Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley and experts from Meilian Group believe that Hong Kong's housing prices may have bottomed out due to limited supply, declining mortgage rates, and increased contributions from mainland buyers [1] Demand Aspects - In the first half of 2025, overall transaction volume (both new and second-hand units) increased by 3.9% year-on-year, reaching 29,000 units, driven by the decline in Hibor since May 2025, competitive pricing strategies from developers, and increased contributions from mainland buyers [2] - The relaxation of stamp duty in the 2025/26 budget (only HKD 100) led to a 305% year-on-year surge in sales of properties priced at HKD 10 million and below in the first half of 2025 [2] - The mass market is expected to continue outperforming the luxury market, with Meilian forecasting 18,000 sales of new units in 2025, a 6% year-on-year increase [2] Supply Improvement - Potential supply has peaked, with limited land supply and a decrease in new project completions, indicating the market may enter an upward cycle [3] - In the first five months, completed inventory accounted for over 55% of total sales of new units, compared to approximately 40% in the 2023/24 fiscal year, prompting developers to clear inventory [3] - The discount on new unit prices has narrowed from 12% to 9%, indicating improved demand [3] - The absorption rate for new units improved to 64% in the first half of 2025, compared to 57% in 2024 and 50% in 2023 [3] Price Trends - Housing prices may have stabilized in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 1%, which is less than expected, aligning with Morgan Stanley's positive outlook [4] - Meilian expects housing prices to rise by 3% in 2025, while Morgan Stanley estimates a 2% increase for the second half of the year, with catalysts potentially emerging when supply drops below 90,000 units [4] Rental Trends - The rental market remains positive, supported by an influx of talent and students from mainland China coming to Hong Kong [5] - Local demand has been suppressed in the past 2-3 years due to rising mortgage rates and falling housing prices, but this trend may change as local residents may shift from renting to buying [5] - Meilian forecasts a 6% year-on-year increase in rental prices for 2025, with a 1.2% increase in the first half of 2025 [5]