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【招商电子&通信&计算机】国产算力芯片链跟踪报告:DS再燃自主可控热情,关注国产AI算力芯片产业链
招商电子· 2025-08-24 09:52
点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 2025年以来北美CSP Capex进展趋势乐观,中美博弈大背景下H20等芯片销售情况持续反复,国内算力 芯片公司在供给受限和自主化需求背景下重要性持续提升,本土GPU公司2025年销售同比持续增长且 长期趋势乐观,半导体属AI算力和自主可控双重属性叠加领域,长期持续推荐GPU/ASIC/Switch和配 套芯片、先进制造/存储、上游设备/材料/EDA、PCB/CCL等算力产业链。 近期指数表现:以AI类芯片为核心权重的数字芯片板块带动半导体指数整体大幅上涨。 2025年8月初至 今,半导体(SW)行业指数+20.6%,同期电子(SW)行业指数+17.4%,沪深300指数+7.4%;费城半 导体指数/中国台湾半导体指数-0.1%/-2.1%,A股半导体指数大幅跑赢沪深300和国际半导体指数。从细 分板块看,8月初至今以寒武纪、海光信息、芯原股份等为核心权重股的数字芯片设计(+28.2%)板块 贡献了核心增速。 国产算力现状:NV H20等特供版销售情况持续反复,自主可控必要性凸显。 英伟达恢复对华H20供 应。7月14日,英伟达将恢复向中国销售H20,中国担心H20芯片安 ...
通富微电(002156):核心客户稳定,受益AI浪潮
Orient Securities· 2025-08-22 02:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 34.00 CNY based on a 50x PE valuation for 2025 [3][6]. Core Views - The company benefits from a stable core customer base and the AI wave, being the primary packaging supplier for AMD, which accounts for over 50% of its revenue in 2024 [11]. - The global advanced packaging market is expected to grow to 65 billion USD by 2027, with the company positioned to leverage advanced packaging technologies to enhance performance and reduce costs [11]. - The company is actively investing in capacity expansion, with a total planned investment of 6 billion CNY in 2025 to upgrade existing products and meet the demand for large multi-chip servers and AI products [11]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 0.68 CNY, 0.86 CNY, and 1.08 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments in revenue and expense rates [3][12]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 22,269 million CNY in 2023 to 34,393 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.6% [5][14]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase significantly from 243 million CNY in 2023 to 2,369 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [5][14].
赢不了中国了?特朗普换了新打法:美企必须交出在华收入,推行芯片国企化,美国还是不甘心
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 03:40
Group 1 - The U.S. government is shifting its strategy in the semiconductor industry from tariffs to revenue extraction, targeting companies like NVIDIA and AMD for a 15% revenue share from their sales in China [2][3] - The semiconductor market in China is highly profitable, with NVIDIA and AMD expected to generate a combined revenue of $15.8 billion by 2025, making it a lucrative target for U.S. government revenue [3][4] - The U.S. government's approach is seen as a move towards "state capitalism," with implications for the operational independence of companies and potential impacts on innovation [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. semiconductor industry is facing increased operational costs due to government interventions, which may hinder technological advancements and competitiveness against Asian manufacturers [5][7] - The global semiconductor supply chain is becoming increasingly fragmented, with the U.S., Europe, and China forming distinct blocs, leading to potential inefficiencies and increased costs for U.S. consumers [7][9] - The U.S. government's policies may ultimately undermine its own technological leadership, as companies shift focus from innovation to political lobbying in response to regulatory pressures [9]
算力加速AI硬需求,散热/PCB预计持续受益
Guotou Securities· 2025-08-18 01:06
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" compared to the market [6] Core Insights - The semiconductor sector is experiencing significant volatility due to potential new tariffs announced by the U.S. government, which could reach 200%-300% [1] - The liquid cooling market is expected to grow rapidly, with China's liquid cooling server market projected to reach $2.37 billion in 2024, a 67% increase from 2023 [2] - Consumer-grade DRAM prices have surged by 85%-90% due to a supply-demand imbalance, particularly in industrial and consumer electronics applications [3] - The AI PCB industry is evolving towards higher precision and performance, with advancements in substrate materials and processing technologies [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The electronic sector has shown strong performance, with a 4.87% increase in the past week, ranking 2nd among 31 sectors [12][31] - The semiconductor sub-sector has seen a 7.07% increase, while the component sub-sector has increased by 9.88% [33] Market Trends - The liquid cooling technology is gaining traction as data center demands increase, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 46.8% from 2024 to 2029 [2] - The consumer electronics market is facing a significant price increase in DRAM, with contract prices rising sharply due to high demand and limited supply [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in liquid cooling solutions such as Yingwei Technology and Sihua New Materials, as well as those in the PCB sector like Shengyi Technology and Nanya Technology [13]
H20芯片,中美贸易战的焦点
半导体行业观察· 2025-08-16 03:38
Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is attempting to restart chip sales in China amidst high geopolitical risks, focusing on the H20 chip, which is a downgraded version of its Hopper line designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions on AI hardware [3][4]. Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position and Financial Impact - Nvidia generated $17.1 billion in revenue from the Chinese market last fiscal year, accounting for 13.1% of its total sales [4]. - Due to restrictions imposed by the Trump administration, Nvidia has been effectively banned from selling products in China, leading to significant financial risks [4]. - CEO Jensen Huang predicts that the Chinese AI market could reach $50 billion within the next two to three years, indicating a strong potential market opportunity [4]. Group 2: H20 Chip Specifications and Market Demand - The H20 chip, while less powerful than Nvidia's top-tier chips, has features that are becoming increasingly critical in the AI race due to U.S. export controls [3][7]. - Nvidia has ordered 300,000 H20 chipsets from TSMC and is committed to increasing production rather than reducing inventory, which is currently estimated at 600,000 to 900,000 units [4][8]. - Despite being an older product, there remains high market demand for the H20 chip, as indicated by Huang's comments [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Competitive Landscape - The Chinese government is reportedly urging local companies to abandon the H20 chip, which could hinder Nvidia's sales efforts [4][6]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the security of Nvidia's chips, with the Chinese government questioning their environmental impact [6]. - The U.S. export controls have inadvertently motivated Chinese companies to develop their own technologies, potentially increasing competition for Nvidia [12]. Group 4: Future Prospects and Strategic Considerations - Nvidia is developing a downgraded version of its upcoming Blackwell product, hoping to gain approval for sales in China [4][12]. - The company faces challenges in maintaining its market position as local Chinese companies seek to create alternatives to Nvidia's CUDA platform [11][13]. - Analysts suggest that while Nvidia's H20 chip may not pose a direct threat to U.S. AI dominance, the long-term sustainability of its sales in China is uncertain due to rising local competition [10][12].
特朗普政府讨论对英特尔实施国家持股,英特尔一度大涨近9%
美股IPO· 2025-08-14 23:29
Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is negotiating with Intel to potentially invest in the company to support its domestic chip manufacturing efforts, particularly the stalled Ohio factory project, which has led to a significant increase in Intel's stock price [1][3]. Group 1: Government Involvement - The U.S. government is considering purchasing shares in Intel to bolster its domestic manufacturing initiatives, which could improve Intel's financial situation and suggest that CEO Pat Gelsinger will remain in his position [3][5]. - This move is part of a broader trend of direct government intervention in key industries, as seen with other companies like Nvidia and AMD, which have agreed to share a portion of their revenues from China with the U.S. government [6]. Group 2: Intel's Financial Situation - Intel has been struggling with market share and technological leadership, leading to delays in its Ohio factory project, which was initially seen as a key part of its revival strategy [7]. - The project has faced multiple postponements, with the timeline now pushed to the 2030s, and the company has been focusing on financial restructuring under the new CEO [7]. Group 3: Market Reaction - Following the news of potential government investment, Intel's stock price surged, closing up 7.38% at $23.86, with a year-to-date increase of 18% [3][5].
美股异动|超微半导体股价创新高中国出口协议助力上涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 22:47
来源:市场资讯 此外,超微半导体宣布将在2025年11月11日于纽约市举行Financial Analyst Day,这将是一次展示公司的 战略规划及产品路线图的重要活动。这一行动显示出公司对未来的信心,并希望通过明确的战略方向来 进一步吸引投资者的关注。 分析显示,超微半导体通过积极争取政府支持,并规划未来的市场战略,努力提升其在全球芯片市场的 竞争力。这一系列举措不仅有助于巩固公司在国际市场上的地位,也为其股价的持续上涨提供了强有力 的支撑。 结合以上信息,投资者可以在考虑市场风险的同时,关注超微半导体在全球市场拓展中的表现及其在中 国市场的战略调整。长期来看,随着公司产品线的扩充和市场影响力的增强,或许能带来潜在的投资机 会。 在过去的两天,超微半导体经历了令人瞩目的上涨,其股价在8月13日攀升了5.41%,并在近期达到自 2024年7月以来的最高点。这样的市场表现无疑吸引了投资者的关注。 根据近期的报道,超微半导体与英伟达已与美国政府达成协议,允许其对中国市场出口特定芯片。为 此,它们同意上缴其在中国销售收入的15%以获得相关的出口许可。这一协议的达成,意味着超微半导 体未来在中国市场的芯片销售将得到 ...
英伟达上缴15%芯片收入协议成“模板”,美财长称可能扩展到其他行业
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-13 19:54
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's unprecedented revenue-sharing agreement with AI chip giants Nvidia and AMD, requiring them to pay 15% of their sales revenue from China in exchange for export licenses, may serve as a model for other industries in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue Sharing Model - The revenue-sharing model disrupts traditional practices by requiring chip manufacturers to share a portion of their sales revenue from China to obtain export licenses [2]. - Nvidia and AMD have agreed to pay 15% of their sales revenue from specific chips (H20 for Nvidia and MI308 for AMD) to the U.S. government [1][2]. - This approach aligns with the Trump administration's strategy of demanding specific actions from companies, such as investments in the U.S., in exchange for benefits like tariff exemptions [2]. Group 2: National Security Concerns - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra downplayed concerns that the revenue-sharing arrangement poses national security risks, stating that the semiconductor products involved are of a lower tier and do not include advanced chips [3]. - The H20 chip, designed specifically for the Chinese market, is less powerful than Nvidia's mainstream GPU chips and was previously banned for export to certain countries, including China, due to national security concerns [3]. Group 3: Market Impact and Policy Considerations - Allowing Nvidia to sell the H20 chip in China could position the company as a leader in Chinese technology and provide significant revenue opportunities, potentially unlocking billions in sales [5]. - Prior to its ban, Nvidia had projected quarterly sales of over $8 billion for the H20 chip, indicating substantial market potential [5]. - Comments from Trump and Becerra suggest a possible policy reversal compared to the Biden administration's stricter measures, which made it more difficult for China to access advanced chips [5].
中国突然敦促企业避免使用 H20!英伟达的回应来了
程序员的那些事· 2025-08-13 07:26
以下文章来源于算法爱好者 ,作者小蒜翻译 算法爱好者 . 算法是程序员的内功!「算法爱好者」专注分享算法相关文章、工具资源和算法题,帮程序员修炼内 功。 前几天有报道称,白宫已与英伟达和 AMD 达成协议,两家公司将把在华相关收入的 15% 上交,以换取此前 受限制的芯片(分别是 H20 和 MI308)的出口许可证 。 此后,特朗普确认了这项协议,甚至暗示他可能允许英伟达出口更强大的 Blackwell 人工智能处理器,前提是 对其性能进行一定限制。 东大督促本土企业避开 H20,选用国产替代品 尽管获得 H20 许可证对英伟达来说似乎是件好事,但彭博社称,东大"已敦促本土企业避免使用英伟达的 H20 芯片",尤其是用于政府相关用途,这可能对英伟达造成打击。 据报道,东大相关部门在过去几周向企业发出通知,"不鼓励使用这种较落后的半导体"。 彭博社称这些信息来自对"六名以上人士" 的采访。英国《金融时报》周二的一篇类似报道也印证了这一进展, 称东大要求科技公司说明为何订购 H20 芯片而非国产替代品。 报道称,针对国企和私企将 H20 芯片用于政府及国家安全相关工作,有关部门发布了尤为严厉的指导意见。 报道还 ...
特朗普与英特尔CEO的会面说了什么?
3 6 Ke· 2025-08-13 01:21
Group 1 - President Trump praised Intel CEO Chen Liwu as a "successful model" after a meeting on August 11, reversing his previous demand for Chen's resignation [1][2] - Following the meeting, Intel's stock price rose over 3% in pre-market trading, reaching $21.33 [1] - Chen Liwu has been CEO since March 2023 and has initiated cost-cutting measures, including layoffs and scaling back expansion plans [3] Group 2 - Trump previously accused Chen of serious conflicts of interest but has since expressed interest in suggestions Chen will present to his cabinet [2] - The U.S. government is taking a strong stance on the semiconductor industry amid competition with China, as evidenced by recent agreements with Nvidia and AMD to pay a 15% commission on certain chip sales [2] - Chen emphasized the need for time and patience to turn Intel around, acknowledging the challenges ahead [3]