高增长的稀缺性
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广发策略:26年定价逻辑前瞻,“弹簧”未到极限时
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-04 08:53
Group 1 - The global bull market structure for 2025 is characterized by a "two-eight differentiation," where the percentage of declining stocks in major markets like the US, Germany, Japan, and South Korea is significantly higher compared to A-shares, which only have an 18% decline rate [1][38]. - The leading sectors for growth are technology and resources, driven by macro narratives such as the acceleration of the AI industry cycle and the de-dollarization cycle, with strong profit support for these sectors [4][41]. - The concentration of market capitalization is reaching new highs, with major global equity markets showing a concentration ratio of 30%-50% for the top 10 companies, while China's market capitalization concentration is only 18% [5]. Group 2 - The scarcity of high-growth assets is increasing, with only 36% of A-share companies expected to grow at over 20%, down from a historical average of around 45% [3]. - The overseas revenue share of A-share companies has been steadily increasing over the past 20 years but remains low compared to developed countries, with an average of 15% for China compared to 60% for Europe and 30% for the US and Japan [6]. - The effectiveness of pricing based on economic conditions is expected to be more pronounced in 2025, with a focus on profitability indicators such as ROE and net profit growth [10].