房价从高峰期跌落，跌了3年多之后，从今年5月份开始，香港房价进入了反弹阶段，价格指数连涨4个月。 这个世界上，没有永远的涨，也没有永远的跌。 说的是，最近的香港楼市。 而目前，市场信心恢复也很明显，最典型的就是二手收紧议价空间，业主开始惜售了。 同时，不少的行业大佬都跳出来预测：房价进入U型反弹期，明年房价要继续涨。 那么，香港的房价，真的要进入新的上涨周期吗？ 现在，是不是抄底入场的机会？ 我们先按下不表，把周期拉长一点看看。 香港楼市近40多年 "起起落落起起"的房价 来看一张图： 1984年-2025年9月份，近40年间的香港的房价走势。 起起落落起起，比坐过山车还惊险。 但总体来说，可以分为几个阶段： 第一个阶段：1997年回归前，房价"疯涨"周期。 从1984年三季度的低位，房价指数16.7，到1997年三季度峰值期的169.5，13年间房价涨超9倍，十分惊人！ 第二个阶段，1997-2003年，房价大跌周期。 受97年金融危机波动，以及港府「八万五」建屋计划风声，香港房价进入下跌周期。 6年间房价下跌69%，一度出现10.5万房产沦为负资产，2003年受SARS影响，香港房价在一年内跌超10%。 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly from mainland Chinese buyers, with some properties seeing a low success rate of only 2.5% in lottery draws for new developments [4][5] - Mainland students and parents are increasingly purchasing properties in Hong Kong, viewing it as a long-term investment and a means to secure residency [5][6] - High-profile individuals and companies are also investing in Hong Kong real estate, indicating renewed confidence in the market [8][12] Group 1: Mainland Buyers' Trends - A significant number of mainland Chinese individuals have purchased properties in Hong Kong over the past decade, with approximately 67,813 buyers spending a total of 802.2 billion yuan [10] - The trend of mainland buyers is expected to continue, especially after the "撤辣" policy in 2024, which may lead to record-high purchases [11] - In the first nine months of 2024, mainland buyers registered over 12,000 transactions in Hong Kong, with a total value of 94.1 billion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in the market [12] Group 2: Investment Motivations - Buyers are motivated by the potential for rental income, with some properties offering rental yields of 3% to 3.5% [6][11] - The average purchase price for properties by mainland buyers has decreased significantly, with a 31.5% drop from 1.384 million yuan in 2018 to 948,600 yuan in 2024, suggesting that buyers are capitalizing on lower prices [12] - Notable transactions include a mainland executive purchasing a 59.44 square meter property for approximately 14.88 million yuan, emphasizing the trend of investing in real estate for future use or rental [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is steadily recovering due to a series of stimulus policies, with both residential and office markets showing signs of improvement driven by increased buyer activity from mainland China and structural changes from population and capital inflows [1]. Residential Market - The "Midland Property Price Index" has risen for six consecutive weeks, reaching 131.99 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.79%, marking the largest weekly increase in 1.5 years, with a cumulative increase of 3.01% this year [2]. - The "Midland Confidence Index," reflecting owners' listing attitudes, stands at 77.3 points, remaining above the average for 46 weeks, with a projected price increase of 2% for the current quarter [2]. - The private residential price index has increased for five consecutive months, indicating a recovery phase from low levels [2]. - The total number of residential sale agreements in the third quarter reached approximately 16,700, a year-on-year increase of 63%, with monthly transactions maintaining above 5,000 since March [2]. Factors Influencing Market Recovery - Factors contributing to the rise in Hong Kong property prices include lower mortgage rates, a rebound from previous price declines, and positive market sentiment regarding economic recovery [3]. - High rental yields are a key attraction for mainland buyers considering property investments in Hong Kong [3]. Office Market - The influx of population and capital is creating structural changes in the Hong Kong real estate market, with increased interest from mainland buyers across various price segments, including luxury properties priced over HKD 20 million [4]. - The number of transactions by buyers registered in Mandarin has increased for two consecutive quarters, with 3,797 transactions recorded in the third quarter, a nearly 7% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - The recent acquisition of a commercial office building by Alibaba Group and Ant Group for nearly HKD 7.2 billion marks the largest office transaction in Hong Kong since 2021, expected to be completed by the end of December [4]. Developer Strategies - Local developers are adopting new marketing strategies targeting mainland tech companies looking to establish offices in Hong Kong, capitalizing on the city's status as a major financial hub [5].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a steady recovery driven by a series of stimulus policies, with both residential and office markets showing signs of improvement [1] - Recent data indicates that the Hong Kong property market has seen a "volume and price increase," with active participation from buyers from mainland China [1] - The latest statistics from Midland Realty show that the Midland Property Price Index has risen for six consecutive weeks, reaching 131.99 points, a 0.79% increase from the previous week, marking the largest weekly increase in 1.5 years [2] Group 2 - The Hong Kong residential market has shown a continuous upward trend, with the private residential price index rising for five consecutive months, indicating a recovery from low levels [2] - The total number of residential sale agreements in the third quarter reached approximately 16,700, a year-on-year increase of 63%, with monthly transactions maintaining above 5,000 since March [2] - Factors contributing to the rise in property prices include lower mortgage rates, a rebound from previous price declines, and positive market sentiment regarding economic recovery [3] Group 3 - The influx of population and capital into Hong Kong is creating structural changes in the property market, with an increasing number of buyers interested in high-end properties priced over HKD 20 million [4] - The number of buyers registering under Mandarin pinyin has increased for two consecutive quarters, with 3,797 transactions recorded in the third quarter, a nearly 7% increase from the second quarter [4] - The recent acquisition of a commercial property by Alibaba and Ant Group for nearly HKD 7.2 billion marks the largest office transaction in Hong Kong since 2021, indicating a potential recovery in the office market [4] Group 4 - Developers are adapting their marketing strategies to target mainland tech companies looking to establish offices in Hong Kong, as the city remains a key financial hub for businesses [5] - The ongoing optimization of talent and investment policies in Hong Kong is attracting more mainland enterprises to set up operations in the region [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is steadily recovering under a series of stimulus policies, with both residential and office markets showing signs of improvement due to structural changes driven by population and capital inflows [1]. Residential Market - The "Midland Property Price Index" has risen for six consecutive weeks, reaching 131.99 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.79%, marking the largest single-week increase in nearly a year and a half, with a cumulative increase of 3.01% this year [3]. - The "Midland Confidence Index," reflecting sellers' attitudes, stands at 77.3 points, remaining above the average for 46 consecutive weeks, with a projected price increase of 2% for the current quarter [3]. - The private residential price index has increased for five consecutive months, indicating a recovery from low levels [3]. - The total number of residential transactions in the third quarter reached approximately 16,700, a year-on-year increase of 63%, with monthly transactions maintaining above 5,000 since March [3]. - Factors contributing to the price rebound include lower mortgage rates, a "super rebound" after previous declines, and positive market sentiment regarding economic recovery [3][5]. Office Market - The office market has seen significant transactions, including Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a commercial building for nearly 7.2 billion HKD, marking the largest office transaction since 2021 [4][6]. - Despite the overall office market not fully reversing its downturn, large transactions indicate structural vitality during market adjustments [6]. Buyer Demographics - There is an increasing presence of mainland buyers across various price segments in the Hong Kong residential market, with a notable rise in inquiries for luxury properties priced above 20 million HKD [5]. - The number of buyers registering in Mandarin has increased for two consecutive quarters, with 3,797 transactions recorded in the third quarter, a nearly 7% increase from the previous quarter [6]. - Factors attracting mainland buyers include investment value, identity symbolism, educational resources, and asset hedging functions, alongside relaxed entry requirements for non-local buyers [6].

Group 1 - The Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL) reached 140.25 points, a week-on-week increase of 0.62%, marking a 59-week high since early August 2024 [1] - The CCL has risen for three consecutive weeks, totaling a 2.30% increase, driven by positive market sentiment following hints of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The CCL Mass index reported 141.88 points, up 0.18% week-on-week, achieving a 64-week high since late June 2024 [2] Group 2 - The CCL for small units reached 140.51 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.44%, also a 63-week high since early July 2024 [2] - The CCL for large units reported 138.90 points, up 1.59% week-on-week, marking a 21-week high since late April 2025 [2] - The CCL Mass index for Kowloon was at 139.63 points, up 0.65% week-on-week, the second highest this year [3] Group 3 - The CCL Mass index for Hong Kong Island reached 140.75 points, with a cumulative increase of 2.89% over two weeks, ranking as the fourth highest this year [3] - The New Territories East CCL Mass index reported 153.64 points, down 0.12% week-on-week, with a cumulative decline of 0.63% over two weeks [3] - The overall CCL has accumulated a 1.90% increase for 2025, with specific increases in various regions, including 4.35% in Kowloon and 3.54% in New Territories East [3]

Core Insights - The surge in property purchases by mainland Chinese buyers in Hong Kong has reached a ten-year high, with 2.4 out of every 10 properties sold going to these buyers [1] - In the first half of the year, mainland buyers spent 55.9 billion HKD on over 7,500 properties, averaging nearly 10 million HKD per unit [1] - The majority of purchases (93%) are for properties priced below 20 million HKD, indicating a focus on affordable housing rather than luxury real estate [1] Market Dynamics - The easing of property market policies in Hong Kong in 2023, including the removal of additional stamp duties, has significantly boosted interest from mainland buyers [2] - Real estate agents report a shift in client inquiries, with buyers prioritizing cross-border mortgage options over traditional concerns like location and school districts [2] - The influx of mainland buyers has sparked mixed reactions among local residents, with some expressing concerns over rising property prices while others welcome the renewed activity in the market [2] Cultural Context - The phenomenon has led to humorous observations from locals, such as the impact on supermarket supplies and the blending of property viewings with shopping trips for local goods [2] - The motivations for purchasing vary, with some buyers attracted to Hong Kong's education and healthcare systems, while others appreciate the convenience of cross-border commuting [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market is expected to see a 2% increase in prices in the third quarter of 2023, with both rental and property prices rising simultaneously for the first time in four years [1] Group 1: Property Prices - The "Mei Lun Property Index" surpassed the end of last year's figures in late July, indicating a shift from decline to growth in property prices [1] - Factors driving the increase in property prices include low interest rates, a rising stock market, and a reduction in supply [1] - The market sentiment among buyers has become more positive, contributing to the recovery in property prices [1] Group 2: Rental Market - Rental prices in Hong Kong have continued to break previous highs and are expected to rise alongside property prices [1] - The demand for rental properties remains strong, further fueling the upward trend in both rental and property prices [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company anticipates that both rental and property prices will record increases for the entirety of 2023, marking a significant recovery in the market [1] - The expected 2% increase in property prices for the third quarter represents the highest level seen since the first quarter of 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests that Hong Kong property prices are expected to decline further, and it advises against purchasing property at this time [1]. Group 1: Property Market Trends - The current interest rates are low, below 2%, making it a more favorable time for potential buyers compared to previous periods when rates were high [4]. - The property price trends in Hong Kong and mainland China are now aligned, indicating that significant appreciation in property values is unlikely [7]. Group 2: Property Purchase Considerations - The preferred area for property purchase is Hong Kong Island, as it is considered the true representation of Hong Kong, with convenient access to the airport express [5]. - There is a preference for newer buildings over older ones due to better living conditions, although older buildings are still acceptable if the buyer appreciates their historical value [6]. - The holding costs for properties in Hong Kong are high, primarily due to management fees and land rent, which can significantly impact investment decisions [9]. Group 3: Educational Considerations - For families prioritizing education, areas 11 and 12 are recommended over the Eastern District, as they are deemed more suitable for girls [8].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a positive atmosphere, leading to an increase in secondary market transactions, with the Central City Leading Index (CCL) rising for three consecutive weeks by 0.73% [1] - The latest CCL is reported at 136.56 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.32%, indicating signs of price stabilization after a period of decline [1] - The CCL remains at an 8.5-year low, with a cumulative decline of 0.78% expected in Hong Kong property prices by the first half of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has intervened in the market four times since June, purchasing a total of HKD 590.72 billion, which may influence local secondary property prices [2] - The CCL Mass index is reported at 137.89 points, with a week-on-week increase of 0.30%, while the CCL for small units is at 136.52 points, up 0.29% [2] - Both CCL Mass and CCL for small units have risen for five consecutive weeks, with cumulative increases of 1.24% and 1.16% respectively [2] Group 3 - The property prices in four districts have shown fluctuations, with the Kowloon CCL Mass rising to 136.15 points, marking the largest increase in 16 weeks at 1.47% [3] - New Territories West CCL Mass increased to 126.83 points, with a week-on-week rise of 1.14%, the largest in 18 weeks [3] - The indices for Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, New Territories West, and New Territories East are at levels comparable to those in mid-2016 to early 2017 [3]