高技术产业基础高级化
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专访中国社科院经济研究所原所长黄群慧:既要重视AI赋能千行百业,也要考量对就业的替代效应和带来的收入极化
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-23 15:49
Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, reflecting a strategic shift in response to current domestic and international conditions, with a focus on both supply-side and demand-side policies [2][3][4]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The prioritization of "building a modern industrial system" signifies a need for new growth drivers, as traditional industries currently account for about 80% of the economy, with potential for significant market expansion through transformation [3][4]. - The modern industrial system is crucial for supporting the transformation of traditional industries and fostering new growth dynamics, highlighting the interdependence between technological innovation and industrial development [3][5]. Group 2: Policy Resource Allocation - The government should balance investments in traditional industries with those in strategic emerging and future industries, recognizing that traditional industries are essential for overall economic transformation [6][7]. - Different investment mechanisms are required for traditional, strategic emerging, and future industries, emphasizing the need for tailored policies to avoid pitfalls in resource allocation [8]. Group 3: Future Industries - The selection of six key future industries—quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-computer interfaces, and sixth-generation mobile communications—reflects a strategic focus on original innovation, market potential, and national security [9][10]. - The potential for these industries to achieve commercial viability within five years remains uncertain, with various factors influencing their market readiness and scalability [11][12]. Group 4: High-Tech Industry Growth - The goal of "doubling" the scale of high-tech industries over the next decade indicates a significant push for structural upgrades and the development of new high-tech sectors [14][15]. - Achieving breakthroughs in key areas like integrated circuits and industrial mother machines is critical for overcoming technological bottlenecks and enhancing national competitiveness [16]. Group 5: Artificial Intelligence Integration - The repeated emphasis on "artificial intelligence" in the plan indicates its role as a core driver for modern industrialization, aiming to empower various sectors of the economy [17][18]. - The social implications of AI, including its impact on employment and income distribution, must be considered in policy-making to ensure inclusive growth and address potential ethical concerns [18][19].