饮料第二成长曲线
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华润饮料(02460.HK):业绩阶段性承压 看好饮料第二成长曲线
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-09 21:47
综合来看,25H1 公司净利率为13.3%,同比-1.9pct。 包装水是人们日常生活中的刚需产品,随着我国居民健康意识提升,中大规格瓶装水及桶装水在家庭和 户外出行等场景中的使用逐渐增加,小规格瓶装水凭借其灵活的优势,在体育运动等场景中也获得更加 广泛使用。据欧睿统计,24 年我国瓶装水市场规模(RSP)为2450亿元,16-24 年复合增速约为5.7%, 预计25 年市场规模可达2517 亿元,同比+2.75%。公司作为包装水行业龙头,旗下怡宝是饮用纯净水头 部品牌之一,有望受益行业扩容。 包装饮用水整体承压,饮料端增速亮眼 公司25H1 实现营业收入62.06 亿元,同比-18.52%;实现归母净利润8.05 亿元,同比-28.63%;实现扣非 归母净利润7.69 亿元,同比-31.56%。分产品看,25H1 包装饮用水/饮料分别实现营收52.5/9.6 亿元,同 比-23.1%/+21.28%。其中,小规格瓶装水/中大规格瓶装水/桶装水分别实现营收31.9/18.3/2.3 亿元,同 比-26.2%/-19.4%/-1.5%。 上半年包装饮用水行业竞争加剧,叠加公司库存、渠道优化,小规格、中大规格瓶装 ...
华润饮料(02460):业绩阶段性承压,看好饮料第二成长曲线
Guotou Securities· 2025-12-09 07:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 13.86 CNY over the next six months [7][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the bottled water market in China is expected to grow steadily, with a projected market size of 251.7 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [1]. - The company has faced short-term performance pressure due to intensified competition in the bottled water sector, but it is well-positioned to benefit from long-term demand stability in essential products like packaged water [4]. - The beverage segment is seen as a second growth curve for the company, with a 21.28% increase in revenue from beverages in the first half of 2025 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.206 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.52% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.805 billion CNY, down 28.63% [2]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 46.7%, a decline of 2.6 percentage points compared to the previous year, primarily due to revenue decline and a shift in sales structure towards lower-margin beverage products [3]. - The company plans to enhance production efficiency by establishing two new factories, with one expected to commence operations in Q4 2025 [4]. Market and Competitive Landscape - The bottled water industry is experiencing increased competition, leading to significant revenue declines in small and medium-sized bottled water segments [2]. - The company has launched 14 new beverage SKUs in the first half of 2025, contributing to a revenue share increase to 15.4% from the beverage segment [2]. - The company is leveraging its brand recognition through partnerships with international sports events, enhancing its market presence [2]. Future Projections - Revenue growth projections for the company are -11.97% in 2025, followed by 6.61% in 2026 and 8.64% in 2027 [9]. - Net profit growth is expected to be -7.10% in 2025, with subsequent increases of 9.32% in 2026 and 5.49% in 2027 [9].