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白糖市场周报-20251010
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 09:11
白糖市场周报 研究员:王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 关 注 微信客 服 号 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 行情展望:巴西对外贸易秘书处公布的出口数据显示,巴西9月份出口食糖324.58 万吨,环比减少49.32万吨,同比减少16.3%。巴西2025/26榨季(4月-次年3月) 以来,截至2025年9月巴西糖累计出口1775万吨,同比减少8.73%,巴西出口糖环 比减少,受国际糖价下跌及需求疲软等多重因素影响,显示出当前巴西糖出口正面 临较大压力。国内市场:受台风"麦德姆"带来强降雨影响,广西部分甘蔗出现倒 伏等情况,产量或带来影响。不过北方甜菜产区糖厂陆续开机生产,加之9月关税 配额外原糖预报到港数量为46万吨,供应将逐渐增加。 交易策略:操作上,建议郑糖2601合约短期偏空对待。 未来关注因素: 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾:本周郑糖2601合约价格微涨,周度涨幅约0.05%。 1、国内产销情况 2、新季产量 3 「 期现市场情况」 本周美糖市场 图1、 ...
日度策略参考-20251010
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:32
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current economic operation is generally weak, and subsequent incremental policies may be further introduced. The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. - Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts this year. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - For polysilicon, there is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, they ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - For iron ore, the anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - For glass, the anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - For soda ash, it follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - For coking coal, the 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For palm oil, Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - For soybean oil, China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - For rapeseed products, the ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - For raw sugar, the high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - For corn, without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - For soybean meal, the domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - For pulp, the current trading logic is about the trading of old needle - wood pulp warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the pressure on the futures market is high. It is advisable to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - For log futures, the fundamentals of logs are strong, the foreign - market quotation has risen, and the spot price has increased, so the log futures will be strong [1]. - For live pigs, the pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight has not decreased significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The overall outlook is bearish [1]. - For crude oil, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the geopolitical situation has cooled down, and demand has entered the off - season, so it will fluctuate [1]. - For fuel oil, it has the same situation as crude oil, with OPEC+ continuing to increase production, the geopolitical situation cooling down, and demand entering the off - season [1]. - For asphalt, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma瑞 crude oil is sufficient [1]. - For natural rubber, there are many disturbances on the supply side, inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the RU warehouse receipts are significantly less than the same period in previous years, so it is bullish [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are continuously loose, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, downstream transactions have become dull, and high - level production and high inventory have not been the main factors for suppression [1]. - For PTA, the crude - oil price is weak, the PX market trading is dull, the Asian naphtha cracking is running stably, the price difference between PX and MX has dropped to $132, supporting the short - process profit of PX. Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotational maintenance, and domestic PTA production has declined [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East - China ports is still low, the port arrivals this week are still limited, the overseas ethylene - glycol import is expected to decline, and domestic plant commissioning has put continuous pressure on the ethylene - glycol price. After the holiday, as the peak season for polyester is coming to an end, polyester is expected to be weak [1]. - For short - fiber, short - fiber factory plants are gradually resuming operation. As the price falls, the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts in the market has weakened [1]. - For styrene, the international crude - oil market is weak, the US benzene price is relatively low compared to the gasoline price, the economy of STDP is obviously weak, and the US export demand is still restricted by arbitrage. New domestic styrene plants have been put into operation, but the downstream polymer industry has stagnated [1]. - For lime, the export sentiment has eased slightly, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the upside space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - For DR357, the center of the crude - oil market price has been slightly adjusted downward, the maintenance intensity has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, so the price will fluctuate strongly [1]. - For PVC, the maintenance support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, the market is returning to fundamentals, and there is large supply pressure due to less maintenance compared to the previous period, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts, so the price will fluctuate weakly [1]. - For caustic soda, many alumina plants in Guangxi are planning to start production, there are unplanned maintenance increases in Shandong in October, the factory loads in South China and Zhejiang are difficult to increase in the short term, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts. The short - term futures price is bearish, and it is bullish in the medium term [1]. - For LPG, OPEC's production increase and high domestic crude - oil inventory are suppressing the upward momentum of LPG. The international CP and FEI prices have weakened, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, with the peak season not being prosperous [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, the price has gradually fallen to a low level, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound, it is gradually entering the contract - changing period, and the freight rate is close to the full - cost line, so it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through a key level, and the upside space may be further opened. It is advisable to go long on stock index futures when the opportunity arises [1]. - Bond Futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upside space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Due to the US government shutdown, political risks in France and Japan rising, and the US ADP data falling short of expectations, which boosts the expectation of interest - rate cuts, the price of gold is expected to continue to be strong [1]. - Silver: The soft squeeze on foreign - market silver has driven the domestic silver price to be strong, but short - term risks of profit - taking at high levels need to be watched out for [1]. - Copper: The US ADP non - farm payrolls falling short of expectations has boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia has exacerbated concerns about the tight global copper supply, and the copper price will continue to be strong [1]. - Aluminum: The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, combined with the limited supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum, will keep the price strong in the short term [1]. - Alumina: The production and inventory of alumina continue to increase, and the weak fundamentals are pressuring the spot price. However, the alumina price is approaching the cost line, and the downside space is expected to be limited [1]. - Zinc: Global political risks have risen due to events such as the US government shutdown, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced. The non - ferrous sector is strong. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory is expected to support the domestic zinc price, but the domestic social inventory has increased after the holiday, and high - level selling hedging opportunities can be considered [1]. - Nickel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, boosting non - ferrous metals. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented, and the quota approval situation in 2026 should be monitored in the fourth quarter. Nickel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but high inventory may limit the upside space. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short term, and there is still pressure from long - term nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The US government shutdown and the US ADP employment falling short of expectations have led to an increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts. The RKAB policy in Indonesia has been implemented. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to operate on a short - term basis and wait for high - level selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: Due to macro - level positives and the impact of Indonesia's ore export ban, the shortage of tin ore supply has intensified, and the tin price is expected to continue to strengthen [1]. Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: It is in the wet season in the southwest and continuous resumption of production in the northwest, and there is an expectation of production cuts in polysilicon, so it is bearish [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, an increase in silicon wafer production scheduling, and the long - term anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and market sentiment has subsided, so it will fluctuate [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and supply - side production scheduling has increased [1]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They ended the long holiday stably, the industrial driving force is unclear, and the valuation is low, so they will fluctuate [1]. - Iron Ore: The anti - involution logic is subject to tidal trading. The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply is recovering while demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Glass: The anti - involution logic is tidal, the pressure of supply surplus still exists, and the price is under pressure despite the marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows glass, with a weak reality and large supply - surplus pressure, so the price is under pressure [1]. - Coking Coal: The 05 contract failed to reach a new high before the holiday. Although the spot is strong, the expectation has weakened. The spot and futures prices are still in the process of bottom - searching, but considering that many short - sellers rushed to sell before the holiday, it is not appropriate to continue to short, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Indonesia plans to implement B50 in the second half of 2026, which may have a bearish impact on near - month contracts, but there is still support for far - month contracts after 05. The MPOB September report is expected to show production cuts and inventory reduction, which will support the price [1]. - Soybean Oil: China's restriction on rare - earth exports is a bargaining chip in Sino - US negotiations. COFCO Yihai exporting 10,000 tons of soybean oil each in December will accelerate the inventory reduction of soybean oil. The expected reduction of US soybean ending inventory has led to poor crushing margins, and the subsequent reduction in raw materials and oil - mill crushing will support the soybean - oil price [1]. - Rapeseed Products: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the double festivals, supporting international rapeseed products prices, but there is no new driving force. It may be driven up by soybean and palm oil, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price will probably fluctuate widely within a range. In the long term, the market may face pressure as new cotton comes onto the market [1]. - Raw Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be reduced, and the raw - sugar price has started to rebound from the bottom, but the upside space is relatively limited due to oversupply. In the domestic market, the large - scale import has led to the full operation of sugar - processing plants, and there is still pressure on the spot price. It is expected that the overall rebound space is limited, and the strategy of shorting at high levels should be maintained [1]. - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, under the expectation of selling pressure for the new - season corn and the decline in planting costs, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. The grain - storage rhythm of traders and policy changes should be monitored [1]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic soybean - buying and crushing margins are poor, and the domestic market has no obvious premium due to the trade war. The valuation is low. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American weather. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the opportunity arises [1]. - Pulp: The current trading logic is about the trading of
白糖数据日报-20251010
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:27
国内白糖工业库存 巴西糖配额外进口利润 2000 ---- 19/20 ------ 20/21 ------ 21/22 ------- 22/23 ------- 22/23 -------- 23/24 - - 24/25 800 1500 1000 500 600 0 -500 -1000 400 -1500 -2000 -2500 200 2017 ==2018 == 2020 =2016 · 0 2021 == 2023 == 2024 === 2024 === 2025 11月 10月 12月 2月 3月 5月 6月 9月 1月 4月 7月 8月 柳州-01基差 郑糖1-5月差 500 1000 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 0 0 -200 -400 -100 -600 -200 6月21日 7月21日 8月21日 9月21日 10月21日 11月21日 12月21日 5月21日 SR1701-SR1705 -SR1801-SR1805 -SR1901-SR1905 -SR2001-SR2005 SR2101-SR2105 -SR2201-SR2205 -SR ...
供需格局转向宽松 中长期糖价承压
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-10 01:21
8月以来,国内白糖市场承压。期货方面,郑糖2601合约一度跌至5424元/吨,逼近广西制糖成本线。 现货方面,制糖集团降价去库,广西糖企现货报价回调至5800元/吨。节前外盘原糖期价小幅反弹,对 郑糖价格有所提振,但市场情绪仍偏弱。 巴西产量恢复 全球糖市供应正从短缺转向过剩。咨询机构StoneX预计,得益于巴西、印度和泰国的食糖产量增加, 2025/2026榨季全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。全球最大产糖国巴西中南部主产区虽开榨不利,但8月以来 食糖生产恢复超预期。巴西蔗糖工业协会数据显示,9月上半月巴西中南部甘蔗压榨量为4597.3万吨, 同比增长6.94%,食糖产量为362.2万吨,同比增长15.72%。压榨高峰期天气干燥,叠加糖厂制糖比处于 历史高位,前期生产缺口逐渐回补。截至9月上半月,2025/2026榨季巴西中南部累计产糖3038.8万吨, 同比微降0.08%。 此外,新榨季印度和泰国食糖产量有望增长。印度制糖和生物能源制造商协会预计,2025/2026年度印 度食糖产量有望达到3490万吨,同比增长近18%。泰国甘蔗种植面积持续增长。 主产区有较强丰产预期,供应端压力增加,全球糖市或进入累库周期。 ...
日度策略参考-20250930
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:20
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Crude oil [1] - Bearish: Short fiber, Styrene [1] - Volatile: Index, Treasury bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot-rolled coil, Iron ore, Coke, Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live pigs, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Black liquor, PVC, LPG, Shipping freight [1] Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by multiple factors such as asset shortages, weak economies, mine production disruptions, seasonal demand changes, and geopolitical situations. Before the National Day holiday, market sentiment is volatile, and funds have a demand for risk aversion. Different industries and varieties show different trends, and investors are advised to control positions and pay attention to supply - demand and macro - economic changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term bullish, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern before the National Day holiday is low. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and weak economies are beneficial, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk prompts suppress the upward space [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Gold: May fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, but beware of increased volatility during the National Day holiday [1] - Silver: Expected to run strongly in the short term, but beware of sharp fluctuations during the National Day holiday. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Copper: The accident at the Indonesian Grasberg mine has reduced production by 35% (annual output of 800,000 metric tons of metal), intensifying concerns about tight global copper supply. The price may run strongly in the short term [1] - Aluminum: The impact of macroscopic factors has weakened, and the price may fluctuate based on fundamentals [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are increasing, pressuring the spot price, but the price is approaching the cost line, and the downward space is limited [1] - Zinc: The supply delay of Huoshaoyun has improved the fundamentals, but high social inventories are still pressuring the price [1] - Nickel: Short - term volatility may be upward, but there is still long - term pressure from the surplus of primary nickel. Suggest short - term trading in intervals and light positions during the holiday [1] - Stainless steel: Raw material prices are firm, social inventories are increasing, and the futures price may fluctuate in the short term. Suggest short - term trading and waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1] - Tin: The demand in the peak season is expected to improve, and low - buying opportunities can be concerned [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The upward driving force of the industry is insufficient, and there is a risk of weakening supply and demand in the fourth quarter. Suggest reducing positions during the holiday [1] - Hot - rolled coil: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand and high inventories [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: After the coking coal 05 contract reached a new high and then sharply corrected, before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 10th Central Committee, the policy may enter a window period. Before the holiday, long - position holders should gradually exit the market, and if there is a rally, short - selling hedging is the main strategy [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and Indian purchases impact the price, but the September production reduction in Malaysia and biodiesel demand support it. The price is expected to recover from the previous over - decline [1] - Soybean oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and domestic purchases may supplement the supply, weakening the fourth - quarter destocking expectation. The price is expected to recover from the over - decline. Suggest waiting and seeing [1] - Rapeseed oil: The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term remains unchanged. Positive spreads are preferred [1] - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate widely within a range, and there may be pressure in the long term with the listing of new cotton [1] - Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be adjusted downward, and the raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited due to oversupply. In China, the import increase and processing plant operation still bring pressure, and short - selling at high prices is still recommended [1] - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. Pay attention to traders' purchasing rhythm and policy changes [1] - Soybean: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing margin is poor, and the price has support at the bottom. Suggest buying at low prices. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American planting - season weather [1] - Pulp: The bottom range of the pulp futures has initially emerged, but there is no bullish driver yet. Pay attention to the warehouse - receipt cancellation volume after September delivery. The futures price will fluctuate [1] - Log: The fundamentals of logs have no obvious changes. The overseas quotation has decreased, and the spot price is firm. The log futures will fluctuate [1] - Live pigs: The pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight does not decrease significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The market is generally bearish [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Driven by short - term geopolitical tensions and a second - consecutive - week decline in US crude oil inventories [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by factors such as a super typhoon in South China, continuous inventory decline, and a significant reduction in RU warehouse receipts compared to the same period in previous years [1] - BR rubber: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are loose, the synthetic rubber supply is abundant, the downstream transactions are weakening, the warehouse receipts on the disk are sharply reduced, and the inter - month spread is widening. Pay attention to the capital - flow trend [1] - PTA: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the PTA output is increasing, the PTA basis is rapidly declining, the crude oil price is falling, the PX plant maintenance is postponed, and the downstream polyester profit is significantly repaired, with the operating load rising to 91% [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis of ethylene glycol is strengthening, but the upcoming commissioning of the Yulong Petrochemical ethylene glycol plant puts pressure on the disk. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol plants has decreased, but the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery [1] - Short fiber: Short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened as the price falls [1] - Styrene: The supply of pure benzene and styrene is continuously increasing after the end of maintenance, the Yulong Petrochemical plant is about to be commissioned, and the import pressure of domestic pure benzene is increasing due to the unopened South Korea - US price difference [1] - Black liquor: The export sentiment has eased, the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1] - PVC: The domestic PVC plants are gradually resuming production, the supply pressure is increasing, and the near - month warehouse receipts are abundant. The price will fluctuate weakly [1] - LPG: OPEC+ production increase and high domestic crude oil inventories suppress the upward momentum of LPG, the chemical demand is weak, and the profit negative feedback leads to a decline in the cost PG [1]
白糖数据日报-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:32
白糖数据日报 | 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/9/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团白 | | 地区 | 2025/9/26 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2601基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 5890 | 0 | 0 | 438 | 18 | | 吨价现 | | 昆明 | 5810 | 0 | -100 | 458 | 18 | | いで貨 | 云南 | 大理 | 5675 | 0 | -140 | 363 | 18 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 5900 | 0 | 100 | 348 | 18 | | 数盘 | | SR09 | 5452 | -18 | SR09-01 | | | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5478 | -7 | | -26 | -11 | | 国 | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 1529 | 0. 0052 | ice原 ...
白糖日报-20250929
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 04:21
行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 29 日 研究员:王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价(元/吨 美分/磅) | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 ...
传统需求旺季已接近尾声 预计白糖延续区间震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-26 07:01
Market Review - On Thursday evening, white sugar futures fell by 0.05% to 5494 CNY/ton, while raw sugar rose by 0.99 the previous night [1] Fundamental Summary - The Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has urged the government to raise the minimum selling price (MSP) for sugar for the 2025-26 crushing season to at least 40.2 INR per kilogram, an increase of approximately 9 INR from the current level [2] - Stonex forecasts a global sugar surplus of 2.77 million tons for the 2025-26 season starting in October, compared to a shortage of 4.67 million tons for the 2024-25 season [2] - According to data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76 as of the week ending September 24, down from 85 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting for shipment at ports was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week [2] Institutional Views - Dongwu Futures indicates that Brazil is experiencing a supply peak, with a significant increase in sugar production in the second half of August, which continues to pressure sugar prices. The expectation of increased domestic production for the new crushing season remains unchanged, and the import of sugar syrup and premixed powder continues to rise, leading to increasing supply pressure. The traditional demand peak is nearing its end, with general domestic spot transactions, and futures prices are supported by inventory, expected to continue in a range-bound fluctuation [3] - Minmetals Futures notes that due to record high domestic imports in August and a significant year-on-year increase in sugar production in Brazil's central-south region, Zheng sugar has broken down, maintaining a bearish outlook on sugar prices. However, from a technical perspective, a significant increase in positions but a decrease in trading volume and narrowing price declines are unfavorable for further declines, suggesting a wait-and-see approach before the National Day holiday [3]
供应压力未完全释放 白糖反弹持续性仍需观察
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-24 06:06
机构观点 中财期货: 原糖受近月合约反弹带动,主力合约期价反弹至16美分/磅以上,预计近期将宽度震荡,但供应压力仍 未完全释放,反弹持续性仍需观察。国内近期现货市场情绪悲观,昨日产区、加工糖报价均有下调,短 期供应充足,市场情绪脆弱。期货方面仍是原糖引领,昨日原糖交割行情反弹带动下,夜盘跟随反弹。 基本面仍处于弱势格局中,未来影响因素在于内蒙糖压榨进度及广西预售情况。对于期价暂时维持弱势 看法,关注原糖表现。 国信期货: 糖市基本面仍旧承压。预计自10月开始的2025/26年度,全球糖市将有277万吨的供应过剩,而2024/25 年度为供应短缺467万吨。郑糖夜盘跟随外盘反弹。短期5500元/吨左右的支撑跌破,郑糖持续寻底。夜 盘出现减仓反弹,若能持续,有望出现短期底部。操作上建议以短线交易为主。 消息面 StoneX表示,巴西中南部地区2026/27年度的食糖产量预计将达到4210万吨,较上一年度增加5.7%。这 是该咨询公司对新一年度作出的首次预测。StoneX补充称,2026/27年度中南部地区的甘蔗压榨量预计 将达到6.205亿吨,增长3.6%。 9月23日,我国以进口巴西原糖为原料生产的白糖其销售利 ...
国贸期货日度策略参考-20250924
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 06:01
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, LPG [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Most other commodities including various metals, agricultural products, and energy - related products [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but there is a low probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday, so it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the short - term interest - rate risk warning from the central bank restrains the upward movement [1]. - For most commodities, market sentiment is changeable, and it is necessary to pay attention to domestic and foreign policy changes. The end - of - year demand season and supply - side factors such as production, inventory, and mine quota approvals have a significant impact on prices [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral upward trend before National Day, control positions [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest - rate risk warning restrains upward movement [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Short - term likely to be strong, but beware of increased volatility before National Day [1] - **Copper**: Price is under pressure after the Fed's rate - cut decision, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand [1] - **Aluminum**: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside due to the coming consumption season [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but limited downside as the price approaches the cost line [1] - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures the price, back to fundamentals after macro events [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation may be strong, affected by Indonesian mine quotas and raw material prices, operate short - term and light - position for the holiday [1] - **Tin**: There is an expectation of improvement in the demand peak season, pay attention to low - long opportunities [1] - **TV Silicon and Polysilicon**: Affected by supply resumption, production cut expectations, and market sentiment [1] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, and Iron Ore**: Valuation returns to neutral, unclear industrial drivers, and warm macro - drivers [1] - **Manganese Silicate and Silicon Iron**: Negative short - term fundamentals, supply recovery, potential demand weakening, and high inventory [1] - **Plate**: Supply surplus pressure persists, marginal improvement in peak - season demand, price under pressure [1] - **Soda Ash**: Supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a sharp callback, the bottom is supported, and the short - term may oscillate, consider reducing long positions [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Palm oil may be long at low levels in the oscillation range; soybean oil is bullish in the long - term; rapeseed oil shows a de - stocking trend, recommend long and positive spreads between months [1] - **Cotton**: Short - term wide - range oscillation, potential pressure after new cotton is launched [1] - **Raw Sugar**: Bottom - out rebound, limited upside due to supply surplus, consider shorting at high levels [1] - **Corn**: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing plants [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Weak market sentiment in the short - term, be cautious and watch for changes in premium and discount quotes [1] - **Paper Pulp and Logs**: Paper pulp shows an initial bottom range, no significant bullish drivers; logs have stable fundamentals, futures oscillate [1] - **Live Hogs**: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by factors such as US inventory decline, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed rate - cut [1] - **Asphalt**: Bearish as the demand may be falsified in the 14th Five - Year Plan period and supply is sufficient [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU and BR)**: RU may be affected by typhoons and inventory reduction; BR is affected by raw - material supply and market sentiment [1] - **PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, etc.**: PTA is bearish due to supply increase and price decline; ethylene glycol is affected by new device production and inventory; short - fiber is affected by device return and market sentiment [1] - **Pure Benzene, Styrene, and Urea**: Bearish for pure benzene and styrene due to supply increase; urea has limited upside and cost - side support [1] - **LPG**: Bearish due to OPEC production increase, high domestic inventory, and Fed rate - cut [1] Others - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: May rebound from low levels as the price approaches the cost line and enters the contract - changing period [1]