Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the integration of vocational and general education, with a strong demand for high school education supported by government policies and a projected population dividend lasting for 7-8 years [1][2] - The high school education sector is expected to benefit from policy support aimed at expanding educational resources and promoting vocational education integration, as outlined in the 2025 Education Strong Nation Construction Plan [2][3] - The proportion of private high schools is increasing, with significant growth potential in the central and western regions of China, where vocational and general education integration is more pronounced [3] Group 2 - In 2023, the number of high school students reached 28.04 million, with private high school enrollment accounting for 20% of the total, up from 10% in 2011, indicating a growing trend in private education [3] - The government is actively promoting the integration of vocational and general education, as evidenced by the removal of "vocational-general separation" from the revised Vocational Education Law in 2022 [2] - The demand for high school education remains robust, with the number of candidates for the college entrance examination reaching 12.91 million in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 8%, reflecting a rising participation rate among the eligible population [1]

Core Viewpoint - The high school education sector is expected to benefit from demographic and policy dividends, leading to an increase in degree supply [1] Group 1: Demand and Population Trends - High school education demand is inelastic, with a remaining demographic dividend period of 7-8 years; the population of eligible students is projected to remain stable until around 2032-2033 [2] - In 2023, the number of candidates for the college entrance examination reached 12.91 million, an increase of 8% year-on-year, with the participation rate among eligible students rising to 81% [2] Group 2: Policy Support - The 2025 "Education Strong Nation Construction Plan" aims to accelerate the expansion of ordinary high school education resources and promote the integration of vocational and general education [3] - The revised "Vocational Education Law" in 2022 removed the term "vocational-general separation," indicating a shift towards deeper integration of vocational and general high school education [3] Group 3: Private High School Growth - The proportion of private high schools has been steadily increasing, with the number of private ordinary high schools rising from 17% of total high schools in 2011 to 30% in 2023 [4] - In 2023, there were 15,381 ordinary high schools in China, with 4,567 being private; private high school enrollment reached 5.48 million, accounting for 20% of total high school students [4] - The potential for expansion in high school education is greater in central and western regions, where the vocational-general education ratio is relatively high [4]