主要食品企业已出现实质性业绩冲击。CJ第一制糖大量从美国、澳大利亚等国采购小麦、大豆等 原料，仅第三季度白糖与食用油原料采购费用就分别达5918亿和5872亿韩元。CJ第一制糖表示汇率每 上升10%，税后利润将减少13.0818亿韩元，其第三季度营业利润同比下降25.6%。乐天Wellfood也披露 汇率每上涨10%将使利润减少35.3亿韩元。 业内担忧，若高汇率持续，年底至明年初可能出现食品价格集中上调。一名行业人士称，大部分原料以 美元结算，企业将不可避免地把成本压力转嫁至终端售价，这将进一步加重消费者负担，并对整体物价 形成传导效应。 （原标题：韩元急贬推高食品企业成本） 韩国《东亚日报》11月18日报道，韩元贬值使高度依赖进口原材料的韩国食品企业成本压力显著加 大。17日首尔外汇市场美元兑韩元收盘价达1458.0韩元，较去年同期上涨超4%。由于国内食品制造业 原料国产化率仅为31.8%，棕榈油、小麦、大豆、原糖等关键原料近70%依赖进口，汇率变动对企业成 本影响尤其敏感。 ...

白糖期货周报 震荡走弱 作者：刘珂 投资咨询资格证：Z0016336 联系方式：020-88818026 qhliuke@gf.com.cn 广发期货APP 微信公众号 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025/11/22 品种观点 | 品种 | 主要观点 | 本周策略 | 上周策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白糖 | 国际方面：NFCSF预估显示，无论新榨季是否推迟开始，印度新糖总 | | 附近压力情况 | | | 产量将为3500万吨，预计将有350万吨糖用于乙醇生产，巴西进入收 | | | | | 榨尾声，供应宽松格局成定局，整体来看，近期基本面相对平静，前期 | | | | | 利空交易相对比较充分，预计原糖价格在14美分/磅附近将震荡整理一 | 震荡偏弱，偏空交易 | 底部震荡，关注5500-5550 | | | 段时间。 | | | | | 国内方面：广西新糖上市， 市场主流价格基本以之前糖厂预售的基差 | | | | | 糖源， 价格大幅贴水陈糖， 引导期货价格走弱， 期货价格维持弱势， | | | | | 基差糖源价格下跌， ...

国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 2000 ------ 19/20 ------- 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------ 22/23 ------ 22/23 ------- 23/24 - - 24/25 800 C 1500 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 =2017 == 2018 == 2020 2016 · 0 2021 · =2022 == 2023 = =2024 == 2025 10月 11月 12月 1月 2月 4月 5月 6月 7月 9月 3月 8月 柳州-01基差 郑糖1-5月差 500 1000 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 -200 -400 -100 -200 6月21日 7月21日 8月21日 9月21日 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 5月21日 =SR1801-SR1805 =SR1901-SR1905 =SR2001-SR2005 SR1701-SR1705 = SR2101-SR2105 -- SR2201-SR2205 -- ...

2025 年 11 月 24 日 白糖：进口总量和结构是关键 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 14.78 | 0.1 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 51 | 5 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5650 | 0 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -19 | -2 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5353 | -13 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 297 | 13 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：关注中国糖浆和预拌粉进口政策变化。25/26 榨季印度食糖出口配额为 150 万吨。巴西 10 月 上半月食糖产量同比增加 1%。巴西 10 月出口 420 万吨，同比增加 13%。中国 10 月进口食糖 75 万吨（+21 万吨），进口糖浆和预拌粉 12 万吨（-11 万吨）。 国内市场：CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1170 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The supply pressure of new domestic crops has increased year - on - year. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Data Domestic Data - In Guangxi Nanning warehouse, the price is 0, with no change, and the basis with SR01 is - 5366, up 15; in Shandong Rizhao, the price is 5820, with no change, the premium is 100, and the basis with SR01 is 354, up 15 [4] - SR01 price is 5366, down 15; SR05 price is 5320, down 18; SR01 - 05 spread is 46, up 3 [4] - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1318, up 0.0039 [4] International Data - The ICE raw sugar主力 price is 14.66, with no change; the London white sugar主力 price is 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 price is 63.66, with no change [4] - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of the sugar market, including price data, macro and industry news, and production and consumption forecasts. It suggests paying attention to the new sugar trading volume and policy changes in China's syrup and premix imports [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 14.75 cents/pound, down 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 5650 yuan/ton, down 110; the futures main price is 5458 yuan/ton, down 12 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 15 spread is 60 yuan/ton, down 6; the 59 spread is 0 yuan/ton, down 4; the mainstream spot basis is 192 yuan/ton, down 98 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Policy**: Pay attention to China's syrup and premix import policy changes [1]. - **Production**: The 25/26 sugar season's Indian sugar export quota is 1.5 million tons; Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year - on - year; China imported 550,000 tons of sugar in September, an increase of 150,000 tons [1]. - **Export**: Brazil exported 4.2 million tons in October, a 13% year - on - year increase [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **25/26 Forecast**: CAOC expects domestic sugar production to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [2]. - **24/25 Statistics**: As of the end of September, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons; the cumulative sales were 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons; the cumulative sales rate was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative imports were 4.63 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons [2]. - **Regional Forecast**: In the 25/26 sugar season, the Guangxi Sugar Association expects Guangxi's sugar production to be about 6.7 million tons, with a lower sugar yield and unchanged sugarcane purchase price; the Yunnan Sugar Association expects Yunnan's production to be about 2.6 million tons [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Supply Forecast**: ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [3]. - **Brazil Data**: As of November 1, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season decreased by 1.97 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production was 38.09 million tons, an increase of 610,000 tons [3]. - **India Forecast**: ISMA/NFCSF expects India's total sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 34.35 million tons, with 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons [3]. - **Thailand Data**: Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

Group 1 - Raw sugar has rebounded from a five-week decline, with attention on the 15-cent resistance level this week. If this resistance holds, it may indicate a short-term exhaustion of short positions, leading to a potential pullback towards the 14.70-cent support level [1] - The domestic market is currently weak as old sugar needs to be digested before new sugar enters the market. Prices are not high enough to encourage downstream replenishment, resulting in a continued consolidation phase [1] - The market in Liuzhou shows a cautious trading environment, with the contract displaying four consecutive doji candlesticks after a low of 5426, indicating indecision among buyers and sellers [1] Group 2 - The 2601 sugar futures contract shows a high and then a pullback, forming a shooting star pattern on the weekly chart, with 5460 as a key support level to watch [2] - Short-term indicators suggest a potential for oscillation within the range of 5460 to 5504, indicating a cautious trading approach [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Near the new crops in the Northern Hemisphere and the domestic cane sugar listing, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be mainly in a weak - oscillating pattern. The large current import volume of raw sugar and the gradually released pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports, along with an import cost of 5300 - 5400, are suppressing the futures market. The start of sugar mills in Yunnan and the upcoming concentrated start of sugar mills in Guangxi in mid - to - late November may create new selling pressure. However, as the current futures price is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, the futures market is expected to show a resistive decline before the new domestic sugar is listed [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Spot Price - In the domestic spot market, on November 10, 2025, the price per ton of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5730 yuan, down 30 yuan; in Kunming, it was 5650 yuan, unchanged; in Dali, Yunnan, it was 5500 yuan, unchanged; in Rizhao, Shandong, it was 5820 yuan, unchanged [4]. Futures Market Data - SR01 was at 5475, up 18; SRO5 was at 5405, up 8; the spread between SR01 - 05 was 70, up 10 [4]. Exchange Rates and International Futures - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1378, down 0.0015; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The ice raw sugar main contract was at 14.13, unchanged; the London white sugar main contract was at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract was at 63.7, unchanged [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, the sugar production in major global producing areas is increasing. Brazil's sugar production is at a historically high level, and India may export more sugar than expected, leading to a weak fundamental situation for raw sugar with a downward long - term trend [3]. - In the domestic market, short - term sugar production is expected to increase, and international sugar prices have dropped significantly. Although the supply and sales pressure is increasing, the tightening of syrup and premix imports and high previous pricing costs support the domestic sugar price. So, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, it will be affected by the international market and is expected to be weak, but the downward space is relatively limited due to policy support [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Core Logic - International sugar prices are weak due to high production in Brazil and potential high - volume exports from India. Domestic sugar prices are affected by both international factors and domestic policies, with short - term fluctuations and long - term weakness [3][4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices have ended the rebound and resumed the downward trend. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within the range, selling high and covering low [5]. - Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar [5]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar supply - demand gap is significantly narrowing. ISO predicts a 23.1 - million - ton supply gap, while Czarnikow predicts a 740 - million - ton supply surplus [11]. Brazil - Sugar production is expected to remain high at 4502 million tons in the 2025/26 season, slightly higher than the previous estimate [12]. - In the first half of October 2025, the bi - weekly sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.24%, and ethanol production showed a mixed trend [14]. - As of October 16, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region increased by 0.89% year - on - year, and the ethanol price center of gravity is expected to decline due to the gasoline price cut [23]. - As of the first half of October, the sugar inventory in the central - southern region increased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the export volume in October increased by 12.8% year - on - year [28]. Thailand - The new sugar season is expected to see a slight increase in production, and the export volume is expected to increase by 100 million tons [32]. India - The ISMA estimates the 2025/26 sugar season's total production at 3435 million tons, and the net production (excluding ethanol use) at 3095 million tons. India is capable of exporting nearly 200 million tons of sugar [41]. - As of July 2025, the 24/25 cumulative net export volume was 75.08 million tons. The November 2025 domestic sales quota decreased by 20 million tons year - on - year [41]. Domestic Market - Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang have mostly started production. Rainfall may increase beet yield but reduce sugar content. Yunnan's sugar mills may start production in mid - November [42]. - Import profits are relatively high. For example, the in - quota profit from Brazil is 1750 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota profit is over 600 yuan/ton [47]. - In September 2025, China imported 55 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 14.63 million tons. The import of syrup and premix decreased significantly. The predicted out - of - quota raw sugar arrival in October is 11.9 million tons [53]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - Data on Brazil's central - southern region includes cumulative cane crushing volume, sugar production, bi - weekly sugar - making ratio, etc. [23][55]. - Data on India includes double - week cumulative sugar production, domestic sales quota, and export volume [41]. - Domestic data includes sugar production progress, import volume of sugar, syrup, and premix [42][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Near the new crops in the Northern Hemisphere and the domestic cane sugar listing, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be mainly volatile and weak. The large current import volume of raw sugar and the gradually released pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports, with an import cost of 5300 - 5400, suppress the futures market. The initial crushing of sugar mills in Yunnan occurred two days ago, and Guangxi sugar mills are expected to start centralized crushing in mid - to late November, which may create new selling pressure. However, as the current futures market is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, the futures market is expected to show a resistant decline before the domestic new sugar is launched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Domestic Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, on November 5, 2025, the price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5720 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5520 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; and in Rizhao, Shandong it was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Futures Market - The price of SR01 was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; SR05 was 5393 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan; and the spread between SR01 and SR05 was 48, down 2 [4]. Exchange Rate and International Market - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1503, up 0.0071; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The price of the ICE raw sugar main contract was 14.21, unchanged; the price of the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the price of the Brent crude oil main contract was 64.35, unchanged [4].