Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The connection between domestic and international sugar markets is strengthening. Factors such as low inventories in Brazil, lower - than - expected production in India, and low precipitation in the Brazilian production area in Q1 are influencing the sugar market. The global sugar supply is expected to face a larger shortage in the 24/25 season, and the domestic sugar market is closely following the international market [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Spread Data**: The current price of raw sugar is 19.59 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.24. The mainstream spot price is 6240 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan year - on - year, and the futures main contract price is 6161 yuan per ton, up 32 yuan year - on - year. The 59 spread is 105 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan year - on - year, the 15 spread is 104 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan year - on - year, and the mainstream spot basis is 79 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: In the context of low inventories in Brazil, lower - than - expected production in India, and low precipitation in the Brazilian production area in Q1, attention should be paid to the structural market of the raw sugar May contract. The NFCSF has lowered India's sugar production forecast for the 24/25 season from 2650 million tons to 2590 million tons. Brazil exported 183 million tons in February, a year - on - year decrease of 39.4%. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to February have decreased significantly, and the domestic market is more closely following the international raw sugar market [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 1100 million tons, consumption will be 1580 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. As of the end of February, the national sugar production in the 24/25 season was 972 million tons (+177 million tons), the cumulative sugar sales were 475 million tons (+97 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 48.9%. China imported 8 million tons of sugar from January to February (-111 million tons) [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Global Supply Shortage**: ISO predicts that the global sugar supply will be in a shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously a shortage of 251 million tons). As of March 16, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 24/25 season decreased by 4.94 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 3998 million tons (-226 million tons), and the cumulative MIX decreased by 0.87 percentage points year - on - year. As of March 31, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 2485 million tons (-540 million tons). As of March 23, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 998 million tons (+127 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 1, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3].