事件：1）德邦股份发布2025 年半年报，2025 年上半年公司实现营业收入205.55亿元，同比+11.43%； 归母净利润0.52 亿元，同比-84.34%；其中Q2 收入101.48亿元，同比+10.89%；归母净利润1.21 亿元， 同比-49.81%。2）此前公司发布关于董事兼总经理辞职暨补选董事、聘任总经理的公告，原董事兼总经 理黄华波先生因个人原因辞职，经董事长胡伟先生提名，董事会聘任王雁丰先生为公司总经理。 盈利预测与评级：我们预计公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为3.23/8.34/14.10亿元，当前股价对应的 PE 分别为53.5/20.7/12.2 倍。高端快运格局清晰，公司与京东网络融合持续推进，产能利用率提升下进 一步强化成本的节降空间，随着经营改善持续释放，公司盈利弹性可期，考虑到宏观需求疲软，2025 年公司成本承压，经营质量提升有待推动，我们调整公司评级为"增持"评级。 风险提示。1）宏观经济波动导致运量增速不及预期；2）燃料价格上升导致成本管控不及预期；3）市 场竞争加剧导致份额流失。 费用节降持续发力，销售费用因资源投入而小幅增长。2025 年Q2 期间费用率为5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but management changes may enhance revenue quality [5] - The company reported a revenue of 20.555 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.43%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.34% [7] - The new management is expected to focus on improving transportation quality and service levels, which may help optimize core business and enhance revenue quality [7] Financial Summary - Revenue forecast for 2025 is 44.303 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.76% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 0.323 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 62.48% year-on-year [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.32 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 53.47 [6] - The company's gross margin for Q2 2025 was 6.70%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company aims to enhance cost efficiency and improve operational quality, which may lead to better profitability in the future [7]