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帮主郑重早间观察:半导体涨价+AI缺电+经贸落地,中长线就盯这3个方向
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-06 02:09
Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - SK Hynix and Nvidia have finalized a price increase for HBM4, setting it at $560, which is over 10% higher than the expected price of $500 and more than 50% above the current HBM3E price, indicating strong demand driven by AI applications [3] - HBM is described as "super memory" for AI chips, with Nvidia's upcoming chip Rubin relying on it, highlighting the critical role of HBM in the AI supply chain [3] Group 2: AI Industry - The AI sector is entering a "new wattage era," with leaders from Microsoft and OpenAI stating that the issue is not insufficient computing power but a lack of electrical supply, emphasizing the need for adequate power to support GPU operations [3] - The U.S. Department of Energy has warned that power outages may double in the next five years, underscoring the urgency of addressing power supply for AI development [3] - Apple plans to invest $1 billion annually in Google's AI services to upgrade Siri, indicating that even major tech companies are actively enhancing their AI capabilities [3] Group 3: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. is set to eliminate the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and extend the suspension of a 24% "reciprocal tariff" for another year, which is expected to benefit companies with high export ratios by reducing tariff pressures and enhancing net profits [4] - The market is showing confidence as evidenced by Kweichow Moutai's new share buyback and cash dividend of 30 billion yuan, reflecting proactive market value management [4] - Major brokerages like Huatai Securities and China Merchants Securities have raised margin trading limits, indicating institutional optimism about the market outlook [4] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Recommended investment focuses include the AI supply chain, particularly companies involved in HBM production, computing chip supply, and power equipment benefiting from AI's electricity demands [5] - Export-oriented sectors with high overseas revenue and production capabilities are also highlighted as promising, especially in light of improved trade conditions and stable currency exchange rates [5] - High-dividend core assets, such as Kweichow Moutai, are suggested for long-term investment due to their stable performance and proactive shareholder returns [5] Group 5: Market Trends - There are signs of a market style shift, with previously high-performing TMT sectors potentially facing profit-taking, suggesting a need for balanced portfolio allocation [6] - While increased margin trading limits are positive, long-term investors are advised against excessive leverage and should focus on gradual accumulation during market dips [6]