香港楼市在全面"撤辣"两年后明显升温，2025年逐渐走出低谷。2026年开年以来，市场暖意仍在。 进入2026年，香港楼市的热度延续。美联物业分析师岑颂谦表示，受西沙新盘热销及多个项目推售带 动，预计1月香港一手新房成交量将突破2000宗，创2013年《一手住宅物业销售条例》实施以来的最好 表现。其中，豪宅市场表现突出。数据显示，1月前5天已录得6宗逾亿港元的成交，数量较去年1月全月 高出一倍。 深圳罗湖口岸附近，负责推销香港房产的门店中介陈经理对记者表示，人口与资金流入给香港楼市带来 结构性变化，内地买家的身影活跃在香港住宅市场的各个价格段。"之前我们主要推荐一些总价低且租 金回报率高的小户型，但最近有越来越多的客户咨询1000万港元以上的物业。由于近期人民币汇率表现 强劲，香港的高端物业吸引了更多高净值人群关注。" 岑颂谦指出，降息周期启动、经济增长及利好政策将持续推动市场。香港房价持续攀升，反映其已触底 并且出现反弹，房价的涨势在今年有望延续。豪宅市场方面，逾亿港元的物业已成高净值人群重点配置 资产。 近日，香港特区政府土地注册处最新公布的数据显示，香港2025年全年整体楼宇买卖合约登记量（包括 住宅、 ...

量价齐升 近日，香港特区政府土地注册处最新公布的数据显示，香港2025年全年整体楼宇买卖合约登记量(包括 住宅、车位及工商铺物业等)达80702宗，创四年以来新高。2025年，香港整体楼宇买卖合约总值 6142.77亿港元，同比上升15%。其中，住宅楼宇买卖登记共62832宗，总值5198.30亿港元，同比分别上 升18.3%及14.4%。 此外，记者从香港中原地产监测的香港十大屋苑成交数据看见，2025年该十大屋苑已实现成交"量价齐 升"。 回顾2025年，香港并未持续推出大规模的楼市新政，仅在年初将征收100港元印花税的物业价值上限由 300万港元提高至400万港元。不过，在业内人士看来，香港房价的回升或为多重因素共同促成，首先是 价格"超跌反弹"，其次是金融市场的表现加上市场对经济基本面复苏的乐观预期使得买家的购房意愿上 升，房贷利率的下调也促使买家决定趁机入市。此外，香港近年来不断优化的人才与投资政策，积极吸 纳专业人才、企业家及高资产人士，为楼市注入新活力。 新年楼市开局旺 在全面"撤辣"两年后，香港楼市终于在2025年迎来回暖。进入2026年，这股回暖的势头仍在持续。 摩根士丹利发布最新香港地产展 ...

在全面"撤辣"两年后，香港楼市终于在2025年迎来回暖。进入2026年，这股回暖的势头仍在持续。 量价齐升 近日，香港特区政府土地注册处最新公布的数据显示，香港2025年全年整体楼宇买卖合约登记量(包括住宅、车位及工商铺物业等)达80702 宗，创四年以来新高。2025年，香港整体楼宇买卖合约总值6142.77亿港元，同比上升15%。其中，住宅楼宇买卖登记共62832宗，总值 5198.30亿港元，同比分别上升18.3%及14.4%。 回顾2025年，香港并未持续推出大规模的楼市新政，仅在年初将征收100港元印花税的物业价值上限由300万港元提高至400万港元。不 过，在业内人士看来，香港房价的回升或为多重因素共同促成，首先是价格"超跌反弹"，其次是金融市场的表现加上市场对经济基本面复苏 的乐观预期使得买家的购房意愿上升 房贷利率的下调也促使买家决定趁机入市 此外 香港近年来不断优化的人才与投资政策 积极吸 的乐观预期使得买家的购房意愿上升，房贷利率的下调也促使买家决定趁机入市。此外，香港近年来不断优化的人才与投资政策，积极吸 纳专业人才、企业家及高资产人士，为楼市注入新活力。 新年楼市开局旺 进入2026年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market is showing positive performance with continuous price increases, as indicated by the latest "Centaline Property Price Index" reaching 134.39 points, marking a week-on-week increase of 0.22% and a one-and-a-half-year high [1] Price Index Summary - The latest property price index has risen by 1.87% compared to four weeks ago, with a cumulative increase of 4.89% year-to-date, and a rise of 6.42% from the year's low [1] - The "Centaline Hong Kong Island Price Index" is at 140.56 points, up 0.3% week-on-week; the "Centaline Kowloon Price Index" is at 139.13 points, up 0.48%; while the "Centaline New Territories Price Index" is at 123.29 points, showing a slight decline of 0.01% [1] - Compared to four weeks ago, property prices in all three regions (Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, and New Territories) have increased by 2.1%, 0.94%, and 2.6% respectively [1] - Year-to-date price changes show increases of 3.41% for Hong Kong Island, 6.18% for Kowloon, and 4.32% for New Territories [1] Confidence Index Summary - The "Centaline Confidence Index" has risen to 73.8 points, reflecting a slight week-on-week increase of 0.1% after two weeks of decline, indicating improved owner confidence in the market [1] - The confidence index remains above the average level, suggesting a strong potential for continued price increases in the Hong Kong property market [1]

作者：柯谈 中国香港的房价涨了，这个大家应该都知道。如果你不知道，那就太落伍了。 中原集团大家都不陌生，这个中介机构在大陆各个城市都有分店。虽然作为中介来说，预测房价大涨，可信度不能说特别高，但是不可否认的是：香港房 价，早已止跌，且开启上涨！ 香港差估署数据显示，在连续下跌三年后，今年前九个月私人住宅售价指数终于止跌回升约1.14%。9月份楼价指数更创下18个月来的最大单月升幅，按 月上升1.32%，报292.5点。这已是自五月以来连续四个月上升，累计涨幅已达2.1%。 根据美联物业研究中心数据显示，今年2-10月，香港一手住宅成交量持续攀升，连续8个月突破1500宗，10月份更是达到了2031宗，创下21年来最好的成 交记录。 香港房价这轮高点也是2021年，和我们大陆一样，但是为啥香港能三年就止跌回稳呢？ 未来能涨多少呢？ 最近有个资深人士出来预测了。这几天，中原集团主席施永青预计："香港楼价将在三年内升穿2021年楼市高位，与今年3月的低位相比，升幅达 41.85%。"同时，他认为 此次升浪更可以持续六年，由2025年升至2031年，与低位134.89点相比，升幅可达85%。 没错，施永青预测，香港房 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a surge in new home sales, driven by favorable conditions such as reasonable property prices, declining mortgage rates, and rising rental costs, with significant contributions from mainland buyers [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for new homes in Hong Kong has increased significantly, with projects like New World Development's residential project in Yau Ma Tei receiving over 1,200 applications for 63 units, resulting in an oversubscription rate of 18 times [2]. - The proportion of mainland buyers and "Hong Kong drifters" in the market exceeds 60%, indicating a strong interest from these groups [2]. - The number of transactions by mainland buyers has risen for two consecutive quarters, with 3,797 transactions recorded in Q3, a nearly 7% increase from Q2 [4]. Group 2: Investment Appeal - The rental yield in Hong Kong remains attractive, with some areas offering yields above 4%, which is appealing to long-term investors [2][5]. - The overall property registration volume in Hong Kong has reached 70,245 this year, a 3.3% increase from last year, with total registration amounts surpassing 536.83 billion HKD [5]. - The combination of lower property taxes and declining mortgage rates has stimulated demand, leading to a positive reassessment of property values in the market [5][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Hong Kong real estate market is entering an upward cycle, with expectations of sustained growth over the next six years, from 2025 to 2031 [7]. - The influx of capital, particularly from the booming IPO market, is expected to further enhance the attractiveness of the Hong Kong real estate sector [6][7]. - Major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, anticipate a recovery in the Hong Kong property market post-2025, indicating a positive long-term outlook [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a positive shift due to reasonable property prices, declining mortgage rates, and rising rental income, leading to optimistic price expectations [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mainland buyers are significantly contributing to the market, with reports of properties being purchased for around 2.5 million HKD, yielding rental returns exceeding 4% [2]. - New property projects are seeing overwhelming demand, with some projects receiving over 1,200 applications for just 63 units, indicating a subscription rate of 18 times [2]. - The number of mainland buyers entering the market has increased for two consecutive quarters, with a nearly 7% rise in transactions from Q2 to Q3 this year [3]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Factors - The reduction of property taxes and lower mortgage rates due to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts are stimulating demand in the Hong Kong real estate market [4]. - The total property registration volume in Hong Kong has surpassed 70,000 for the first time since 2021, with a year-to-date registration amount reaching 536.83 billion HKD, exceeding last year's total [4]. - The influx of capital into Hong Kong, particularly in the IPO market, is driving demand for real estate as international financial institutions expand their presence [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the current upward trend in the Hong Kong real estate market could last for six years, from 2025 to 2031, as the market is expected to recover from its low point [6]. - Major financial institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, anticipate a recovery in the Hong Kong property market post-2025, entering a new upward cycle [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a resurgence, driven by reasonable property prices, declining mortgage rates, and rising rental income, leading to positive price expectations [2][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shift in the cost-effectiveness of renting versus buying has changed, with many buyers transitioning from renting to purchasing properties due to favorable conditions [2][3]. - Recent sales data indicates a strong demand for new properties, with significant oversubscription in several projects, such as New World Development's Yau Ma Tei project receiving over 1,200 applications for 63 units, an oversubscription rate of 18 times [4][6]. - The overall property registration volume in Hong Kong has reached 70,245 transactions this year, a 3.3% increase compared to last year's total of 67,979 [9]. Group 2: Buyer Demographics - Mainland buyers are playing a crucial role in the market, with a 7% increase in transactions from Mandarin-speaking buyers in Q3, totaling 3,797 transactions [6]. - The appeal of Hong Kong real estate is attributed to its investment value, identity symbolism, educational resources, and asset protection features, which continue to attract mainland clients [6][9]. Group 3: Economic Influences - The easing of property taxes and lower mortgage rates, influenced by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, have reduced the financial burden on buyers, stimulating demand [9][11]. - Analysts predict that the current upward trend in the Hong Kong real estate market could last for six years, from 2025 to 2031, as major financial institutions anticipate a recovery post-2025 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market has entered a rebound phase after a three-year decline, with prices rising for four consecutive months since May 2023, indicating a potential U-shaped recovery in the market [1][14][16]. Market Trends - The Hong Kong property market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past 40 years, characterized by distinct phases of rapid growth and sharp declines [3][6]. - The first phase (1984-1997) saw prices increase over ninefold, while the second phase (1997-2003) experienced a 69% drop due to the Asian financial crisis and other factors [6][13]. - The third phase (2004-2021) was marked by a 4.6 times increase in property prices, transitioning from a slow growth to a rapid increase [9][12]. - The fourth phase (2022-2025) has been a period of continuous decline, with prices dropping approximately 27% from the peak in December 2021 [13][14]. Recent Developments - Since June 2023, the market has shown signs of recovery, with a reported price increase of 2.1% by September and around 3% in October [14][16]. - The current rebound is notable as it is the only city in China experiencing a price increase amidst a broader national decline [16]. Economic Factors - Positive economic indicators include a 30% rise in the Hang Seng Index and a 209% year-on-year increase in IPO fundraising, suggesting a robust economic environment [20][23]. - Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.8% year-on-year in the third quarter, marking 11 consecutive quarters of growth, which is crucial for the real estate market's recovery [23]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The population in Hong Kong has stabilized around 7.5 million, with a significant portion of households still renting, indicating strong demand for housing [30][33]. - Recent policies aimed at attracting talent have led to an influx of new residents, further supporting housing demand [35]. - Despite a high potential supply of 112,000 units, inventory has been decreasing, with a notable drop to 102,000 units by September 2023 [41][42]. Rental Market Influence - Rising rental prices are contributing to the upward pressure on property prices, as many residents transition from renting to buying due to increased rental costs [46][49]. - The correlation between rental increases and property transactions suggests that as rents rise, more individuals may opt to purchase homes, thereby driving demand [49]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize with modest price increases, although significant growth may be limited due to ample inventory and ongoing supply adjustments by the government [55][56]. - The potential for price increases is evident in recent sales trends, where new developments are attracting buyers at competitive prices, leading to quick sales and subsequent price hikes [58][59].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly from mainland Chinese buyers, with some properties seeing a low success rate of only 2.5% in lottery draws for new developments [4][5] - Mainland students and parents are increasingly purchasing properties in Hong Kong, viewing it as a long-term investment and a means to secure residency [5][6] - High-profile individuals and companies are also investing in Hong Kong real estate, indicating renewed confidence in the market [8][12] Group 1: Mainland Buyers' Trends - A significant number of mainland Chinese individuals have purchased properties in Hong Kong over the past decade, with approximately 67,813 buyers spending a total of 802.2 billion yuan [10] - The trend of mainland buyers is expected to continue, especially after the "撤辣" policy in 2024, which may lead to record-high purchases [11] - In the first nine months of 2024, mainland buyers registered over 12,000 transactions in Hong Kong, with a total value of 94.1 billion yuan, indicating a strong recovery in the market [12] Group 2: Investment Motivations - Buyers are motivated by the potential for rental income, with some properties offering rental yields of 3% to 3.5% [6][11] - The average purchase price for properties by mainland buyers has decreased significantly, with a 31.5% drop from 1.384 million yuan in 2018 to 948,600 yuan in 2024, suggesting that buyers are capitalizing on lower prices [12] - Notable transactions include a mainland executive purchasing a 59.44 square meter property for approximately 14.88 million yuan, emphasizing the trend of investing in real estate for future use or rental [6][7]