来源：晨明的策略深度思考 一、三个特征，看2025年全球牛市结构： （1）上涨结构："二八分化"。美国、德国、日本、韩国股市，2025年下跌个股占比56%、51%、29%、 35%； A股有一定普涨特征，下跌比例仅为18%。 二、2025年全球领涨的资产在交易什么？——高增长的稀缺性 （1）经济周期平坦化之后，高增长的资产变得越来越少。A股增速>20%的公司占36%，往年中枢约 45%。 （2）领涨板块：科技与资源品，分别对应两个宏观叙事：一个是AI产业周期、去美元化周期，领涨的 板块多数有强劲的盈利支撑。 | 排版 | 2005 | | 2006 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | | 2010 2011 | | | 服:A股每年财务招标与当年涨幅的相关系数 (%, 2025财报舰至Q3,逐幅截至20251215) | | | | | 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] "弹簧"未到极限时 ——2026 年定价逻辑前瞻 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | 010-59136616 | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 李如娟 | | SAC 执证号：S0260524030002 | | 020-66336563 | | lirujuan@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，李如娟并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | 972918116公共联系人2026-01-04 15:00:09 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 25 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 2026 年出口链展望:——宏观 叙事、行业选择、配置节奏 2025-12-28 广发策略&TMT：全球科技历 史泡沫复盘 ...

MBS - 11 12 - 4 许巳阳 11 6 10 STREET 11 . 1998 - 1998 2 (=) BLACK 张晟刚 Alliner 姜云飞 郭晨凯 制图 开栏语 展望2026年，如何以专业视角穿透市场迷雾，把握投资机遇？ 即日起，本报推出《机构前瞻 洞见新机》栏目，汇聚头部买方机构投研力量，聚焦大类资产配置核心 命题，拆解宏观政策脉络、研判市场波动趋势、挖掘细分赛道机遇，为投资者提供前瞻性的配置参考。 ◎记者 马嘉悦 岁末是布局来年的好时机。经过今年的亮眼表现，权益资产和黄金资产将如何演绎？影响市场的关键因 素有哪些？接下来又有哪些投资机会值得把握？无风险收益率下行的背景下，债券投资又往何处去？上 海证券报记者邀请了三位百亿级私募人士——久期投资董事长兼投资总监姜云飞、银叶投资首席投资官 许巳阳和利位投资总经理张晟刚，对上述议题展开探讨。 权益资产仍是组合"必选项" 上海证券报：2025年，股票市场持续演绎结构性行情。展望2026年，资本市场有哪些积极因素？能否延 续结构性行情？ 姜云飞：2026年，A股和港股市场大概率仍将演绎亮眼的结构性行情。具体来看，尽管2025年股票市场 的估值得到 ...

向阳花开，乘势而上——2026 年 A 股年度策略 20251214 摘要 2025 年市场由流动性驱动，万得全 A 指数上涨 25%，估值提升贡献 20%，盈利支撑仅占 5%，主要受益于国家队支撑、险资流入及居民存 款转移等增量资金。 预计 2026 年 PPI 将回升，中性预期下年底或达-0.7 左右，与全 A 非金 融企业盈利增速和 ROE 一致，盈利增速有望达 10%左右。 PPI 弱回升情境下，沪深 300 指数 ERP 可能降至负一倍标准差，对应指 数涨幅约 10%，即从 4,000 点涨至 4,500 点左右。 微观流动性依赖外资和居民存款搬家，外资回流受限，需依赖银行理财 到期及收益率下行吸引居民资金入市，券商启动是关键。 券商板块对引导散户资金入市至关重要，券商股短期快速上涨通常伴随 市场中小单净流入量占比提升，预计 2026 年一季度可能重现。 2026 年一季度是全年确定性最强窗口，政策发力、经济预期乐观、流 动性宽松及事件催化，是布局净值最佳时机，下半年市场或震荡。 春季躁动行情或提前至 2025 年底至 2026 年 1 月上旬，成长风格胜率 高，关注软件、传媒中的游戏、机器人、创新 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a reversal in the relationship between GDP, revenue, and profit growth, with A-share revenue growth surpassing nominal GDP for the first time since 2023, showing a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% in Q3 2025 [1][10] - The net profit growth rate for all A-shares (excluding financial and real estate sectors) improved by 0.9 percentage points to 3.8% in Q3 2025, indicating a marginal recovery in profitability [1][19] - The net asset return (TTM) rose to 7.5%, marking two consecutive quarters of improvement, driven primarily by profit margin recovery [1][19] Group 2 - The midstream manufacturing sector showed significant improvement, with revenue and profit growth rates of 2.1% and 18.1% respectively in Q3 2025, reflecting a marginal increase compared to Q2 [2][39] - The TMT sector continued to outperform, with profit share rising to 16.0%, while the downstream consumer sector saw a decline in profit share to 25.1%, the lowest since Q3 2024 [2][39] - The non-bank financial sector recorded nearly 40% profit growth, indicating a strong performance relative to other sectors [2][39] Group 3 - The report highlights that the recovery in upstream profit share often requires a return to price advantages, which was observed in September 2025, suggesting a potential easing of performance pressures in the upstream sectors [3][29] - The energy metals and fiberglass manufacturing sectors achieved simultaneous volume and price increases, indicating effective outcomes from anti-involution policies [3][29] - The report notes that while the technology sector's absolute growth rates are high, the degree of expectation fulfillment is not particularly strong, suggesting potential risks if larger-scale industry catalysts do not emerge [3][29] Group 4 - The report indicates that the overall revenue growth for all A-shares was 1.36% year-on-year as of Q3 2025, with a notable improvement of 1.2 percentage points compared to Q2 [10][14] - Capital expenditure growth for all A-shares (excluding financial and real estate) recorded a decline of 1.91%, indicating limited new capital investment and a focus on updates and renovations [10][15] - The inventory growth rate for all A-shares (excluding financial and real estate) rebounded to 4.5%, reflecting a recovery in demand and improved operational expectations [10][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a "high-cut low" trend, with high-performing sectors showing a significant contrast to the technology sector's performance in Q3, suggesting a complex structural adjustment in the market [1][2] - As of Q3, institutional investors' holdings in the technology (TMT) sector have surpassed 40%, reaching 40.16%, which is a notable increase compared to previous peaks during the new energy wave [2][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the transition from a "liquidity bull" to a "fundamental bull" in the fourth quarter, alongside geopolitical and economic signals that could influence market dynamics [3][8] Group 2 - In Q3, the top five sectors for institutional investors' increased holdings were electronics, communication, computers, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, reflecting a strong focus on the AI industry chain [7][8] - Conversely, the sectors with the most significant reductions in holdings included banking, food and beverage, home appliances, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles, indicating a shift away from traditional defensive sectors [7][8] - The report highlights that the TMT sector's holdings have reached a new high, surpassing previous peaks in the new energy sector, indicating a strong institutional consensus on technology investments driven by the AI wave [9][12] Group 3 - The report notes that the concentration of institutional holdings in the technology sector is at an all-time high, with significant increases in specific areas such as AI hardware, communication devices, and semiconductor equipment [19][27] - The analysis of fund managers' reports shows that "AI industry chain" is the most frequently mentioned theme, reflecting a strong consensus on the growth potential of technology and innovation [28][31] - The report identifies a clear trend of increasing allocations towards AI-related infrastructure and domestic alternatives, with significant investments in companies like Industrial Fulian and Alibaba, indicating a robust focus on the AI supply chain [32][33]

Core Insights - The total scale of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs reached 294.121 billion yuan as of September 25, with four ETFs exceeding 10 billion yuan in size [1][3] - The number of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs has surpassed 100, indicating a significant expansion in the product ecosystem since the first ETFs were launched in 2020 [2][4] - The introduction of various ETF categories, including broad-based, thematic, and sector-specific ETFs, reflects a growing diversity in investment options [2][4] Product Development - As of September 26, 2025, the number of Sci-Tech Innovation Board ETFs has reached 102, with 61 new ETFs launched in 2023 alone [2][4] - The establishment of the first Sci-Tech 100 ETF in 2023 and the first Sci-Tech 200 ETF in 2024 has contributed to a more structured ETF system [2] - New ETF categories include those focused on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and biomedicine, enhancing the range of investment strategies available [2] Institutional Engagement - Major public funds are increasingly focusing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with several firms establishing comprehensive product matrices [4] - The number of off-exchange index funds related to the Sci-Tech Innovation Board has also grown, reaching 124 as of September 26 [4] - Continuous issuance and reporting of new Sci-Tech Innovation Board products indicate strong institutional interest and market activity [4] Market Performance and Trends - The allocation of active equity funds to Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks reached a historical high of 15.36% by the end of Q2, reflecting growing confidence in the sector [4] - The outperformance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is attributed to the dual drivers of the AI industry cycle and liquidity influx, leading to record highs in related indices [5] - The ongoing reforms and the establishment of a growth tier for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board are expected to attract high-quality listings and enhance market dynamics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The technology stocks collectively rose, leading the Hang Seng Tech Index to increase over 2.5%, reaching its highest level since November 2021 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Baidu Group-SW (09888) increased by 10.34%, reaching HKD 124.9 [1] - NIO-SW (09866) surged by 764%, reaching HKD 54.95 [1] - JD Group-SW (09618) rose by 4.77%, reaching HKD 136.2 [1] - Alibaba-W (09988) increased by 3.39%, reaching HKD 158.7 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The National Cybersecurity Entrepreneur Symposium was held in Kunming, emphasizing the need for leading companies to take responsibility for "bottleneck" technology breakthroughs, particularly in key areas like chips [1] - The National Internet Information Office's Deputy Director Yang Jianwen highlighted the importance of creating innovative alliances with universities to accelerate the development of self-controlled secure chips [1] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - On September 15, China Merchants Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Baidu in Shenzhen [1] Group 4: Market Outlook - According to CCB International, technology stocks are expected to benefit from the current domestic substitution acceleration and rapid development of the AI industry cycle [1] - Despite the ongoing macro "weak recovery" environment, large-cap technology companies still have room for growth, with absolute prosperity advantages remaining evident [1] - The recent performance of Hong Kong tech stocks and their correlation with market sentiment may lead to a dual strengthening of market emotions and momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The technology stocks collectively rose, leading to a more than 2.5% increase in the Hang Seng Tech Index, reaching a new high since November 2021 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Baidu Group-SW (09888) increased by 10.34%, reaching HKD 124.9 [1] - NIO-SW (09866) surged by 764%, reaching HKD 54.95 [1] - JD Group-SW (09618) rose by 4.77%, reaching HKD 136.2 [1] - Alibaba-W (09988) increased by 3.39%, reaching HKD 158.7 [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - The National Cybersecurity Entrepreneur Symposium was held, emphasizing the need for leading companies to take responsibility for "bottleneck" technology breakthroughs, particularly in key areas like chips [1] - The focus is on creating innovative partnerships with universities and research institutions to accelerate the development of self-controlled secure chips [1] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - On September 15, China Merchants Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Baidu in Shenzhen [1] Group 4: Market Outlook - According to CCB International, technology stocks are expected to benefit from the current domestic substitution acceleration and the rapid development of the AI industry cycle [1] - Despite a macroeconomic "weak recovery" environment, large-cap technology companies still have room for growth, with clear absolute prosperity advantages [1] - The recent performance of Hong Kong tech stocks and the market sentiment may lead to a dual strengthening of market emotions and momentum [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.44%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 0.91%, indicating strong performance in tech stocks, including NIO up over 7%, Baidu up over 6%, and JD Group up over 3% [1] - Alibaba opened up 2.74%, reaching a nearly four-year high, contributing to the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks returning to 30 trillion HKD, with a cumulative increase of over 96% this year [1] Group 2 - According to Zhongyin International, the acceleration of domestic substitution and the rapid development of the AI industry cycle are expected to benefit tech stocks, with large-cap tech companies having further upside potential [2] - The strategy team at China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) believes that the improvement in supply-demand dynamics may lead to an economic turning point, with capital expenditure and R&D in the tech sector gradually translating into corporate profits [2] - Huatai Securities' chief macroeconomist noted that the liquidity environment for Hong Kong stocks remains ample, with expectations for fundamental recovery providing significant support [2] Group 3 - China Galaxy Securities' chief strategy analyst suggests focusing on three investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks: high growth sectors with low to medium valuations, sectors benefiting from policy support such as the AI industry chain, and financial sectors offering stable returns amid uncertainties [3]