明泰铝业 20260227 摘要 公司 2025 年预计销量约 158 万吨，年度利润创历史新高，主要得益于 销量增长和产品结构调整，而非加工费上涨，体现经营质量的实质性改 善。 宏盛新材首条气垫炉于 2025 年三季度末投产，满产对应产能 10 万吨， 虽当年贡献有限，但 2026 年销售目标为 5-8 万吨，标志着公司在高端 产品热处理装备上的重要进展。 公司计划 2026 年投产第二条气垫炉，整体气垫炉体系规划为三条产线， 满产后总规模约 25 万吨，进一步提升高端产品生产能力。 2025 年全年吨净利在 1,200 元以上，2026 年 1 月销量显著高于去年 同期，表明整体需求稳定，未出现明显下滑。 2026 年销量增长主要来自亿瑞新材的贡献，韩国光阳铝业预计带来约 2 万吨增量，宏盛气垫炉主要作用在于高端产品配套和结构改善，不直接 新增产能。 亿瑞新材新增 72 万吨产能预计 2027-2028 年每年新增约 20 万吨，至 2030 年达产，届时公司整体规模预计达约 230 万吨，国内暂无其他重 大产能项目规划。 公司将继续优化产品结构，新增产能主要用于高端产品开发与供给，并 积极拓展新能源领域 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.585 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 132.92 million yuan, up 8.43% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 148 million yuan, 184 million yuan, and 210 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55, 0.68, and 0.78 yuan [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 25.4, 20.4, and 17.9 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [2] Revenue Breakdown - The company achieved a revenue of 3.295 billion yuan from power cables in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.16%, with power cables, electrical equipment cables, and bare wires accounting for 91.93%, 7.65%, and 0.41% of total revenue respectively [3] - Sales revenue in the East China region reached 2.695 billion yuan, accounting for 75.18% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 36.32% [3] - Major clients include State Grid Corporation and China Southern Power Grid, contributing 51.57% and 11.03% of sales revenue respectively, with the top five clients accounting for 74.32% of total sales [3] Market Expansion - The company is actively expanding its market presence among large state-owned enterprises and has made significant progress in this area [4] - The company is also increasing its efforts in foreign trade, establishing an independent foreign trade team to expand its overseas cable market business [4] - A procurement framework contract has been signed with Wanhua Chemical Group for the supply of power cables [4] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.077 billion yuan, 4.696 billion yuan, and 5.279 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.7%, 15.2%, and 12.4% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow to 148 million yuan, 184 million yuan, and 210 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 24.4%, and 14.0% [6] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 12.2%, 12.2%, and 11.8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]