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第一创业晨会纪要-20250703
First Capital Securities· 2025-07-03 03:32
Macro Economic Group - The ADP report indicates a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the US for June, marking the first negative growth since March 2023, with expectations set at an increase of 98,000 jobs [4] - The service sector saw a significant decline, losing 66,000 jobs, primarily in professional and business services, healthcare, and education [4] - Market anticipations for the upcoming non-farm payroll report suggest a modest increase of 100,000 jobs, with unemployment rates potentially reaching 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [5] Industry Comprehensive Group - A trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was announced, imposing a minimum 20% tariff on all goods exported to the US from Vietnam, which could lower the tariff rates compared to the current over 30% rates from China [8] - The agreement is expected to reduce uncertainty regarding the US-China trade war, as it reflects the worst-case scenario for tariffs [8] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In June, the top five automotive companies by sales were BYD, SAIC, Geely, Chery, and Great Wall, with sales figures of 383,000, 365,000, 236,000, 234,000, and 111,000 units respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 21.6%, 42%, 16.6%, and 12.9% [11] - New energy vehicle sales are driven by technological advancements, particularly in pure electric range and fast-charging technology, alleviating consumer concerns [11] - BYD's overseas sales surged from 27,000 units two years ago to 90,000 units, indicating the global competitiveness of Chinese new energy vehicles [11] Consumer Group - The company Card Game reported a revenue of 10.057 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 278%, with an adjusted net profit of 4.466 billion yuan, reflecting a 378% growth [16] - The company holds a market share of 71.1% in the collectible card segment, with rapid growth in non-card revenue, increasing by 284.5% year-on-year [16] - The diversified product layout, including figurines and stationery, has significantly supported the company's sustained growth [16]