Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of the commodity market amidst ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly focusing on oil and its derivatives, while highlighting the potential investment opportunities and risks associated with these changes [3][4][10]. Group 1: Oil Market Strategy - The primary strategy suggested is to "go long on oil (and energy) while shorting base metals," based on the differentiated pricing of the same shock in the market [4]. - The current geopolitical tensions have led to a significant drop in risk appetite, which is impacting previously inflated growth narratives supported by factors like AI capital expenditure [4]. - High oil prices are expected to elevate global inflation and interest rate expectations, suppressing overall demand and manufacturing activity [4]. - The sustainability of this trading position is highly dependent on the evolution of the conflict, with market expectations potentially underestimating the duration of the conflict [4]. Group 2: Broader Commodity Market Implications - The article raises the question of whether commodities are pricing in risk appetite or balance sheet concerns, which could lead to a rapid shift in market sentiment towards fears of a global recession [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflict is creating independent trend opportunities in agricultural sectors, particularly driven by U.S. biodiesel policies that are expected to increase domestic soybean oil consumption by over 30% by 2026 [6][7]. - The disruption in the international fertilizer supply chain, especially nitrogen fertilizers, is contributing to rising food prices, providing inflationary support for global grain prices [7]. Group 3: Japan's Economic Vulnerability - Japan's low energy self-sufficiency and high dependence on Middle Eastern oil make it particularly vulnerable to geopolitical events that could structurally raise oil prices [8][9]. - The conflict places Japan in a challenging "policy trilemma," where it must balance combating inflation, maintaining government bond market stability, and preventing a collapse of the yen [9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The focus in the oil market has shifted from initial emotional shocks to precise calculations regarding the duration of the conflict and real supply shortages [10]. - The article outlines two extreme scenarios: a prolonged conflict leading to a significant supply gap, or a sudden de-escalation that would not synchronize with the recovery of oil logistics and production [11]. - Recent structural changes in the market, such as the expansion of domestic crude oil futures delivery, aim to mitigate risks associated with contract delivery and potential defaults [12]. - The current commodity market presents clear trading signals, with a recommendation to hedge tail risks through out-of-the-money call options on oil, while also considering long positions in the oil and chemical processing sectors once geopolitical tensions ease [12].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US intends to cease fire for a month and propose a "15 - item condition" peace - negotiation plan to Iran, which leads to a significant drop in international oil prices. This situation is bearish for the prices of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar, grains, and oils. The strategies for these commodities are to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3][10][13]. - The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [6][7]. - For eggs, although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. - For pigs, the supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons compared with the same period last year, with a total increase of 440,000 tons. In February, the cumulative sugar production in the country was 9.26 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 455,000 tons; the monthly sugar sales were 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 266,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 840,000 tons. As of March 15, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, India's cumulative sugar production was 26.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.49 million tons; Thailand's sugar production reached 10.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 545,000 tons. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted at the end of February that due to lower - than - expected sugar production in India and Thailand, the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season is expected to be 181.29 million tons [2]. - **Strategy**: The US's cease - fire intention and the decline in international oil prices are bearish for raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar prices. The strategy is to turn to a wait - and - see approach [3]. Cotton - **Market Information**: From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 300,000 - ton processing trade import quota with preferential tariff rates outside the tariff quota. From March 5th to 12th, the US's current - year cotton export sales were 46,400 tons, with cumulative export sales of 2.1919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 178,400 tons; among them, the export to China was 2,400 tons that week, with cumulative exports to China of 106,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,800 tons. As of the week of March 20th, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.6%, a 2.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 390,000 tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February forecast and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February forecast and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The US production forecast in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February forecast, with the export forecast remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as before. Brazil's production forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's production forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's production forecast increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [5]. - **Strategy**: The newly issued 300,000 - ton import quota in China is short - term bearish for Zhengzhou cotton prices but bullish for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the continuous increase in downstream operating rates, Zhengzhou cotton prices have temporarily found support at the bottom and rebounded. It is recommended to try to go long on dips. The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bullish for cotton prices [6][7]. Protein Meal - **Market Information**: S&P Global predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would reach 95.2 million acres, higher than the 95 million acres predicted in January. The US soybean planting area forecast was raised to 85 million acres, higher than the 84.5 million acres predicted in January. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with the current - year cumulative soybean exports of 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; among them, the export to China was 80,000 tons that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons; the soybean crushing plant operating rate was 54.22%, a 14.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production was 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The US soybean production forecast was 115.99 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Brazil's production forecast was 180 million tons, the same as the February forecast; Argentina's production forecast was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February forecast. In the March forecast, the US export volume forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [9]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation is bearish for grain prices. The customs' relaxation of the inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is also bearish for meal prices. The subsequent price trend depends on the soybean import arrival rhythm and the progress of the US - Iran event. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [10]. Oils - **Market Information**: The President of Indonesia stated that Indonesian coal, crude palm oil, and their derivative production enterprises are not allowed to export relevant products before meeting domestic demand to ensure national energy and important commodity supply security. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA) data showed that from March 1st to 15th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month. The Deputy Minister of Energy of Indonesia said that the government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. The Indonesian Bureau of Statistics data showed that in January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.3 million tons, a 490,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and an 860,000 - ton increase year - on - year. According to the MPOB data, in February, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a 300,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 90,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a 330,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 130,000 - ton increase year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a 120,000 - ton decrease from the previous month and a 1.19 million - ton increase year - on - year. AmSpec data showed that from March 1st to 20th, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.166 million tons, a 49.6% increase from the same period of the previous month. ITS data showed that from March 1st to 20th, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume was 1.191 million tons, a 38.1% increase from the same period of the previous month. According to the Indian Refiners Association (SEA) data, as of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, a 120,000 - ton increase from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. As of the week of March 20th, the domestic sample data of the three major oil inventories was 1.95 million tons, a 95,000 - ton decrease year - on - year [12]. - **Strategy**: The cooling of the US - Iran situation leads to a significant drop in international oil prices, which is bearish for oil prices. It is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term [13]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in the country were stable. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.01 yuan to 3.29 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan remained at 3.1 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.18 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was average, and the participation sentiment in some areas improved. It is expected that the short - term national egg prices may be stable or increase [15]. - **Strategy**: Although the production capacity is on a downward trend, the absolute supply level remains high, and the pace of capacity reduction slows down due to expectations. The spot price is affected by pulsed demand, showing a relatively strong overall trend, but the future price increase space and sustainability are questionable. The idea is to short on rallies for the near - term contracts and pay attention to the support brought by cost increases for the far - term contracts [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally continued to decline, with small increases in some low - price areas. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.13 yuan to 9.58 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.07 yuan to 9.44 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou increased by 0.04 yuan to 8.91 yuan per kilogram. The market transaction enthusiasm was average, and it was difficult for farmers to sell pigs. It is expected that some regions may still have the intention to reduce prices today, and some low - price areas in the south may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply is in a concentrated realization period while the demand is limited. The spot price is weak, and the basis for price increase in the medium term is still poor. With more regions having prices below 10 yuan and piglets' prices falling in the peak season, panic spreads, driving the futures price to decline rapidly. The short - term spot market still lacks factors to break the negative cycle, and the near - term contracts may remain weak. Although there are more differences in the far - term contracts after the valuation has moved down, the production capacity has not been significantly reduced, and the basis for price increase under the premium situation is still insufficient. It is advisable to wait and see for now [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend in the short - term, with a recommendation to go long at low levels. The sugar market is likely to continue its oscillating upward trend, and its downside space is gradually narrowing [1][3] Summary by Related Content Cotton - Downstream demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" season is fair, with an increase in order volume, stable spinning mill operating rates, and cotton raw material restocking at low prices. The cotton supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the reduction of the new - season cotton planting area [1] - The confirmed schedule of Trump's visit to China in May 2026 is expected to stabilize Sino - US trade, with potential for tariff cuts and US cotton purchases [1] Sugar - Due to the ongoing Middle - East conflict, the ICE raw sugar futures price rebounded and reached a new high in nearly 5 months, closing at 15.9 cents per pound, up 0.38 cents per pound. The impact of geopolitical situation changes on sugar prices needs to be closely monitored [2] - India's food department announced that the domestic sugar sales quota for April 2026 is 230 tons, 5 tons less than the same period last year. After the quota announcement, the local sugar price is expected to maintain a range - bound trend [2] - The estimated cost of Brazilian sugar after processing and tax payment within the quota is 4378 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 5573 yuan per ton. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 1272 yuan per ton, and outside the quota is 77 yuan per ton [2] - The increase in the outer - market raw sugar price narrows the price difference between domestic and foreign sugar. Although the global sugar market is still loose, raw sugar is gradually emerging from the bottom. The downside space of sugar is expected to shrink, and the bottom - building market is becoming clear [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The price of raw sugar has increased, and Zhengzhou sugar has followed suit [1] - The sugar industry chain has attracted continuous attention from funds through the link between ethanol and crude oil [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 15.9 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.38; the mainstream spot price is 5,450 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 20; the futures main contract price is 5,429 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 24 [1] - The 59 spread is - 31 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 2; the 91 spread is - 129 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 9; the mainstream spot basis is 21 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 4 [1] Macro and Industry News - As of March 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 crushing season increased by 10% year - on - year [1] - China imported a cumulative 520,000 tons of sugar from January to February, an increase of 440,000 tons [1] - As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 crushing season was 5.65 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons, and the sugar production rate was 12.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.01 percentage points [1] - Attention should be paid to the changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder and the sales progress in the producing areas [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of February, China had imported a cumulative 2.28 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 crushing season, an increase of 740,000 tons [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 crushing season (previously a surplus of 163,000 tons), and a global sugar shortage of 3.46 million tons in the 24/25 crushing season [2] - As of February 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 crushing season decreased by 2.16 percentage points year - on - year, with a cumulative sugar production of 40.24 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons, and the cumulative MIX was 50.74%, a year - on - year increase of 2.60 percentage points [2] - As of March 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 crushing season was 26.18 million tons, an increase of 2.46 million tons [2] - As of March 11, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 crushing season was 9.79 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 1, indicating a relatively neutral view [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw sugar price is accelerating upward due to the upward - trending crude oil and the link between sugar and ethanol, attracting continuous attention from funds [1]. - The 25/26 sugar - making season shows different production and consumption situations in the domestic and international markets. There are changes in production, consumption, and import volumes in China, and the global sugar supply situation has changed from a shortage in the 24/25 season to a surplus in the 25/26 season, but the surplus has decreased compared to the previous forecast [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 15.52 cents per pound with a year - on - year increase of 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 5430 yuan per ton with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5439 yuan per ton with a year - on - year increase of 22 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 59 spread is - 30 yuan per ton with a year - on - year decrease of 7; the 91 spread is - 127 yuan per ton with a year - on - year increase of 3; the mainstream spot basis is - 9 yuan per ton with a year - on - year decrease of 22 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: Crude oil is oscillating upward, causing chemical and agricultural products to follow the upward trend. Sugar, linked to crude oil through ethanol, is attracting continuous attention from funds, leading to an accelerated increase in raw sugar prices [1]. - **Production and Import Data**: As of March 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported a cumulative 520,000 tons of sugar from January to February (+440,000 tons). As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season was 5.65 million tons (-520,000 tons), and the sugar - making rate was 12.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.01 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Domestic and International Market Situation - **Domestic Market**: CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption will be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports will be 5 million tons. As of the end of February, China had imported a cumulative 2.28 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 season (+740,000 tons) [2]. - **International Market**: ISO predicts a global sugar surplus of 122,000 tons in the 25/26 season (previously a surplus of 163,000 tons), and a global sugar shortage of 346,000 tons in the 24/25 season. As of February 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season decreased by 2.16 percentage points year - on - year, with a cumulative sugar production of 40.24 million tons (+340,000 tons), and the cumulative MIX was 50.74%, a year - on - year increase of 2.60 percentage points. As of March 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 season was 26.18 million tons (+2.46 million tons). As of March 11, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 season was 9.79 million tons (+280,000 tons) [2]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices are expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend due to high international oil prices and the downward revision of sugar production forecasts by major sugar - producing countries [9] - In the domestic market, although there is pressure on the supply side as domestic sugar production is likely to increase significantly during the peak crushing season, and large sugar imports from January to February have a negative impact on the market, considering the low sugar prices, possible tightening of import policies, and high oil prices, the downward space for sugar prices is relatively limited [9] - For trading strategies, in the short - term, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly bullish and volatile. Zhengzhou sugar prices have dropped sharply but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize, then buy low and sell high through rolling operations. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell put options [10][11][12] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,440 with a rise of 70 (1.30%), trading volume of 117,032 (a decrease of 11,627), and an open interest of 221,864 (an increase of 5,080); SR01 closed at 5,570 with a rise of 61 (1.11%), trading volume of 3,327 (a decrease of 825), and an open interest of 19,402 (a decrease of 597); SR05 closed at 5,417 with a rise of 74 (1.38%), trading volume of 337,734 (a decrease of 31,600), and an open interest of 372,106 (a decrease of 15,641) [3] - **Spot Market**: In the spot market, the prices in different regions showed different changes. For example, the price in Liuzhou was 5470 with no change, while the price in Kunming was 5315 with an increase of 5 [3] - **Basis**: The basis in different regions also varied. For example, the basis in Liuzhou was 53, while in Kunming it was - 102 [3] - **Inter - month Spread**: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 153 with a rise of 13; the SR09 - SR05 spread was 23 with a decrease of 4; the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 130 with a rise of 9 [3] - **Import Profit**: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.30, and a freight of 47.00, the in - quota price was 4133, the out - of - quota price was 5253, the spread with Liuzhou was 217, the spread with Rizhao was 387, and the spread with the futures price was 164. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 1.22, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4060, the out - of - quota price was 5159, the spread with Liuzhou was 311, the spread with Rizhao was 481, and the spread with the futures price was 258 [3] Part 2: Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In February, the actual arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar was 0 tons, and the forecasted arrival in March was also 0 tons. As of the week of March 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased from 47 to 40, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased from 1.5619 million tons to 1.2827 million tons. From March 18 - 19, 5 large - scale sugar mills in Guangxi completed the sugar - pressing process. As of now, 19 sugar mills in the 2025/2026 sugar - pressing season in Guangxi have completed the process, 49 less than the same period last year, and the sugar - pressing capacity has decreased by 363,000 tons per day compared to the same period last year [5] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand this season is likely to be lower than market expectations, and many global institutions are lowering their sugar production forecasts for the 2026/2027 season, which supports international sugar prices. Domestically, although there is supply - side pressure due to the peak crushing season and expected significant increase in sugar production, considering factors such as low sugar prices, possible tightening of import policies, and high oil prices, the downward space for sugar prices is limited [9] - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, wait for the price to stabilize and then buy low and sell high through rolling operations. For arbitrage, wait and see. For options, sell put options [10][11][12] Part 3: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot price spread, white sugar basis for different months, and spreads between different futures contracts [16][19][23][26][29][31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of sugar is 1, indicating a "slightly bullish" view. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]. 2. Core View - The sugar market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, with raw sugar prices showing an upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 14.45 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.26. The mainstream spot price is 5440 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5406 yuan per ton, down 66 yuan year - on - year [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 59 spread is -30 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan year - on - year. The 91 spread is -133 yuan per ton, down 8 yuan year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 34 yuan per ton, up 56 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: Sugar is linked to crude oil through ethanol and has attracted continuous attention from funds. As of March 15, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season in India increased by 10% year - on - year. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons). As of the end of February, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar season was 5.65 million tons (-520,000 tons), and the sugar production rate was 12.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.01 percentage points. Attention should be paid to changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder and the sales progress in the production areas [1]. - **Domestic Market**: CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of December, China had cumulatively imported 1.77 million tons of sugar in the 25/26 sugar season (+310,000 tons) [2]. - **International Market**: ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons), and a global sugar shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. As of February 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season decreased by 2.16 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 40.24 million tons (+340,000 tons), and the cumulative MIX was 50.74%, a year - on - year increase of 2.60 percentage points. As of March 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season was 26.18 million tons (+2.46 million tons). As of March 11, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar season was 9.79 million tons (+280,000 tons) [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for Haida Group, "Buy-B" for Shennong Development and Wens Foodstuffs, and "Hold-A" for Guai Bao Pet and Zhongchong Shares [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the return of capacity reduction logic in the breeding sector, suggesting that the pig farming industry may face pressure in the first half of the year, but this period could also serve as a favorable window for capacity reduction [2][4]. - The report indicates that the overall pig price has decreased, leading to an expansion of losses in pig farming profits. As of March 13, the average price of external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan was 10.25, 10.96, and 10.13 yuan/kg, respectively, with an average pork price of 16.17 yuan/kg, down 4.99% from the previous week [3][24]. - The feed industry is experiencing a shift from product competition to value chain competition, with market share concentrating among leading companies with advantages in research and development, scale, and service [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - During the week of March 9 to March 15, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.19%, while the agriculture sector increased by 1.01%, ranking sixth among sectors. The top-performing sub-industries included grain and oil processing, food and feed additives, and pig farming [2][15]. 2. Pig Farming - The report notes a significant decline in pig farming profits, with self-breeding losses reaching -283.15 yuan per head, a decrease of approximately 45.17 yuan from the previous week. The profit from purchasing piglets was -118.18 yuan per head, down about 59.29 yuan [3][24]. 3. Poultry Farming - The price of white feather chickens has slightly rebounded, with a weekly price of 7.21 yuan/kg, while the profit from raising meat chickens has decreased to 0.11 yuan per chicken, down 38.89% from the previous week [44]. 4. Feed Processing - The average price of feed for fattening pigs has increased to 3.38 yuan/kg, while the average price for chicken feed is 3.55 yuan/kg, both showing a week-on-week increase [49]. 5. Aquaculture - The report states that the price of sea cucumbers remains stable at 110 yuan/kg, while the price of shrimp is 280 yuan/kg. Freshwater fish prices, such as grass carp and crucian carp, have seen slight declines [56]. 6. Planting and Grain Processing - The report indicates a notable increase in grain prices, with corn at 2446.86 yuan/ton (+1.20%), soybeans at 4277.37 yuan/ton (+5.04%), and wheat at 2577.61 yuan/ton (+1.40%) [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market has a clear pattern of structural surplus. India has significant production increase, Brazil maintains high - level production, and the slight reduction in Thailand's production has limited impact. With the expectation of the new sugar - making season in Brazil, the global sugar supply pressure continues to increase [4]. - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the domestic sugar supply is in a relaxed pattern. The cane sugar has entered the peak of concentrated pressing, domestic sugar production has increased year - on - year, imported sugar arrivals are stable, and industrial inventory is high. The domestic market has shifted from a tight balance to a slight surplus [4]. - Overall, it is expected that Zhengzhou sugar futures will have a ceiling and a floor, with little significant fluctuation, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak international sugar markets will continue [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Spot Price - In various domestic regions on March 13, 2026, sugar spot prices and related data are as follows: In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price is 5500 yuan, up 20 yuan, with a basis of 53 yuan against 2601 and a change of - 11 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong, the price is 5635 yuan, unchanged, with a premium of 100 yuan, a basis of 88 yuan against 2601 and a change of - 31 yuan; in Langfang, Hebei, the price is 5665 yuan, down 55 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan, a basis of 118 yuan against 2601 and a change of - 86 yuan; in Fuzhou, Fujian, the price is 5700 yuan, unchanged, with a premium of 240 yuan, a basis of 13 yuan against 2601 and a change of - 31 yuan; in Beijing, the price is 5675 yuan, unchanged, with a premium of 80 yuan, a basis of 148 yuan against 2601 and a change of - 31 yuan; in Zhongliang Liaoning, Liaoning, the price is 5675 yuan, unchanged, with a premium of 50 yuan, a basis of 178 yuan against 2601 and a change of - 31 yuan; in Shanghai, the price is 5860 yuan, up 20 yuan, with a premium of 140 yuan, a basis of 273 yuan against 2601 and a change of - 11 yuan; in Wuhan, Hubei, the price is 5810 yuan, unchanged, with a premium of 100 yuan, a basis of 263 yuan against 2601 and a change of - 31 yuan [3]. Futures Price - On March 13, 2026, SR05 futures price is 5447 yuan, up 31 yuan; SR09 futures price is 5483 yuan, up 36 yuan; the spread between SR05 and SR09 is - 36 yuan, down 5 yuan [3]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Price - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 6.8986, up 0.0050; the price of ICE raw sugar futures is 14.41, down 0.02; the price of London white sugar futures is 573; the exchange rate of Brazilian real against RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of Indian rupee against RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004; the price of Brent crude oil futures is 103.89, up 2.14 [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that inflation expectations serve as a "macro engine" for commodity markets, with recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East significantly influencing commodity trends, particularly leading to a surge in oil prices and a renewed focus on inflation trades, which may also heighten the risk of stagflation [2]. Group 1: Commodity Trends - Since January, commodities have shown overall strength with a structural market characterized by significant increases in energy prices, high levels in precious metals, a rebound in agricultural products, and weaker performance in the black commodities sector, reflecting rising supply chain risks and intensified policy negotiations [2]. - The recent geopolitical conflicts have notably increased market attention on agricultural products, leading to heightened speculative activity and a significant rise in implied volatility, with agricultural prices increasingly following oil price movements, indicating that macro-level influences outweigh basic supply-demand fundamentals [2]. Group 2: Correlation Between Oil and Agricultural Products - Historical data shows varying correlations between oil and agricultural products, with imported agricultural products being most affected. From 2016 to present, the correlation between Brent crude oil and agricultural prices, such as U.S. soybean oil, cotton, and corn, has been notably strong, often exceeding 0.67 [3]. Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - In early March, the oil market experienced a rapid upward pulse due to U.S.-Iran tensions, although prices have since retreated, establishing a higher price baseline. The oilseed market has strengthened due to both commodity market sentiment and the supportive fundamentals of biodiesel, making oilseeds a preferred choice among agricultural products [6]. - The current oil market dynamics differ from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the oil market is now influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, with no clear signals for a ceasefire, leading to a gradual increase in oil price baselines [9]. Group 4: Agricultural Costs and Production - The conflict has raised fertilizer and chemical costs significantly, with the USDA estimating a 92% increase in fertilizer costs and a 54% increase in chemical costs for soybean planting in 2022. This cost increase is expected to persist into 2025 and 2026, leading to an overall rise in planting costs by approximately 9% [11]. - The soybean market is currently under pressure due to several years of high production, resulting in relatively low prices. However, the market sentiment is shifting, with the potential for upward price movement due to geopolitical events and changes in trade policies [12]. Group 5: Cotton Market Outlook - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to impact the cotton industry through increased costs across the supply chain, including planting, processing, and transportation. The ICAC predicts a 4% decline in global cotton production, which, combined with geopolitical uncertainties, may lead to increased price volatility [19]. - Short-term cotton prices are expected to remain strong, with potential for further increases if the conflict continues, as rising energy costs and declining production expectations converge [20]. Group 6: Sugar Market Dynamics - The global sugar market is currently in a production increase cycle, but prices are under pressure due to high industrial inventories. However, the market is showing signs of cost support, and geopolitical tensions may indirectly influence sugar prices through the ethanol market [27]. - The conflict has created disruptions in sugar supply chains, particularly affecting refined sugar exports, which may lead to tighter supply and upward price pressure in the sugar market [27]. Group 7: Corn Market Insights - The geopolitical tensions have led to significant uncertainty in logistics and production in the Middle East, driving up oil prices and subsequently impacting grain markets. Despite a generally loose supply-demand balance for corn and wheat, macroeconomic factors are currently dominating market dynamics [34]. - Domestic corn prices have strengthened due to market speculation and concerns over supply gaps, with expectations of continued price increases in the short term [34]. Group 8: Egg and Pork Markets - The fluctuations in oil prices are impacting the egg market primarily through cost channels, as rising feed prices due to increased demand for biofuels are expected to elevate production costs for eggs [42]. - The pork market is experiencing indirect effects from rising feed costs, which could lead to increased production costs and potential supply pressures in the near term [49].