管理焕新，否极泰来可期 华润饮料(2460) 华润饮料（2460）更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 10.47 | | 徐洋(分析师) | 021-38032032 | xuyang6@gtht.com | S0880520120008 | | | 本报告导读： 在管理改善的背景下，公司向内提效率，向外扩渠道、扩品类，中长期超额收益可 期。 投资要点： 风险提示：行业竞争加剧；成长异常上行；食品安全风险 | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，维持华润饮料(02460)"增持"评级，给予目标价12.45元人民币。公司管理层 焕新，高立先生履新，其财务及跨领域管理经验将有力推动渠道精细化和降本增效改革。包装水业务渠 道调整逐步到位，饮料新品凭借"怡宝"健康运动概念持续放量，内部通过提升自产率、优化物流及营销 效率，盈利能力有望持续改善。 国泰海通证券主要观点如下： 管理焕新 2025年起受累于渠道库存阶段性偏高以及渠道管理粗放等历史遗留问题影响，公司开启针对渠道端的改 革，一方面加大费用投放力度缓解渠道库存压力，另一方面逐步拆大商为小商、同时招募特渠、饮品经 销商，以提升经销商团队的专业性，展望2026年，在渠道问题逐步解决的背景下，该行看好包装水主业 轻装上阵、焕发新机;饮料业务板块方面，至本清润系列草本饮料持续放量，"魔力"运动饮料、"佐味茶 事"无糖茶随着产品的升级迭代蓄势待发，考虑到"怡宝"主品牌所传递的运动、健康概念与草本饮料、 运动饮料及无糖茶潜在用户的诉求相适配，该行看好公司饮料业务持续放量，逐步成长为第二增长引 擎。 向内提效率，盈利能力逐步改善 公司"生产、营销、运营"三大中心改造有条不紊的推进，其中自产率持 ...

智通财经APP获悉，太平洋证券发布研报称，预计华润饮料(02460)2025-2027年营业收入分别为 114.7/122.4/131.2亿元，同比增长-15%/+7%/+7%，归母净利润分别为12.8/14.1/15.5亿元，同比增 长-22%/+11%/+10%，对应PE为20X/18X/16X，给予增持评级。 太平洋证券主要观点如下： 纯净水行业龙头，立足华南迈向全国，饮料业务加速布局 华润饮料起步于华南，历经40多年发展已成为国内第二大包装水企业，市场份额达18.4%。2021-2024年 公司营业收入从113.40增长至135.21亿元，CAGR达6.04%，净利润从8.58增长至16.61亿元，CAGR达 24.63%，毛利率提升&销售费用率下行带动利润弹性凸显。公司收入结构以包装饮用水为主，2025H1 占比84.6%，近几年公司饮料业务加速布局增长亮眼，占比从2021年的4.6%提升至2025H1的15.4%。 包装水行业需求稳健，品牌&渠道基础扎实，全国化空间广阔 根据欧睿数据显示，中国包装水市场规模由2010年的509亿元提升至2024年的2199亿元，CAGR达到 11.02%，健康、安 ...

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at China Resources Beverage, with Gao Li taking over as chairman, comes at a critical time as the company faces performance pressures and intensified industry competition [2][3]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Gao Li, a veteran of the China Resources Group, has been appointed as the new chairman, succeeding Zhang Weitong, who stepped down due to work adjustments [2]. - Gao Li has a strong financial background, having served as the financial director of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 and as the general manager of the finance department of China Resources Group since January 2025 [2]. Group 2: Performance Challenges - China Resources Beverage's revenue growth has stagnated, with a reported revenue of 13.52 billion yuan in the year of its IPO, reflecting only a 0.05% increase, while profit growth of 23.12% was primarily due to cost control [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company experienced a decline in both revenue and profit, with revenue dropping to 6.206 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.52%, and net profit falling to 808 million yuan, down 28.63% [4]. Group 3: Market Competition - The bottled water market has seen significant changes, with competitors like Wahaha and Nongfu Spring impacting China Resources Beverage's sales, particularly in the small-sized bottled water segment [5]. - In the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring's bottled water revenue grew by 10.7% to 9.443 billion yuan, while China Resources Beverage's revenue in the same segment fell by 23.1% to 5.251 billion yuan [6]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - To diversify its revenue streams, China Resources Beverage has been actively launching new products in tea, juice, and sports drinks, introducing 14 new SKUs in the first half of the previous year [7]. - Despite these efforts, non-water beverage revenue only accounted for approximately 15.4% of total revenue, indicating that the second growth curve has not yet materialized [7]. Group 5: Market Position and Valuation - China Resources Beverage's revenue has remained stagnant around 13.5 billion yuan in 2023 and 2024, with expectations that its total revenue for 2025 will likely be surpassed by competitors like Dongpeng Beverage and Yuanqi Forest [7]. - As of January 19, 2026, the company's stock price had dropped to 10.32 HKD, a decline of 29% from its one-year high and over 38% from its IPO closing price, resulting in a market capitalization of 24.749 billion HKD, down 36.8% from its IPO value [8].

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at China Resources Beverage comes at a critical time as the company faces declining performance and increased competition in the beverage industry [1][3]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Zhang Weitong has stepped down as Chairman of China Resources Beverage due to work adjustments, with Gao Li taking over for a three-year term [1]. - Gao Li has a strong financial background and has previously held key positions within the China Resources Group, including serving as the CFO of China Resources Beverage from 2012 to 2020 [1]. Group 2: Performance Challenges - In 2024, China Resources Beverage's revenue growth stagnated, with total revenue at 13.521 billion yuan, reflecting a mere 0.05% increase, while net profit grew by 23.12% mainly due to cost control [3]. - By the first half of 2025, the company experienced a decline in both revenue and profit, with operating income at 6.206 billion yuan, down 18.52% year-on-year, and net profit at 0.805 billion yuan, down 28.63% [3]. - The core packaged water business, which accounts for nearly 90% of revenue, has seen significant declines, particularly in the sales of its flagship product, Yibao [3][5]. Group 3: Market Competition - The competitive landscape in the packaged drinking water market has shifted, with Wahaha regaining market presence and Nongfu Spring launching a low-priced product that negatively impacted Yibao's sales [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Nongfu Spring's revenue from packaged drinking water reached 9.443 billion yuan, a 10.7% increase, while China Resources Beverage's water segment revenue fell to 5.251 billion yuan, a 23.1% decline [5]. Group 4: Growth Strategy - China Resources Beverage has been criticized for its reliance on a single product line and has attempted to diversify by launching new products in tea, juice, and sports drinks [6]. - In the first half of 2025, non-water beverage revenue was 0.955 billion yuan, a 21.3% increase, but still only accounted for about 15.4% of total revenue, indicating that a second growth curve has not yet materialized [6]. Group 5: Market Position and Valuation - Competitors like Dongpeng Beverage and Yuanqi Forest are expected to surpass China Resources Beverage in revenue, with Dongpeng projected to exceed 20 billion yuan and Yuanqi Forest anticipating a 26% growth [8]. - China Resources Beverage's stock price has declined significantly, with a closing price of 10.32 HKD on January 19, 2026, down 29% from its peak and over 38% from its IPO price, leading to a market capitalization decrease of 36.8% from its initial value [8].

Core Insights - The beverage industry is shifting from merely quenching thirst to emphasizing health attributes, with this trend expected to be more pronounced by 2025 [1] - Reports indicate that low-sugar and no-sugar options will become standard in the beverage market by 2025, reflecting a clear trend towards health-conscious consumption [1] - The industry is experiencing a bifurcation, with some companies capitalizing on market trends for growth while others face declining performance [1] Industry Performance - In November 2025, China's beverage production reached 10.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with a cumulative production of 165.61 million tons from January to November, reflecting a 3.3% growth [2] - Eastroc Beverage reported impressive performance with a revenue of 16.844 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 34.13% increase year-on-year, while Nongfu Spring achieved a revenue of 25.622 billion yuan, up 15.6% [2] - Conversely, traditional giants like Master Kong faced challenges, with a revenue decline of 2.7% in the first half of 2025 [2] Segment Analysis - Sales of tea beverages fell by 6.3% to 10.67 billion yuan, fruit juice sales dropped by 13.0% to 2.956 billion yuan, and packaged water sales decreased by 6.0% to 2.377 billion yuan [3] - Carbonated and other beverages saw a growth of 6.3%, reaching 10.256 billion yuan [3] - The plant-based protein drink segment struggled, with leading brands like Yangyuan and Chengde Lulux experiencing revenue declines of 7.64% and 9.42%, respectively [3] Competitive Landscape - Companies are adjusting to revenue declines, with some experiencing double-digit drops; for instance, China Resources Beverage's revenue fell by 18.5% to 6.206 billion yuan [4] - The competitive landscape is marked by price wars, particularly in the packaged water segment, leading to significant revenue drops for brands like "Yibao" [4] - Analysts suggest that the success of Nongfu Spring's tea segment indicates a shift from basic hydration to quality tea beverages, while traditional companies must innovate to escape the price war trap [4] Emerging Trends - The rise of functional beverages is evident, with products tailored for specific scenarios, such as sports and fitness, gaining traction [7] - Brands are focusing on packaging innovations and marketing strategies that align with health and fitness trends, such as electrolyte water and convenient single-use formats [7][8] - The health and wellness segment is seeing explosive growth, with numerous new brands entering the market, particularly in traditional Chinese health drinks [6] Leadership Transition - The beverage industry is witnessing a generational shift, with new leaders taking over established companies, such as Wei Hongcheng at Master Kong and Xu Yangyang at Dali Foods [9][10] - These new leaders bring fresh perspectives and experiences, which may help navigate the challenges of a saturated market [11] - However, not all transitions are smooth, as seen in the ongoing succession issues at Wahaha, highlighting the complexities of generational change in the industry [11]

Group 1 - The company announced the resignation of Mr. Zhang Weitong as Executive Director, Chairman of the Board, and Chairman of the Nomination Committee, with Mr. Gao Li appointed as the new Executive Director, Chairman, and Chairman of the Nomination Committee [1] - Mr. Gao Li has extensive experience in various sectors, having joined the China Resources Group in 2007 and worked in multiple subsidiaries, including China Resources Beverage and China Resources Power, with nearly 10 years at China Resources Beverage and serving as CFO from 2012 to 2020 [1] - The company emphasizes a multi-brand and multi-water type development strategy in its packaged water segment, focusing on brands like Yibao and Benyou, while also launching 14 new SKUs in the beverage segment in H1 2025, including tea, juice, and other drinks [1] Group 2 - Short-term performance is expected to be under pressure due to intensified competition in the packaged water and beverage industry, along with proactive channel reform efforts [2] - In the long term, water remains a necessity that can withstand economic cycles, and the company has a clear advantage from years of deep cultivation in the market, with revenue expected to return to growth [2] - The company anticipates an increase in profit margins due to a higher proportion of self-produced products and a decrease in outsourcing, with new management expected to lead the company back to a growth trajectory [2]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" from "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term pressure on performance due to intensified competition in the packaged water and beverage industry, alongside proactive channel reform efforts. However, the long-term profit and dividend growth logic remains clear, with the company poised to return to a growth trajectory under the leadership of the new management team [2] - The company has a well-established dual-driver strategy focusing on both packaged water and beverages, with a diverse product matrix that includes multiple brands and types of water, as well as new product launches in tea, juice, and other beverage categories [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to be 13,515 million RMB in 2023, with a growth rate of 7.1%. However, it is expected to decline to 11,094 million RMB in 2025, reflecting an 18.0% decrease. Revenue is anticipated to recover to 12,754 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 7.6% and 6.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1,329 million RMB in 2023, with a significant drop of 42.4% to 942 million RMB in 2025. It is expected to rebound to 1,336 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 20.7% and 17.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.55 RMB in 2023, decreasing to 0.39 RMB in 2025, and recovering to 0.56 RMB by 2027 [3][8] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 19.3% in 2023 to 7.7% in 2025, before gradually increasing to 9.2% by 2027 [3][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 16.6 in 2023, increasing to 23.4 in 2025, and then decreasing to 16.5 by 2027 [3][8]

Core Viewpoint - The partnership between China National Team and China Resources Beverage continues, focusing on providing health drinks to over 70 teams, including basketball, volleyball, table tennis, badminton, and football, aiming to enhance performance in both domestic and international competitions [1] Group 1: Partnership Details - China Resources Beverage remains the official partner of the China National Team, having first partnered in 2019 [1] - The collaboration emphasizes a deep resonance between product attributes and the spirit of Chinese sports, highlighting a commitment to quality and innovation [1] Group 2: Strategic Goals - Both parties aim to explore a path for national brands to support the strategy of building a strong sports nation and promoting a healthy China [1] - The partnership integrates the professional needs of the national teams with the trends of consumer upgrades in the sports health sector [1] Group 3: Product Innovation - China Resources Beverage will leverage its diverse brand portfolio, including "Yibao" and "Moli," to create a comprehensive service system covering training, event support, and health management [1]

Group 1 - The core partnership between China National Team and China Resources Beverage continues, providing high-quality health drinks to over 70 national teams, including basketball, volleyball, table tennis, badminton, and football [2][3] - The collaboration aims to promote the integration of national fitness and health, contributing to the construction of a strong sports nation and a healthy China [2][3] - China Resources Beverage has been the first official partner of the China National Team since 2019, reflecting a deep resonance from product attributes to the spirit of sports [3][4] Group 2 - In the previous cooperation cycle, China Resources Beverage supplied 65 million bottles of high-quality drinks, covering 22 provinces, 4 autonomous regions, 4 municipalities, and 2 special administrative regions, as well as international locations like Tokyo and Paris [5] - The company combines the professional needs of the national teams with trends in consumer upgrades, focusing on the sports health sector through its diverse brand matrix [5] - Social responsibility initiatives included activities like the "Olympic Athletes Public Service Campaign" and "Champion Sports Classroom," benefiting over one million youth and sports enthusiasts [6]