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交银国际:上调香港房地产业评级至“领先” 看好新鸿基地产、领展房产基金
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-28 02:21
Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International highlights the asymmetric recovery opportunities in the Hong Kong real estate market, indicating that the recovery will be a gradual process encompassing various asset sub-sectors [1] Group 1: Market Recovery Insights - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is expected to be a multi-faceted process rather than a singular event [1] - Key catalysts for the market recovery include improvements in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant policy easing, and the return of fundamental demand drivers such as demographic trends [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - CMB International recommends New World Development (00016) and Link REIT (00823) as preferred picks for residential and commercial properties, respectively, with target prices set at HKD 111.7 and HKD 45.7 [1] - The firm anticipates that investors will prioritize the recovery of the residential sector, followed by high-quality retail assets and core office spaces [1] Group 3: Rental and Price Projections - Continuous population inflow in Hong Kong is expected to drive housing demand, particularly in the rental market [2] - Rental levels are projected to increase by approximately 3-5% in 2025, with annual growth of about 3% in 2026 and 2027 [2] - Residential prices are forecasted to rise by 3-5% in 2025, 5% in 2026, and 5% in 2027, driven by positive net rental returns and interest rate cuts [2]