商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 泰国印度产量预期受到季风雨提振，白糖短期承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-26 棉花：由于美国施加的关税影响，棉花进口量未达到预期。自播种以来， 全国棉区的光照和温度总体适宜，有利于棉花的生长。目前，新疆大部分地 区的棉花已进入现蕾期，而黄河和长江流域的棉花则处于第五真叶至现蕾 期。大多数棉花的发育期比往年提前了 3 到 15 天，后续需要持续关注天气 对单产的影响。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美棉疲软，郑棉短期承压 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限，全球食糖供给趋于宽松，国际糖价 呈现弱势运行。后续需密切关注主要产国的降水情 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Shock" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the 2024/25 sugar production has ended successfully, with China's cumulative sugar production reaching 11.16 million tons as of the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 million tons, and cumulative sugar sales reaching 8.11 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.52 million tons. The sales progress is 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The precipitation in Guangxi and Yunnan since May has been beneficial to sugarcane growth, and the growth of beets in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is also good. Internationally, India is expected to increase sugar production in the 2025/26 season, and the global sugar supply is expected to be loose, leading to a weak international sugar price. Attention should be paid to precipitation in major producing countries and Brazil's sugar production and export progress [1] - For cotton, due to US tariffs, cotton imports have not met expectations. The overall light and temperature conditions in the national cotton-growing areas since sowing are suitable for growth. Most cotton development periods are 3 - 15 days earlier than usual, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on yield per unit [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Data Tables 1. Price Changes - From June 16 to 17, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 3.35% to $16.45, and the price of US cotton decreased by 0.60% to $67.64. The spot price of sugar in Nanning increased by 0.17% to 6030 yuan, and in Kunming it increased by 0.51% to 5865 yuan. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.28% to 3280, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 0.68% to 14700 yuan [3] 2. Spread Changes - From June 16 to 17, 2025, the spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and SR09 - 01 for sugar all increased, with increases of 12.50%, 8.33%, and 7.03% respectively. The spreads of CF01 - 05, CF05 - 09, and CF09 - 01 for cotton changed to -5, 10, and -5 respectively [3] 3. Basis Changes - From June 16 to 17, 2025, the basis of sugar contracts 01, 05, and 09 increased by 5.07%, 5.95%, and 3.57% respectively, and the basis of cotton contracts 01, 05, and 09 increased by 3.26%, 2.87%, and 3.64% respectively [3] 4. Import Price and Profit Changes - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at $78.15 from June 16 to 17, 2025, and the import profit of sugar also remained unchanged at 1663 yuan [3] 5. Option Information - The implied volatility of SR509C5700 is 0.0874, and the historical volatility of its underlying futures SR509 is 8.58. The implied volatility of SR509P5700 is 0.0772. The implied volatility of CF509C13600 is 0.0939, and the historical volatility of its underlying futures CF509 is 12.63. The implied volatility of CF509P13600 is 0.0961 [3] 6. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From June 16 to 17, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 28586, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.40% to 10682 [3] Group 4: Company Introduction -信达期货有限公司 is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It has various memberships in multiple domestic futures exchanges and is an observer of relevant associations [9]