期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 27 日 白糖：维持区间整理思维 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 国际市场：ISO 预计 24/25 榨季全球食糖供应短缺 547 万吨 (前值短缺 488 万吨)。UNICA 数据显示，截 至 8 月 1 日，25/26 榨季巴西中南部甘蔗累积压榨量同比下降 8.6 个百分点，累计产糖 1927 万吨（-162 万 吨），累计 MIX52.06% 同比提高 2.93 个百分点。ISMA/NFCSF 预计，25/26 榨季印度总糖产量 3490 万吨， 24/25 榨季为 2950 万吨（+540 万吨）。OCSB 数据显示，24/25 榨季泰国累计产糖 1008 万吨（+127 万吨）。 【趋势强度】 白糖趋势强度：0 ■ 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the sugar market, covering price data, macro and industry news, and production, consumption, and import forecasts in domestic and international markets [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content 1. Sugar Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 16.09 cents/pound, down 0.16 from the previous period; the mainstream spot price is 5990 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5697 yuan/ton, down 21 [1] - The 91 spread is 59 yuan/ton, down 23; the 15 spread is 64 yuan/ton, up 2; the mainstream spot basis is 293 yuan/ton, up 21 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that the sugarcane crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil has accelerated; India's monsoon precipitation is higher than the long - period average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1] 3. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of June in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 2.51 million tons (-650,000 tons) [2] 4. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously forecasted a shortage of 4.88 million tons) [3] - As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 15.66 million tons (-1.59 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, up 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [3] - In the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] 5. Sugar Trend Intensity - The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is bullish sentiment [1] Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market in the 24/25 season is expected to face a supply shortage, and the domestic market also has a supply - demand gap, but the specific situation varies by region [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 16.57 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.33; the mainstream spot price is 6,030 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10; the futures main contract price is 5,866 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 32. The 91 spread is 198 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 20; the 15 spread is 53 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2; the mainstream spot basis is 164 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 42 [1] Macro and Industry News - Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the sugarcane crushing progress in central - southern Brazil is still slow, but the MIX is significantly higher year - on - year; the monsoon precipitation in India is higher than the long - period average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7%. As of the end of June, the 24/25 season imports were 2.51 million tons (-650,000 tons) [2] International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously a shortage of 4.88 million tons). As of July 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, a 2.33 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons), and Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The price of white sugar follows the price of raw sugar [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Raw sugar price is 16.36 cents/pound, down 0.43 cents year-on-year; mainstream spot price is 6,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan year-on-year; futures main contract price is 5,839 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan year-on-year [1] - 91 spread is 169 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan year-on-year; 15 spread is 54 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan year-on-year; mainstream spot basis is 221 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan year-on-year [1] Macro and Industry News - Pakistan approves the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil is still slow, but MIX has increased significantly year-on-year; monsoon precipitation in India is higher than LPA; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year-on-year increase; China imported 420,000 tons of sugar in June [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of June in the 24/25 season, China imported 2.51 million tons of sugar (-650,000 tons) [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3] - As of July 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year-on-year, cumulative sugar production was 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), and the cumulative MIX was 51.02%, up 2.33 percentage points year-on-year [3] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, sugar production in India was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [3] - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of white sugar is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - The sugar market shows narrow - range fluctuations, with various supply - demand factors influencing both domestic and international markets [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.3 cents/pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.27; the mainstream spot price is 6060 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5817 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 7 [1] - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 178 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 3; the 15 spread is 57 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year increase of 3; the mainstream spot basis is 243 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 7 [1] Macro and Industry News - Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the sugarcane crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil is still slow, but the MIX has increased significantly year - on - year; the monsoon precipitation in India is higher than the Long - Period Average (LPA); Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May [1] Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption will be 15.9 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7%. China's sugar imports were 2.1 million tons (-1.04 million tons) [2] International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously a shortage of 4.88 million tons) [2] - As of July 1, in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production was 12.25 million tons (-2.04 million tons), with the cumulative MIX increasing by 2.33 percentage points year - on - year [2] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons), and Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, representing a neutral outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is in a consolidation period, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The raw sugar price is 16.56 cents/pound, up 0.43; the mainstream spot price is 6050 yuan/ton, up 10; the futures main - contract price is 5779 yuan/ton, up 32 [1]. - **Spreads**: The 91 spread is 173 yuan/ton, up 15; the 15 spread is 48 yuan/ton, up 3; the mainstream spot basis is 271 yuan/ton, down 22 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; Brazil's central - south MIX increased significantly year - on - year; India's monsoon precipitation was higher than LPA; Brazil exported 3.36 million tons in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May [1]. 3.3 Market Supply and Demand - **Domestic Market**: CAOC expects domestic sugar production to be 11.16 million tons in the 24/25 season, with consumption of 15.8 million tons and imports of 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7%. China imported 2.1 million tons of sugar (-1.04 million tons) [2]. - **International Market**: ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons). As of June 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - south decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 9.4 million tons (-1.61 million tons), and the cumulative MIX increased by 2.12 percentage points. As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar (-5.8 million tons), and Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar (+1.27 million tons) [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the sugar market, including price data, macro and industry news, and supply - demand forecasts for domestic and international markets [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 16.15 cents per pound, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 6040 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5747 yuan per ton, down 7 yuan year - on - year [1] - The 91 spread is 158 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan year - on - year; the 15 spread is 45 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 293 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan year - on - year [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - Pakistan has approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar; the MIX in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased significantly year - on - year; the monsoon precipitation in India is higher than the long - period average (LPA) [1] - Brazil exported 3.36 million tons of sugar in June, a 5% year - on - year increase; China imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May [1] 3. Domestic Market - CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production will be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons (+1.2 million tons), cumulative sales were 8.11 million tons (+1.52 million tons), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.7% [2] - As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China imported 2.1 million tons of sugar (-1.04 million tons) [2] 4. International Market - ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [2] - As of June 16 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 14 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production was 9.4 million tons (-1.61 million tons), with the cumulative MIX up 2.12 percentage points year - on - year [2] - As of May 15 in the 24/25 season, India's sugar production was 25.74 million tons (-5.8 million tons) [2] - In the 24/25 season, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 10.08 million tons (+1.27 million tons) [2] 5. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is "Range-bound" [1] Core Viewpoints - The sugar market shows a range-bound trend. In the international market, factors such as the US imposing reciprocal tariffs, market trading of recession expectations, low inventory in Brazil, lower-than-expected production in India, and reduced exports from Brazil and China have an impact on the market. In the domestic market, there are differences between production, consumption, and imports, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in shortfall [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 17.81 cents per pound, with a year-on-year increase of 0.09 cents; the mainstream spot price is 6,150 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan year-on-year; the futures main contract price is 5,936 yuan per ton, up 52 yuan year-on-year. The 59 spread is 172 yuan per ton, down 7 yuan year-on-year; the 15 spread is 104 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan year-on-year; the mainstream spot basis is 214 yuan per ton, down 32 yuan year-on-year [1] Macro and Industry News - High-frequency information indicates that the US imposing reciprocal tariffs, market trading of recession expectations have put pressure on raw sugar. In Brazil, with low inventory, India's production is lower than expected, and precipitation in the Brazilian production area in Q1 is low. The NFCSF has lowered India's sugar production forecast for the 24/25 season from 26.5 million tons to 25.9 million tons. Brazil exported 1.85 million tons in March, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to February have significantly declined [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects domestic sugar production of 11 million tons, consumption of 15.8 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of the end of March, the national sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.75 million tons (+1.17 million tons), cumulative sugar sales were 6 million tons (+1.26 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.8%. China imported 80,000 tons of sugar from January to February (-1.11 million tons) [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously a shortage of 2.51 million tons). As of March 31, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil in the 24/25 season decreased by 4.98 percentage points year-on-year, with cumulative sugar production of 40.17 million tons (-2.25 million tons), and the cumulative MIX decreased by 0.82 percentage points year-on-year. As of March 31, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 24.85 million tons (-5.4 million tons). As of April 1, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.04 million tons (+1.3 million tons) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The connection between domestic and international sugar markets is strengthening. Factors such as low inventories in Brazil, lower - than - expected production in India, and low precipitation in the Brazilian production area in Q1 are influencing the sugar market. The global sugar supply is expected to face a larger shortage in the 24/25 season, and the domestic sugar market is closely following the international market [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Spread Data**: The current price of raw sugar is 19.59 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.24. The mainstream spot price is 6240 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan year - on - year, and the futures main contract price is 6161 yuan per ton, up 32 yuan year - on - year. The 59 spread is 105 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan year - on - year, the 15 spread is 104 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan year - on - year, and the mainstream spot basis is 79 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: In the context of low inventories in Brazil, lower - than - expected production in India, and low precipitation in the Brazilian production area in Q1, attention should be paid to the structural market of the raw sugar May contract. The NFCSF has lowered India's sugar production forecast for the 24/25 season from 2650 million tons to 2590 million tons. Brazil exported 183 million tons in February, a year - on - year decrease of 39.4%. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to February have decreased significantly, and the domestic market is more closely following the international raw sugar market [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 1100 million tons, consumption will be 1580 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. As of the end of February, the national sugar production in the 24/25 season was 972 million tons (+177 million tons), the cumulative sugar sales were 475 million tons (+97 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 48.9%. China imported 8 million tons of sugar from January to February (-111 million tons) [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Global Supply Shortage**: ISO predicts that the global sugar supply will be in a shortage of 488 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously a shortage of 251 million tons). As of March 16, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 24/25 season decreased by 4.94 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 3998 million tons (-226 million tons), and the cumulative MIX decreased by 0.87 percentage points year - on - year. As of March 31, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 2485 million tons (-540 million tons). As of March 23, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 998 million tons (+127 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 1, with the value range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3].