全球降息周期明确，美元降息将直接降低香港按揭成本，显著提升买房可负担性。目前租售比处于10年 高位，低息环境进一步强化物业投资属性，有效刺激换房需求入市，成为楼价上涨的关键催化剂。 另外，私人住宅新增供应持续收紧，市场去库存化节奏加快，供需关系已从宽松转向平衡，为楼价上行 提供强劲支撑。 在上述三大核心因素共振下，郭子威将楼市价格涨幅预期由5%上调至5%至10%。 智通财经APP获悉，长实营业部首席经理郭子威对香港楼市持明确乐观态度。他表示，总体而言，今年 香港楼市将进入明确上升周期，新盘及次新屋苑将领涨市场。 郭子威提到，香港经济增长动能巩固，股市与楼市形成正向循环，高净值人士置业需求持续释放；内地 人才政策红利带动内地买家入市，加上"供平过租"效应，租转买需求大量涌现，为楼市奠定坚实需求基 础。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a positive shift due to reasonable property prices, declining mortgage rates, and rising rental income, leading to optimistic price expectations [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mainland buyers are significantly contributing to the market, with reports of properties being purchased for around 2.5 million HKD, yielding rental returns exceeding 4% [2]. - New property projects are seeing overwhelming demand, with some projects receiving over 1,200 applications for just 63 units, indicating a subscription rate of 18 times [2]. - The number of mainland buyers entering the market has increased for two consecutive quarters, with a nearly 7% rise in transactions from Q2 to Q3 this year [3]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Factors - The reduction of property taxes and lower mortgage rates due to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts are stimulating demand in the Hong Kong real estate market [4]. - The total property registration volume in Hong Kong has surpassed 70,000 for the first time since 2021, with a year-to-date registration amount reaching 536.83 billion HKD, exceeding last year's total [4]. - The influx of capital into Hong Kong, particularly in the IPO market, is driving demand for real estate as international financial institutions expand their presence [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the current upward trend in the Hong Kong real estate market could last for six years, from 2025 to 2031, as the market is expected to recover from its low point [6]. - Major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, anticipate a recovery in the Hong Kong property market post-2025, entering a new upward cycle [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a resurgence, driven by reasonable property prices, declining mortgage rates, and rising rental income, leading to positive price expectations [2][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in the cost-effectiveness of renting versus buying has changed, with many buyers transitioning from renting to purchasing properties due to favorable conditions [2][3]. - Recent sales data indicates a strong demand for new properties, with significant oversubscription in several projects, such as New World Development's Yau Ma Tei project receiving over 1,200 applications for 63 units, an oversubscription rate of 18 times [4][6]. - The overall property registration volume in Hong Kong has reached 70,245 transactions this year, a 3.3% increase compared to last year's total of 67,979 [9]. Group 2: Buyer Demographics - Mainland buyers are playing a crucial role in the market, with a 7% increase in transactions from Mandarin-speaking buyers in Q3, totaling 3,797 transactions [6]. - The appeal of Hong Kong real estate is attributed to its investment value, identity symbolism, educational resources, and asset protection features, which continue to attract mainland clients [6][9]. Group 3: Economic Influences - The easing of property taxes and lower mortgage rates, influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, have reduced the financial burden on buyers, stimulating demand [9][11]. - Analysts predict that the current upward trend in the Hong Kong real estate market could last for six years, from 2025 to 2031, as major financial institutions anticipate a recovery post-2025 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Praveen Choudhary, suggest that Hong Kong property prices are likely to rebound from a bottom due to an influx of mainland buyers, improvements in capital markets, and recent interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The influx of mainland buyers is boosting the Hong Kong residential market [1] - Rental yields in Hong Kong have now surpassed those in major mainland cities, stimulating investment demand [1] - The recovery in capital markets is creating a wealth effect that further supports housing demand [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts believe that the current phase may still be early, but there are several optimistic indicators suggesting the beginning of an upward cycle [1] - This upward cycle is expected to last for four to five years [1] - Lower interest rates are also expected to support the market [1]