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英伟达(NVDA):H20恢复对华出口,上调目标价至195美元
HTSC· 2025-07-17 10:47
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NVIDIA with a target price raised to $195 [5][3]. Core Insights - NVIDIA has received approval to resume exports of the H20 chip to China, which has positively impacted its stock price and the overall semiconductor sector [1][3]. - The anticipated recovery in H20 shipments is expected to address a previously projected revenue gap of approximately $10.5 billion, with significant contributions expected in FY2024 and FY2025 [2][3]. - The report highlights strong growth in NVIDIA's gaming business, driven by a shift in AI workload demands to high-end gaming graphics cards due to H20 export restrictions [2][3]. Financial Projections - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for FY26, FY27, and FY28 have been increased by 7.2%, 14.4%, and 10.0%, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on revenue growth [3][18]. - The projected revenue for FY2026 is $224.19 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 71.80% [9][18]. - The adjusted EPS for FY2026 is forecasted to be $4.88, representing a 7.16% increase from previous estimates [18][25]. Market Context - The semiconductor industry is experiencing heightened interest due to the evolving U.S. export control policies and China's advancements in high-end chip development, which could reshape the global semiconductor landscape [1][2]. - Competitors like AMD have also received export approvals, indicating a competitive environment in the high-performance chip market [1][2].