热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周二，ICE美棉上涨0.55%，报收65.5美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨3.8%，报收15285元/吨，主力合 约持仓环比增加92446手至75.94万手。棉花3128B现货价格指数16205元/吨，较前一日上调415元/吨。节 后首个交易日，郑棉增仓上行，我们认为主要驱动如下：1、国内春假长假期间，ICE美棉期价上涨超 2%，对国内棉价有一定影响。2、USDA2月农业展望论坛预计2026/27年度全球、美国、中国棉花库销 比均同比下降，即2026/27年度全球多个棉花主产国供需格局将同比收窄。3、国内种植面积调减及目标 价格政策预期，现在已经是2月下旬，再有一个月左右时间国内新棉就将开始种植，植棉面积调控细则 逐渐明朗，目标价格补贴政策调整仍有预期。综合来看，我们认为后续内外棉共振程度或逐渐增强，短 期难现持续单边行情，但中长期来看，我们认为内外棉价上方均有一定空间。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保证，也 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者|中信建投期货研究发展部 陈家谊 研究助理|中信建投期货研究发展部 谢明妍 本报告完成时间|2026年2月8日 摘要 本周郑糖期价小幅下调后回升，价格重心低位企稳 ；ICE原糖延续低位震荡，外盘上行动能整体偏弱。 国际端，迪拜糖业大会指出2026/27榨季全球过剩或收窄至约140万吨，边际利多，对远期情绪有支撑， 但短期仍难改变"供应充裕"的主逻辑。资金面上，ICE原糖投机情绪偏空，基金投机净空头寸扩大至 23.9万手；贸易端方面，Williams显示巴西港口待装回落，出口压力边际缓和。与此同时，新榨季"糖醇 切换"仍在讨论阶段，影响更多停留在预期扰动，仍需数据兑现。 国内端，压榨旺季叠加消费淡季，现货去库压力仍存：广西1月产糖同比增加2.15万吨，但销量同比减 少8.29万吨；云南累计产糖98.41万吨，同比增幅明显；甜菜糖收尾阶段仓单增加，亦加大阶段性去库压 力。政策层面，一号文件强调"平稳发展"，体现稳预期托底。 策略建议： 期货交易咨询业务资格:证监许可〔2011〕1461号 分析师:陈家训 期货交易咨询从 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's key trading point is whether the current sugar price will bottom - out and rebound. The domestic sugar price is likely to follow the international raw sugar price, with limited upward space and significant pressure at the 60 - day moving average [1]. - The 15 - cent level of international raw sugar is difficult to hold. Due to global surplus, the 15.2 - cent cost line of Brazilian sugar may turn into pressure rather than support [1]. - After the stocking season ends, the 3 - 5 spread of sugar futures may decline as the 03 contract faces greater inventory pressure [3]. - The SR2605 contract is more likely to follow raw sugar fluctuations. The 2026 import pressure will increase from May, and the SR2609 contract has greater pressure than SR2605. New opportunities may emerge in the new 01 contract of the new crushing season [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - For the 05 contract, it is at a discount to the Guangxi sugar price but similar to the Brazilian out - of - quota import price, so it is likely to follow the raw sugar price. Currently, domestic sugar demand is average, and the weak international raw sugar price may drag down the domestic sugar price [1]. - The international raw sugar price has fallen below the 14.5 - 15 - cent oscillation range, and the 15.2 - cent cost line may become pressure due to global surplus [1]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a bottom - grinding phase. Zhengzhou sugar is oscillating narrowly, with significant pressure near the 60 - day moving average, and there is a risk of a post - rebound decline [8]. - There are no new basis and spread strategies. Past strategies include unilateral long SR2511 (stopped), selling spot and buying SR2511 (entered), long SR2511 and short SR2601 (exited), long SR2601 and short SR2605 (profited) [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted monthly sugar price range is 5000 - 5300 yuan, with a current volatility of 9.94% and a historical percentile of 2.2% in the past 3 years [12]. - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, enterprises can short Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 50% hedging ratio at 5300 - 5350 yuan and sell call options (SR603C5400) with a 50% ratio at 35 - 40 yuan to lock in profits and reduce costs [12]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can long Zhengzhou sugar futures (SR2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at 5150 - 5200 yuan and sell put options (SR603P5000) with a 50% ratio at 15 - 20 yuan to lock in procurement costs [12]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: EU's 2026/27 sugar production is expected to drop from 17.1 million tons to about 15.5 million tons due to reduced planting area. Brazil exported about 201,750 tons of sugar in January, a 2.09% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from April 2025 to January 2026 was 30.23 million tons, a 7.15% year - on - year decrease [13]. - **Negative Information**: As of February 5, 2026, 50 sugar mills in Yunnan have started crushing, 2 more than the same period last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of 181,900 tons, 7600 tons more than last year. By late February, all 52 mills will start crushing [14]. As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 Guangxi sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane input was 33.4306 million tons, a decrease of 3.0971 million tons year - on - year; the sugar output was 4.029 million tons, a decrease of 0.788 million tons; the sugar - making rate was 12.05%, a 1.14 - percentage - point decrease; the cumulative sales were 1.5506 million tons, a decrease of 0.8303 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 38.49%, a 10.94 - percentage - point decrease [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Brazil's weekly port waiting - to - ship sugar quantity and the number of ships (Thursday, Beijing time) [17]. - Brazil's weekly sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time) [19]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The domestic sugar price oscillated slightly downward last week. The main SR2605 contract fell 0.38% and reduced positions by 52.29 million lots. The largest profitable seat increased short positions, with a net short position of 31,000 lots, and foreign - funded seats increased net short positions slightly to 45,800 lots. Technically, Zhengzhou sugar is in an oscillatory adjustment, with significant pressure near the 60 - day moving average [20]. - The basis structure shows that the cheapest deliverable is at an 8 - yuan discount to the disk, stronger than last week due to the rising import sugar price. The import profit has declined. The domestic spot price is stable, and the domestic cheapest deliverable is at a 78 - yuan premium to the disk [23]. - The 3 - 5 spread has been oscillating since January and rebounded slightly last week. After the stocking season, the spread may decline as the 03 contract has greater inventory pressure [24]. - **International Market**: The raw sugar price fell 0.84% last week, closing at 14.14 cents, breaking the 14.5 - 15 - cent oscillation range. The CFTC non - commercial position maintained a large short position, with a net short position of 182,000 lots, a decrease of 21,000 lots from the previous week [26]. - The raw sugar futures structure is changing to a Contango structure. The 2025/26 production in Thailand decreased by 25% year - on - year, India's production increased by 22%, and Brazil's production increased. The premium of the far - month contract is beneficial for sugar mills to hedge, and there is hedging pressure above 15.2 cents [30]. - **Domestic - International Spread Tracking**: Due to the quota system, the domestic and international sugar prices are related. Currently, the domestic market is strong and the international market is weak, with good import profits. The domestic spot market is stable, and the international market is weak due to supply surplus in the 2025/26 crushing season [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - China is a net sugar importer with high production costs, implementing a quota system with a 15% in - quota tariff and a 50% out - of - quota tariff. Recently, due to the falling international price and stable domestic price, the out - of - quota import profit is substantial. The import of syrup and premixed powder is relatively stable [35]. 3.5 Supply and Inventory Deduction - In the 2025/26 crushing season, the overall sugar production is expected to increase slightly to about 11.56 million tons, a 3.56% year - on - year growth, based on the planting area and cane growth. Other data are estimated based on the 2024/25 season and are for reference only [37].

Group 1: Sugar Market Overview - In January, raw sugar prices fluctuated mainly between 14.5-15 cents per pound. A report from Green Pool forecasts a global sugar surplus of 156,000 tons for the 2026/27 season, down from 2.74 million tons in 2025/26, primarily due to a decrease in sugar production. Global sugar production is expected to decline from 197.5 million tons in 2025/26 to 195.91 million tons in 2026/27, while consumption is projected to increase by 0.5% from 193.73 million tons to 194.72 million tons [3][12][14]. Group 2: Domestic Sugar Prices - In China, the Guangxi Sugar Group quoted prices between 5,290-5,370 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the beginning of the month. The Yunnan Sugar Group's prices ranged from 5,150-5,220 yuan per ton. The estimated import price for quota imports is 4,030-4,050 yuan per ton, remaining stable since early January, while the price for non-quota imports is estimated at 5,100-5,140 yuan per ton [12][13]. Group 3: Sugar Imports - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 188,500 tons year-on-year. Cumulatively, China imported 4.9188 million tons of sugar in 2025, up by 562,200 tons year-on-year. By the end of December 2025/26 season, cumulative sugar imports reached 1.7635 million tons, an increase of 301,700 tons year-on-year [13]. Group 4: Syrup and Premix Powder Imports - In December, the total imports of syrup and premix powder amounted to 69,700 tons, a decrease of 120,800 tons year-on-year. For the entire year of 2025, imports of syrup and premix powder totaled 1.1888 million tons, down by 1.1879 million tons year-on-year. By the end of December 2025/26 season, imports of syrup and premix powder totaled 299,600 tons, a decrease of 339,500 tons year-on-year [14]. Group 5: Domestic Production Insights - In January, sugar production in Guangxi and Yunnan was steadily progressing, with production estimates for Guangxi remaining at 6.8-7 million tons. The market sentiment is cautious due to expectations of reduced imports and macroeconomic improvements. February is expected to see a slowdown in spot transactions due to the Spring Festival, with market sentiment remaining cautious [15][16].

Sugar Market - Raw sugar prices continue to fluctuate within a range, with Thailand's sugarcane crushing volume for the 25/26 season at 29.26 million tons, down 16.09% from last year [2][15] - The sugar content in sugarcane is 11.95%, slightly up from 11.87% last year, while the sugar production rate is 9.79%, down from 9.81% [2][15] - Domestic sugar prices are quoted at 5260-5360 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5110-5160 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import estimates for quota within 4020-4030 CNY/ton and outside quota at 5090-5100 CNY/ton [2][15] Cotton Market - The USDA's January report has reduced global cotton production expectations, with U.S. and Indian production down, while China's production is expected to increase [5][17] - The global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 26.003 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from the previous month [5][18] - As of January 15, China's cotton processing volume is 7.128 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year-on-year [5][21] Demand and Retail - Retail sales growth in December slowed, particularly in clothing and textiles, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.6% in clothing and related goods [5][23] - The overall yarn production load was 48.98%, down 0.4 percentage points week-on-week, while cotton yarn factory load was 45.9%, down 0.2 percentage points [5][23] Import and Export - The cotton price difference between domestic and international markets remains high, with cotton and yarn imports reaching recent highs, while clothing exports remain weak [5][24] - In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 60,000 tons month-on-month and 40,000 tons year-on-year [5][25] - Clothing and accessory exports in December amounted to $13.412 billion, down 10.19% year-on-year [5][25] Inventory Levels - Commercial cotton inventory in China as of mid-January is 5.8623 million tons, up 77,600 tons month-on-month and 83,300 tons year-on-year [5][26] - The overall inventory of yarn is approximately 32 days, with a slight decrease week-on-week [5][26] International Market Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing disturbances, with limited fundamental drivers, leading to a predominantly fluctuating market [5][10] - The USDA's January report indicates a slight improvement in the supply-demand balance for U.S. cotton, but the overall market remains oversupplied [5][27] Domestic Market Focus - The focus is shifting back to fundamentals as the market anticipates the impact of upcoming policies, with cotton production expected to reach a ten-year high [5][28] - The cotton commercial inventory is at a peak for the 2025/26 season, expected to decline after February [5][28]

农产品早报 2026-01-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 目前原糖价格已经跌破巴西乙醇折算价的支撑，在今年 4 月后巴西新榨季生产存在着下调甘蔗制糖比例 的可能性。等待 2 月北半球开始收榨，增产利空基本兑现以后，国际糖价可能会迎来一波反弹。国内当 前进口糖源供应逐步减少，随着糖价跌至低位水平，短线往下空间或有限，暂时观望。 【行情资讯】 棉花 周五郑州棉花期货价格震荡，郑棉5月合约收盘价报14695元/吨，较前一个交易日下跌35元/吨，或0.24%。 现货方面，中国棉花价格指数(CCIndex)3128B 报 15870 元/吨，较上个交易日上涨 31 元/吨。 组长、生鲜品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 软商品、油脂油料研究员 据 UNICA 数据显示，2025 年 12 月下半月巴西中南部压榨甘蔗 217.1 万吨，同比增长 26.60%，糖产量为 5.6 万吨，同比减少 14.93%，甘蔗制糖比 21. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downside space of the sugar price in the short - term is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the large short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish. Although the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season, the increase in China's purchase of US soybeans supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic meal prices. The possible significant reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices. The protein meal price has fallen to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term volatility will increase. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - For oils and fats, the high production and weak exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventories. The inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats is also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamentals are weak. However, in the long - term, the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, the confiscation of illegal plantations in Indonesia, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean - oil consumption in 2026 are positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [18]. - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under the previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - festival stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations due to the peak of production capacity, but the realization path is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [21]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption. The large difference between the prices of fat and standard pigs has led to sentiment of holding back sales and delaying slaughter. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has increased significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction has not been resolved, and the downward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, which may continue to support the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the live - pig inventory piling up later. The far - end price may still be under pressure in the future [24]. Summary by Product Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5158 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5260 - 5330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - **Industry Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar production had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,730 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton or 1.34% from the previous trading day. The spot price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons, the production forecast for India was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and the production forecast for China was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China in that week was 13,600 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 85,300 tons, a decrease of 71,200 tons year - on - year [7][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2768 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - **Industry Data**: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Among them, the supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and the supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24%. China and Canada reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China promised to reduce the combined import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% at one time. As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 30.64 million tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 1.22 million tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 8.12 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 55.97%, an increase of 6.47 percentage points year - on - year. The sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8084 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8944 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton or 1.27% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9002 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8650 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9830 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Industry Data**: From January 1 - 20, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 16.49%, and the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%. As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (i.e., the B50 plan) this year and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. In December 2025, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November 2025. As of the end of December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons. The production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons. The export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons [15][17]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Yesterday, most of the national egg prices rose, and a few remained stable. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.08 yuan to 3.73 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao rose 0.12 yuan to 3.56 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui remained unchanged at 3.64 yuan/jin. The supply was limited, the downstream sales speed increased, most traders' confidence in the future market recovered, the inventory in most links was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. It is expected that most of the national egg prices may rise today, and a few may remain stable [20]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price rose in the north and fell in the south. The average price in Henan rose 0.06 yuan to 13.13 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.1 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg. The breeding side in the northern region showed a mentality of holding back sales, and it may be more difficult for the downstream to purchase pigs at low prices. The pig price may rise slightly today. The sales in the southern market were weak, and the breeding side may still have actions to reduce prices for sales. The pig price may continue to decline [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, after the northern hemisphere starts to finish sugar extraction in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and positive macro - economic expectations, cotton prices still have room to rise. However, due to the recent sharp increase, it needs time to adjust. It is recommended to wait for a correction before going long [9] - For protein meal, the January USDA report is slightly bearish, but the overall balance sheet is better than that of 2024/2025. China's increased purchase of US soybeans supports CBOT soybean prices but is bearish for domestic meal prices. The possible reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a significant negative factor. Protein meal prices have fallen to previous lows, and short - term volatility will increase [12] - For oils, the current fundamentals of palm oil are weak due to high production, low exports, and high inventories in major producing areas, and high domestic inventories. But in the long - term, with the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026, the outlook is optimistic. It is advisable to wait and see for now [18] - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - holiday stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to reach its seasonal peak. The short - term contract may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The long - term contract has positive expectations but with uncertain implementation paths [21] - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption, and the large price difference between fat and standard pigs has led to hoarding. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has risen significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction remains unresolved, and the spot price has limited downward momentum, supporting the short - term contract to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the large supply base and the risk of inventory accumulation may still put pressure on prices [24] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The closing price of the May contract was 5,188 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day. The price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was quoted at 5,290 - 5,360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 570,000 tons. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 310,000 tons. In the first half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 254,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.8%. As of December, India's sugar production reached 1.5909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared to the same period last year [3] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract was 14,525 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,856 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6] - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but an 8.6 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [6] Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May soybean meal contract was 2,736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May rapeseed meal contract was 2,229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day [10] - **Industry Data**: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. The supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [11] Oils - **Market Quotes**: On Tuesday, the oils futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May soybean oil contract was 8,032 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May palm oil contract was 8,748 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton or 1.16% from the previous trading day [14] - **Industry Data**: As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons [15][17] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, most egg prices in China were stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 3.65 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 3.4 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin. The price in Dongguan rose 0.06 yuan to 3.51 yuan/jin [20] - **Industry Outlook**: The supply is basically normal, the downstream sales speed is acceptable, and most traders' confidence in the future market has slightly recovered. The inventory at each link has slightly increased, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is stable. It is expected that most egg prices in China will be stable today, with a few rising or falling [20] Pigs - **Market Quotes**: On the previous day, domestic pig prices generally fell, with some areas remaining stable. The average price in Henan dropped 0.18 yuan to 13.35 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan remained at 13.02 yuan/kg [23] - **Industry Outlook**: Currently, the enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is high, but the downstream demand support is insufficient, and the market sales are poor. Farmers may have an intention to reduce prices, and pig prices are expected to decline today [23]

Group 1: Sugar Market Overview - Raw sugar prices are approaching the lower end of the range this week, with 519 sugar factories in operation as of January 15, 2025/26 crushing season, processing 17,637.4 million tons of sugarcane, an increase of 2,798 million tons or 18.85% year-on-year. Sugar production reached 1,588.5 million tons, up 282.5 million tons or 21.63% from the previous year, with a sugar production rate of 9.01%, higher than 8.80% last year [2][9] - Domestic spot prices are reported at 5,320 to 5,380 CNY/ton for Guangxi Sugar Group and 5,190 to 5,230 CNY/ton for Yunnan Sugar Group. Estimated import prices are 4,000 to 4,040 CNY/ton for quota imports and 5,060 to 5,120 CNY/ton for non-quota imports [2][9] Group 2: Global Sugar Production Insights - In India, as of January 15, sugar production has increased by over 21% year-on-year, with the Indian Sugar Mills Association projecting a total production of 35 million tons for the current season, of which 3.5 million tons will be used for ethanol production, leaving an ending stock of 7.5 million tons, slightly above previous estimates [3][10] - Thailand has experienced a decline in sugarcane crushing, sugar production rate, and sugar output due to earlier rainfall, but recovery is expected as production progresses. The increase in production expectations in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to exert downward pressure on prices, although significant price drops are not anticipated in the short term, with prices expected to remain volatile [3][10] Group 3: Domestic Market Dynamics - With the Spring Festival approaching in one month, current spot transactions are expected to continue for 1-2 weeks before slowing down, as production in sugar-producing regions continues and inventory accumulates. Recent rumors regarding imports have created market divergence, and while the recent bullish trend has cooled, prices are expected to remain under pressure due to ongoing inventory accumulation [4][10] Group 4: Cotton Market Overview - The USDA's January report has reduced global cotton production forecasts, particularly for the US and India, while increasing expectations for China. Current cotton inspection volumes are approximately 7 million tons [4][11] - Demand from downstream textile enterprises has slightly decreased, with textile and apparel exports in December showing a year-on-year decline of around 10% [4][12] Group 5: International Cotton Market Insights - The macroeconomic environment remains volatile, with limited upward drivers despite some improvement in fundamentals. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in January, with a 95% probability of no rate cuts, and the US dollar index has rebounded above 99 [5][13] - The USDA's January report indicates a reduction in the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast by 76,000 tons to 3.031 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. The adjusted cotton stock-to-use ratio is approximately 30.6%, indicating a slight easing of supply-demand conditions [5][13] Group 6: Domestic Cotton Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices have narrowed, with market focus shifting back to the profitability and operational status of downstream textile enterprises. The operating rate of textile enterprises has shown a decline, and inventory levels vary significantly among different-sized enterprises [6][14] - As the Spring Festival approaches, large textile enterprises have sufficient reserves, while those with lower inventory levels may cease operations once their stocks are depleted. If cotton prices decline, there is strong support for price stabilization from textile enterprises [6][14]

Group 1 - Thailand's sugar production is projected to reach 10.3 million tons in 2025/26, followed by a decrease to 10 million tons in 2026/27 according to the Thai Sugar Industry Committee [1] - Indian sugar mills have signed export contracts for approximately 180,000 tons of sugar this year, driven by domestic price adjustments and a weak rupee [1] - The FAO sugar price index averaged 90.7 points in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.1 points (2.4%), but a year-on-year decline of 28.6 points (24.0%) [1] Group 2 - The focus in the market has shifted to the production situation in the Northern Hemisphere, with strong expectations for increased production in India [2] - Domestic sugar supply pressure is expected to increase as new sugar production begins, with high import volumes anticipated in January [2] - The current sugar market may face limited upward potential due to significant supply pressures from both domestic and imported sugar [2] Group 3 - Brazilian sugar production is nearing its end, alleviating seasonal supply pressures, while raw sugar is expected to maintain a weak trend [3] - Southern sugar mills in China are starting to process, leading to a seasonal increase in sugar supply, which will gradually reveal supply pressures [3] - Domestic sugar production costs are relatively high, providing support for the market, despite the anticipated seasonal supply pressures and increased production [3]