushing Season**: In the second half of January, the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 609,000 tons, an increase of 370,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 154.39%. The sugar production was 5,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 36.31% [9]. - **Lower - than - Expected Increase in Production**: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 601.644 million tons, a decrease of 13.286 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.16%. The cumulative sugar production was 40.24 million tons, an increase of 341,000 tons compared to the same period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The increase in sugar production this season may only be 300,000 - 400,000 tons, less than the previously expected increase of 1 million tons [12]. - **Ethanol Production and Sales**: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the alcohol - to - gasoline price ratio in the São Paulo region is about 0.724. The ethanol - to - sugar price is significantly higher than the current spot raw - sugar price, so the sugar - making ratio in the new sugar - crushing season starting in April in Brazil is likely to be low. The sugar - making ratio this season is 50.6%. A one - point decrease in the sugar - making ratio will reduce sugar production by 900,000 tons [17]. - **Inventory and Exports**: Brazil exported 2.2297 million tons of sugar in February, a year - on - year increase of 22%. The average daily export volume was 123,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%. As of February in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar export was 32.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. As of the end of January, the inventory in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.7058 million tons, a decrease of 1.3149 million tons compared to the previous half - month report, and an increase of 462,000 tons compared to the same period last year, which is slightly lower than the same period in recent years [22]. - **Thailand's New Sugar - Crushing Season** - The 2025/26 sugar - crushing season's sugar production is expected to be 11 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons). As of December 2025, the cumulative sugar export was 5.5491 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The export volume has decreased significantly in recent months and has been at a low level compared to the same period in previous years since October. As of February 15, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 6.57%. The sugar production was 6.8356 million tons, a decrease of 346,700 tons compared to the same period last year, with a decrease of 4.83%. Green Pool predicts that Thailand's sugar production may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons in the 2026/27 season [25]. - **India's Sugar - Crushing Season** - The Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will be 32.4 million tons. After deducting 3.1 million tons for ethanol production, the net sugar production will be 29.3 million tons, an increase of about 12% compared to the previous season [27]. - As of February 28, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India reached 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.65 million tons compared to the same period last year, with an increase of 12.06%. The net export volume in December was 57,200 tons, which is at the lowest level compared to the same period in recent years. The Indian Food Ministry announced that the domestic sugar sales quota in March 2026 is 2.25 million tons, the same as in February and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to the same period last year [29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Domestic Sugar Production** - **Guangxi**: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Guangxi was 33.4306 million tons, a decrease of 3.0971 million tons compared to the same period last year; the production of mixed sugar was 4.029 million tons, a decrease of 788,000 tons compared to the same period last year; the mixed sugar - making rate was 12.05%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar production was 2.0871 million tons, an increase of 21,500 tons compared to the same period last year [35]. - **Yunnan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Yunnan was 8.1447 million tons (compared to 6.7824 million tons in the same period of the previous season), the sugar production was 984,100 tons (compared to 837,100 tons in the same period of the previous season), and the sugar - making rate was 12.08% (compared to 12.34% in the same period of the previous season). In January, the single - month sugar production was 591,800 tons (compared to 510,200 tons in the same period last year) [35]. - **Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory** - **Guangxi**: As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.5506 million tons, a decrease of 830,300 tons compared to the same period last year; the sales - to - production ratio was 38.49%, a decrease of 10.94 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In January, the single - month sugar sales were 665,800 tons, a decrease of 82,900 tons compared to the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 2.4784 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons compared to the same period last year [38]. - **Yunnan**: As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative sales of new sugar in Yunnan were 532,000 tons (compared to 452,200 tons in the same period last year), the sales - to - production ratio was 54.06% (compared to 54.03% in the same period last year). In January, the single - month sugar sales were 250,600 tons (compared to 185,100 tons in the same period last year), and the industrial inventory was 452,100 tons (compared to 384,800 tons in the same period last year) [38]. - **Sugar Imports** - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 188,500 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative sugar import was 4.9188 million tons, an increase of 562,200 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar import was 1.7635 million tons, an increase of 301,700 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - In December 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 69,700 tons, a decrease of 120,800 tons compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 1.1888 million tons, a decrease of 1.1879 million tons compared to the same period last year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 299,600 tons, a decrease of 339,500 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - **Import Profits** - The out - of - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 4,850 yuan, with a profit of 650 yuan; the out - of - quota cost of Thai sugar is 4,750 yuan, with a profit of over 750 yuan. However, due to the fact that the 2026 sugar import license has not been issued, the sugar import volume is low [46].

Core Viewpoint - The global sugar market is experiencing an oversupply, leading to downward pressure on sugar prices, particularly in the Zhengzhou market, which is expected to remain weak in the short term due to excess supply and low demand [1][7]. Global Sugar Supply - The global sugar production forecast for the 2025/2026 season is optimistic, with major sugar-producing countries expected to increase output, resulting in an oversupply situation [1]. - Brazil's sugar production remains high, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.86% to 40.22 million tons, despite a 2.28% decrease in total sugarcane crushed [1]. - India's sugar production has seen a strong start, reaching 15.885 million tons by mid-January 2026, a 21.6% increase year-on-year, with total production expected to reach 35 million tons [1]. - Thailand's sugar production is lagging behind the previous year, with a 16% decrease in both sugarcane crushed and sugar output due to delayed harvesting [2]. Sugar Import Dynamics - China's sugar import market in 2025 showed a significant increase in volume, reaching 4.92 million tons, a rise of 570,000 tons from the previous year, while the average import price fell to the lowest level since 2022 at 3,161 yuan/ton [3]. - The import pace accelerated in the second half of 2025, driven by strong import profits and favorable exchange rates, with December imports reaching 580,000 tons [3]. - The total sugar import quota for 2025 was set at 1.945 million tons, with potential adjustments expected in 2026 to maintain market balance [4]. Domestic Sugar Production and Sales - Domestic sugar production is characterized by a "northern end, southern peak" pattern, with total production expected to reach 11.7 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons from the previous season [5]. - Despite increased production, sales remain weak, with only 1.57 million tons sold from October to December 2025, resulting in a sales rate of 42.7% and rising industrial inventory [6]. - The current market shows a "production increase without sales increase" scenario, leading to price pressures as sugar prices in major production areas have fallen below production costs [6]. Price Trends - The global sugar oversupply is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on international sugar prices, which are projected to remain between 14 to 15 cents per pound [7]. - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to increased production and ongoing low international prices, with expectations of further increases in imports from Brazil [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season. DATAGRO reduces its surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 million tons, and StoneX estimates a 370 - million - ton surplus [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 883 thousand tons, cumulative sales are 91.6 thousand tons, and the sales rate is 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90 thousand tons, and the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 114.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108.2 thousand tons [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 89 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [4]. - As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 791.4 thousand tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]. - The sugar main contract 05 is expected to rebound in the short - term with oscillations, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 5300 [4]. - Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a new - season global supply surplus, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - Bullish: Possible decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish: Increase in global sugar production, new - season global supply surplus, opening of the import profit window due to falling foreign sugar prices, and increased import impact [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus, ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton surplus, and Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons [4]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China is 883 thousand tons, cumulative sales are 91.6 thousand tons, and the sales rate is 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar (down 90 thousand tons year - on - year), and the combined import of syrup and premixed powder was 114.4 thousand tons (down 108.2 thousand tons year - on - year) [4]. - The basis in Liuzhou is 89 (for the 05 contract), with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. As of the end of October, the industrial inventory in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season is 791.4 thousand tons [4]. - The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]. 3.5 Position Data - The main position shows a net short - increase, with a bearish trend [4]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the sugar industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The sugar market has a strong atmosphere, with the price of sugar showing certain changes and the supply - demand situation varying in different regions [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 15.17 cents per pound, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13 cents; the mainstream spot price is 5360 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan; the futures main contract price is 5285 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 16 yuan. The 15 - spread is 9 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 86 yuan; the 59 - spread is - 6 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2 yuan; the mainstream spot basis is 75 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - Precious metals and other commodities have risen significantly, creating a strong commodity atmosphere. As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons in November, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons. Attention should be paid to changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons), and a global sugar shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. As of December 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season decreased by 1.92 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 39.9 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons, and a cumulative MIX of 51.12%, a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points. As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons. As of December 22, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar season was 820,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral state [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment remains bearish, with an expectation of a global sugar market supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. The ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose 0.21 cents or 1.40%, settling at 15.20 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the number of sugar - cane crushing mills is increasing, and the industrial inventory of domestic sugar is in a seasonal growth trend. Although the sugar import volume in November decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the import progress slowed down significantly, the short - term sugar price mainly follows the upward trend of the external market price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 107 yuan; the main contract position was 466,130 lots, a decrease of 42,820 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 5038, an increase of 559; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 71,579 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar was 1102, a decrease of 79. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4103 yuan/ton, a rise of 36 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4151 yuan/ton, a rise of 36 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5240 yuan/ton, a rise of 50 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning, it was 5340 yuan/ton, a rise of 70 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou, it was 5400 yuan/ton, a rise of 40 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 47 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5262 yuan/ton, a rise of 47 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area was 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production in the country was 1116.21 million tons, an increase of 4.48 million tons; the cumulative sales volume of sugar in Guangxi was 237.4 million tons, a decrease of 90.3 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil were 330.2 million tons, a decrease of 593.35 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1124 yuan/ton, a rise of 25 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1076 yuan/ton, a rise of 25 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 28 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 14 yuan/ton, a rise of 14 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume was 44 million tons, a decrease of 31 million tons; the cumulative sugar import volume was 434 million tons, an increase of 44 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 130.3 million tons, an increase of 42 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1045.7 million tons, a decrease of 50.5 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 15.03%, a rise of 6.33%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 15.04%, a rise of 6.35%. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 8.07%, a rise of 0.39%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.08%, a rise of 0.12% [2]. Industry News - As of now, 71 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing in the 2025/26 season, 3 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of about 581,000 tons, 13,000 tons less than last year. The mainstream quotation range of Guangxi Sugar Group is 5250 - 5370 yuan/ton. It is expected that 73 sugar mills will start crushing in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season, 1 less than the previous season. The remaining 2 non - crushing mills will finish starting up on December 25th and December 26th [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Sugar prices continued to hit new lows this week, with the 05 main contract approaching the 5000 mark. The decline is nearing its end, and there is a short - term oversold rebound possibility. The risk of short - selling at the current position has increased [4][5][8]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the sugar market. Bullish factors include increased syrup tariffs and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices below 15 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Sugar prices continued to decline this week. The 05 main contract reached around the 5000 mark. Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus, with ISO predicting 163 million tons, DATAGRO reducing the forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow increasing it to 740 million tons, and StoneX predicting 370 million tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and in October, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The sugar main 05 contract is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current position has a high risk of short - selling. After continuous decline, there may be a short - term oversold rebound [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information is provided for this part. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Bullish factors: The domestic sugar supply - demand balance shows a gap, which is decreasing in the medium - long term. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700 yuan/ton. Since January 2025, the import tariff of syrup has increased, close to the out - of - quota import tariff of raw sugar. Trump approved the modification of the cola formula, which is long - term bullish for sugar [8]. - Bearish factors: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 25/26 global sugar market. Green Pool predicts that the global sugar production will increase by 5.3% in the 25/26 season, reaching 199.1 million tons. USDA predicts that the global sugar production will increase by 4.7% and consumption will increase by 1.4% in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons [8]. - Supply - demand data: The supply - demand situation of the 25/26 season is predicted by different institutions. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth. ISO predicts a surplus of 1.63 million tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%. Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [32]. - Production - related data: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sown and harvested areas of sugar crops, yields per hectare, and sugar production are presented. In 2025/26, the sown and harvested areas of sugar crops are 1.439 million hectares, the yield per hectare is 59.7 tons, and the sugar production is 11.7 million tons. The import volume is predicted to be 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [34]. 3.5 Position Data No information is provided for this part.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of new domestic sugar crops has increased year - on - year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face pressure on the upside and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Sugar Market Data - On December 2, 2025, the price in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5565, down 20; the price in Rizhao, Shandong was 5750, unchanged. The SR01 price was 5382, down 23; the SRO5 price was 5316, down 17. The SR01 - 05 spread was down 6. The basis of Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi to SR01 was 183, up 3; the basis of Rizhao, Shandong to SR01 was 268, up 23 [4]. International Market Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.0953, up 0.0043; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.74, unchanged; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 63.33, unchanged [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a return to a surplus pattern in the global sugar market, and raw sugar will remain under pressure in the medium to long term. In the short term, the further decline space of raw sugar may be limited, but the surplus pattern restricts its rebound momentum, making it difficult to break out of the low - range oscillation range. The production prospects of Brazil in the 26/27 sugar season are still optimistic [4][5][64]. - Domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third consecutive year. In the short term, there is support, but as new sugar is listed in large quantities, the spot pressure will gradually increase. The medium - to - long - term trend may still be unoptimistic, and there is a possibility of a new low. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [4][6][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 White Sugar Market Review - The overall market traded around the expectation of increased global sugar supply in the 25/26 sugar season, showing an oscillatory downward trend throughout the year. The domestic market generally followed the international market, and the price strength was mainly affected by domestic production and sales progress and policies [12]. - The market can be divided into five stages: the first stage (January) was a bottom - finding and rebound; the second stage (February - March) was a multi - empty game; the third stage (April - June) was a weak decline; the fourth stage (July - September) was a low - level oscillation; the fifth stage (October to present) showed a pattern of domestic strength and international weakness [12][13]. 3.2 International Sugar Market Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Brazil - In the 25/26 sugar season, Brazil's sugar supply remains strong. As of the second half of October, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region has exceeded the same period last year. The sugar production and export volume in October were high, and the full - year sugar production is expected to reach a historical second - high level [16][17][25]. - In the medium - to - long term, the production prospects for the 26/27 sugar season are still optimistic. The weather has improved compared to last year, and the increase in corn ethanol production may lead to a decline in ethanol prices, which may keep the sugar - making ratio at a high level [23]. 3.2.2 India - The 25/26 sugar season in India is expected to see a significant rebound in sugar production, with a net sugar production increase of 18.6% year - on - year. As of November 15, the sugar production has increased compared to the same period last year [26][29]. - The Indian government has allowed 150 tons of sugar exports in the 25/26 year. Currently, due to low international sugar prices, it is difficult for exports to increase significantly, but continuous attention should be paid to government policies and sugar mills' willingness to export [29]. 3.2.3 Thailand - In the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to continue to increase, with the market generally estimating the output at around 1.1 million tons, an increase of about 100,000 tons year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather and Chinese syrup control policies [35]. 3.2.4 Global - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a return to a surplus pattern in the global sugar market, with the ISO predicting a supply surplus of 1.63 million tons. However, there are still significant differences in the assessment of the surplus range, and continuous attention should be paid to the final output in the Northern Hemisphere [42]. 3.3 Domestic Sugar Market Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Production - Domestic sugar is expected to increase for the third consecutive year. The 2025/26 sugar production in Guangxi is estimated to increase by about 500,000 tons to 6.95 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that the national sugar production in the 2025/26 year will be 11.7 million tons [47]. 3.3.2 Imports - In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 3.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 480,000 tons. The import profit has reached a new high this year, and the supply pressure in the short term is relatively large [52]. 3.3.3 Substitutes - In 2025, the import control policy for syrups and premixes has become stricter. If the control is effective, the import volume of syrups is expected to further decrease, which will have a certain supporting effect on domestic sugar prices [55]. 3.4 2026 White Sugar Market Outlook - The situation is similar to the core views, with raw sugar facing long - term pressure from the surplus pattern, and domestic sugar prices following raw sugar with a medium - to - long - term downward pressure [64][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with different institutions having varying forecasts for the surplus volume. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar has a short - term technical rebound trend, and considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [4][5][9] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a global sugar surplus of 163 tons in the 25/26 season, DATAGRO reduces the surplus forecast to 100 tons, Czarnikow raises it to 740 tons, and StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons. [4] - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5610, and the basis for the 05 contract is 285, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons. [6] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average. [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main trend is bearish. [6] - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change of the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include increased global sugar production, a global surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14 cents per pound, and increased import impact. [7] - **Expectation**: Foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, and domestic Zhengzhou sugar has slightly rebounded. Considering the approaching delivery of the 01 contract, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, and there may be a short - term technical rebound trend, with an intraday trading idea of slightly bullish and oscillating. [5][9] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **25/26 Season Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand balance in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740 tons, and Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 tons. [4][9][34] - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November forecast), the sugar production is expected to increase from 9.96 million tons to 11.7 million tons, consumption will be around 15.7 - 15.9 million tons, and the balance will change from a deficit of 940,000 tons to a surplus of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is predicted to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton. [36] - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profits. [42] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of domestic new crops has increased year-on-year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the closing price on November 24, 2025, was 5615, with a decline of 60, a basis of 245 against SR01, and a decline of 77 in the basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the closing price was 5800, with no change, an ascension and discount of 100, a basis of 330 against SR01, and a decline of 17 in the basis [4] 3.2 Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The closing price of SR01 was 5370, with an increase of 17; the closing price of SR05 was 5319, with an increase of 17; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 51, with no change [4] 3.3 Exchange Rate and International Commodity Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1236, with a decline of 0.0081; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, with an increase of 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, with a decline of 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.77, with no change; the price of London white sugar main contract was 573, with an increase of 3; the price of Brent crude oil main contract was 62.51, with no change [4] 3.4 Other Data - The domestic white sugar industrial inventory was 2000 (no unit specified) [4] - The profit of Brazilian sugar imported without tariff quota was shown in the range of - 2500 to 1500 (no unit specified) [4]