【文/观察者网 熊超然】当地时间9月17日，在美国新闻网站"Axios新闻网"举办的一场人工智能峰会 （AI+ DC Summit）上，美国AI初创公司Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪（Dario Amodei）宣称，美 国在芯片领域的主导地位，可能是其目前仍对中国拥有的"唯一优势"，应当予以"保护"。 就在前一天，路透社独家报道称，美国芯片制造商英伟达公司推出多款对华"减配特供版"芯片，但越来 越多的中国买家已不愿买单。比如，英伟达最新为中国市场量身定制的AI芯片RTX6000D需求低迷，其 主要大客户——多家中国科技巨头拒绝下单。 "将这些芯片卖给中国，无异于拿我们国家的未来做赌注。"满口所谓"安全利益"的阿莫迪在谈到英伟达 最新报道时声称："无论这项技术（AI）有多危险，无论需要什么样的防护措施，我认为在这项技术上 击败中国也至关重要。"他进而炒作渲染："这可能会控制国家的命运，这可能会控制'自由和民主'的未 来。" "Axios新闻网"指出，芯片的获取问题已成为中美这两个全球最大经济体之间的"最热摩擦点"。在特朗 普2.0时期，通过"破天荒地"向政府"上贡"（或可称为"交回扣"）在中国销售芯 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is launching downgraded versions of its chips for the Chinese market to comply with U.S. export restrictions, but demand for these chips is declining among Chinese buyers [1][2]. Group 1: Product Demand and Market Response - The RTX6000D chip, tailored for AI inference tasks, is facing low demand as major Chinese tech companies view it as lacking cost-effectiveness [1]. - Chinese companies, including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, are awaiting confirmation on orders for the H20 chip, which Nvidia recently regained sales permission for [1]. - The B30A chip, which significantly outperforms the H20, is still pending export approval, with expectations that it will have six times the performance of H20 at double the price [1][2]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Analyst Opinions - Demand for the RTX6000D is weak, contrasting with previous optimistic forecasts from analysts, such as JPMorgan's prediction of 1.5 million units to be produced in the second half of the year [3]. - Nvidia's spokesperson acknowledged the competitive market but asserted that they provide the best products [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Geopolitical Context - Since October 2022, the U.S. government has implemented strict export controls on advanced chips to China, pushing companies like Nvidia to develop compliant products [5]. - The H20 chip, while slower in training AI models, is competitive in inference tasks, reflecting the challenges Nvidia faces in meeting both regulatory requirements and market expectations [5]. - Nvidia's revenue from the Chinese market was reported at $17 billion, accounting for 13% of its total sales as of January 26 [6]. Group 4: Ongoing Investigations and Future Implications - Nvidia is under investigation by Chinese regulators for alleged antitrust violations, which could impact its operations in the region [9]. - The U.S. government has recently added several Chinese entities to its export control list, indicating a continued tightening of regulations [10]. - Analysts suggest that ongoing U.S. export controls could lead to retaliatory measures from China against American companies, highlighting the tense geopolitical landscape [10].

Trade Relations - The US-China tariff truce has been extended for another 90 days, reducing short-term tariff risks, with a 70% probability of maintaining the current status[1] - The average tariff rate imposed by the US on China has increased from 51.8% in May to 54.9% in August due to additional tariffs on steel and aluminum products[7] - There is a 25% chance that the US-China trade conflict may escalate in the coming months[9] Economic Data - July's economic data showed a continued decline, with retail sales growth slowing down, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors[14] - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 1.6%, the lowest since October 2020, indicating significant challenges in consumption and investment[19] - Exports in July exceeded expectations, suggesting a potentially better outlook for the remainder of the year, although the overall trend remains downward[27] Policy Outlook - The government is expected to introduce an additional fiscal support of 0.5 to 1.0 trillion yuan, with implementation possibly starting by the end of September[51] - Recent fiscal policies focus on accelerating government bond issuance and implementing measures to stimulate domestic demand[43] - Monetary policy adjustments, including potential interest rate cuts, are anticipated by the end of September, contingent on economic performance and external factors[53] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment continues to face downward pressure, with July showing a significant decline in both property sales and prices[24] - Recent policy changes in major cities aim to optimize housing purchase regulations, indicating a new round of support for the real estate sector[55]

Core Viewpoint - Tongfu Microelectronics is a leading company in the packaging and testing industry, providing comprehensive services across various sectors including AI, high-performance computing, 5G, consumer electronics, IoT, automotive electronics, and industrial control [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Tongfu Microelectronics ranks fourth globally and second in mainland China among the top ten OSAT manufacturers, according to the Global Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) ranking by Chip Thought Research Institute for 2024 [1] - The company has established production capacity in multiple locations including Nantong, Hefei, Xiamen, Suzhou, and Penang, Malaysia [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $635.1 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8%, with further growth expected to $718.9 billion in 2025, a 13.2% increase [1] - The advanced packaging market is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.68% from 2023 to 2029, driven by demand in AI, high-performance computing, and smart automotive sectors [3] Group 3: Strategic Partnerships - Tongfu Microelectronics has become AMD's largest packaging supplier, accounting for over 80% of AMD's total orders, following the acquisition of 85% stakes in AMD's Suzhou and Penang facilities [2] - AMD's market share in consumer CPUs and AI GPUs is expected to increase, with AMD's CPU market share reaching 39.6% globally and 50.2% in desktop CPUs as of Q2 2025, surpassing Intel [2] Group 4: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tongfu Microelectronics achieved revenue of 6.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%, indicating steady growth [1] - Profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 1.064 billion, 1.384 billion, and 1.853 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.00%, 30.11%, and 33.90% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the optimistic outlook for the North American CSP Capex progress since 2025, highlighting the increasing importance of domestic computing power chip companies amid supply constraints and the need for self-sufficiency in China [2][4]. Group 1: Semiconductor Industry Trends - The semiconductor industry index has seen a significant increase, with the semiconductor sector rising by 20.6% since early August 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [2]. - The digital chip design sector, led by companies like Cambricon and Haiguang Information, has contributed to this growth with a 28.2% increase in the same period [2]. Group 2: Domestic Computing Power Chip Market - The domestic AI computing power chip market is projected to reach nearly $50 billion, with increasing demands for domestic alternatives due to limited sales of foreign special edition chips [4]. - Companies like Huawei Ascend, Cambricon, and Haiguang Information are providing domestic alternatives to meet the rising demand from internet companies and operators [4]. Group 3: Networking Chips - Ethernet switch chips and PCIe switch chips are identified as core products in the networking and computing sectors, with high demand driven by AI applications [5]. - The high-end Ethernet switch market is dominated by Broadcom and Marvell, while domestic companies are actively developing their products to capture market share [5]. Group 4: Optical Chips - The article notes a significant supply gap in the global market for optical chips, particularly in North America, due to slow expansion by local manufacturers [6][7]. - Domestic manufacturers are leveraging cost advantages and rapid technological iterations to penetrate the high-growth optical market [7]. Group 5: Storage and Power Supply Chips - Domestic storage module manufacturers are advancing in enterprise-level storage solutions, with companies like Jiangbolong and Baiwei Storage entering the supply chains of major cloud service providers [8]. - The power supply sector is undergoing transformation, with a shift towards high-density architectures and increased use of third-generation semiconductors [8]. Group 6: Foundry and Equipment - Domestic foundry leaders are expected to benefit from the trend towards self-sufficiency, with companies like SMIC focusing on advanced process lines [9]. - Semiconductor equipment manufacturers are experiencing positive growth due to increased demand for advanced logic and storage solutions [9]. Group 7: Packaging and Testing - Domestic packaging and testing companies are gaining recognition for their advanced capabilities, particularly in CoWoS packaging, which is crucial for supporting domestic GPU chips [10]. - Collaborations between domestic packaging firms and GPU companies are expected to deepen, enhancing the local semiconductor ecosystem [10]. Group 8: PCB/CCL Market - The domestic PCB and CCL manufacturers are rapidly expanding their market share in high-end segments, driven by the demand for AI computing power chips [11]. - Companies like Shenghong Technology and Shengyi Technology are positioned to benefit significantly from the growth of domestic computing power chip production [11]. Group 9: EDA Market - EDA is identified as a critical bottleneck in the semiconductor supply chain, with domestic companies like Huada Jiutian making strides in integrating their products with leading chip design firms [12]. - The domestic EDA market is expected to see continued growth as companies expand their business through acquisitions [12]. Group 10: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a long-term focus on domestic computing power and self-sufficiency within the semiconductor sector, with potential beneficiaries including GPU, ASIC, and networking chip companies [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 34.00 CNY based on a 50x PE valuation for 2025 [3][6]. Core Views - The company benefits from a stable core customer base and the AI wave, being the primary packaging supplier for AMD, which accounts for over 50% of its revenue in 2024 [11]. - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow to 65 billion USD by 2027, with the company positioned to leverage advanced packaging technologies to enhance performance and reduce costs [11]. - The company is actively investing in capacity expansion, with a total planned investment of 6 billion CNY in 2025 to upgrade existing products and meet the demand for large multi-chip servers and AI products [11]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.68 CNY, 0.86 CNY, and 1.08 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments in revenue and expense rates [3][12]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 22,269 million CNY in 2023 to 34,393 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.6% [5][14]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 243 million CNY in 2023 to 2,369 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [5][14].

Group 1 - The U.S. government is shifting its strategy in the semiconductor industry from tariffs to revenue extraction, targeting companies like NVIDIA and AMD for a 15% revenue share from their sales in China [2][3] - The semiconductor market in China is highly profitable, with NVIDIA and AMD expected to generate a combined revenue of $15.8 billion by 2025, making it a lucrative target for U.S. government revenue [3][4] - The U.S. government's approach is seen as a move towards "state capitalism," with implications for the operational independence of companies and potential impacts on innovation [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. semiconductor industry is facing increased operational costs due to government interventions, which may hinder technological advancements and competitiveness against Asian manufacturers [5][7] - The global semiconductor supply chain is becoming increasingly fragmented, with the U.S., Europe, and China forming distinct blocs, leading to potential inefficiencies and increased costs for U.S. consumers [7][9] - The U.S. government's policies may ultimately undermine its own technological leadership, as companies shift focus from innovation to political lobbying in response to regulatory pressures [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" compared to the market [6] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant volatility due to potential new tariffs announced by the U.S. government, which could reach 200%-300% [1] - The liquid cooling market is expected to grow rapidly, with China's liquid cooling server market projected to reach $2.37 billion in 2024, a 67% increase from 2023 [2] - Consumer-grade DRAM prices have surged by 85%-90% due to a supply-demand imbalance, particularly in industrial and consumer electronics applications [3] - The AI PCB industry is evolving towards higher precision and performance, with advancements in substrate materials and processing technologies [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector has shown strong performance, with a 4.87% increase in the past week, ranking 2nd among 31 sectors [12][31] - The semiconductor sub-sector has seen a 7.07% increase, while the component sub-sector has increased by 9.88% [33] Market Trends - The liquid cooling technology is gaining traction as data center demands increase, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029 [2] - The consumer electronics market is facing a significant price increase in DRAM, with contract prices rising sharply due to high demand and limited supply [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in liquid cooling solutions such as Yingwei Technology and Sihua New Materials, as well as those in the PCB sector like Shengyi Technology and Nanya Technology [13]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is attempting to restart chip sales in China amidst high geopolitical risks, focusing on the H20 chip, which is a downgraded version of its Hopper line designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions on AI hardware [3][4]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position and Financial Impact - Nvidia generated $17.1 billion in revenue from the Chinese market last fiscal year, accounting for 13.1% of its total sales [4]. - Due to restrictions imposed by the Trump administration, Nvidia has been effectively banned from selling products in China, leading to significant financial risks [4]. - CEO Jensen Huang predicts that the Chinese AI market could reach $50 billion within the next two to three years, indicating a strong potential market opportunity [4]. Group 2: H20 Chip Specifications and Market Demand - The H20 chip, while less powerful than Nvidia's top-tier chips, has features that are becoming increasingly critical in the AI race due to U.S. export controls [3][7]. - Nvidia has ordered 300,000 H20 chipsets from TSMC and is committed to increasing production rather than reducing inventory, which is currently estimated at 600,000 to 900,000 units [4][8]. - Despite being an older product, there remains high market demand for the H20 chip, as indicated by Huang's comments [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Competitive Landscape - The Chinese government is reportedly urging local companies to abandon the H20 chip, which could hinder Nvidia's sales efforts [4][6]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the security of Nvidia's chips, with the Chinese government questioning their environmental impact [6]. - The U.S. export controls have inadvertently motivated Chinese companies to develop their own technologies, potentially increasing competition for Nvidia [12]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Strategic Considerations - Nvidia is developing a downgraded version of its upcoming Blackwell product, hoping to gain approval for sales in China [4][12]. - The company faces challenges in maintaining its market position as local Chinese companies seek to create alternatives to Nvidia's CUDA platform [11][13]. - Analysts suggest that while Nvidia's H20 chip may not pose a direct threat to U.S. AI dominance, the long-term sustainability of its sales in China is uncertain due to rising local competition [10][12].

东吴证券近日发布电子行业点评报告：国产算力情绪的积累。从7月下旬至今，国产算 力情绪的积累，很大程度上来自市场对H20能否顺利出货的反复揣测。虽然期间传出H20采 购"或将放开"，但7月31日，国家互联网信息办公室就H20算力芯片漏洞"后门"安全风险约谈 英伟达公司。 7月下旬至今：国产算力情绪的积累。从7月下旬至今，国产算力情绪的积累，很大程度 上来自市场对H20能否顺利出货的反复揣测。虽然期间传出H20采购"或将放开"，但7月31 日，国家互联网信息办公室就H20算力芯片漏洞"后门"安全风险约谈英伟达公司；以及8月1 日，人民日报发表评论《英伟达，让我怎么相信你？》，国家有关部门就H20芯片"后门"问 题启动调查均将矛头指向对H20的安全与应用限制，释放出政策端的审慎与警惕。 8月：中美政策口径均不利于H20落地。8月8日，据《金融时报》，美国商务部工业与安 全局已正式批准英伟达公司向中国出口H20人工智能芯片的许可证申请。一位美国官员表 示，政府也同样开始为AMD的中国芯片颁发许可证。8月10日，央视新闻拟人化笔名"玉渊 谭天"发文解读H20芯片"后门"实现方式，指出美国曾系统设计"片上治理机制"，涵盖 ...