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涤纶行业动态分析:涤纶长丝库存有所去化,需求旺季即将到来
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-08-25 02:59
Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5][6] Core Insights - Recent inventory of polyester filament has decreased, and the demand peak season is approaching. In the first seven months of 2025, the production of polyester filament increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with a July operating rate of 89.2%. As of August 21, the inventory days for POY, DTY, and FDY were 13.8, 27.8, and 22.7 days respectively, showing a decline of 2.3, 0.4, and 0.6 days compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption of polyester filament grew approximately 6.0% year-on-year, and export volume increased by 13.8% [5][9]. The profitability margins for POY, DTY, and FDY against their main raw materials were 1149, 2324, and 1424 CNY/ton respectively. The industry is expected to improve as the "Golden September and Silver October" demand season approaches [5][6]. Summary by Sections Polyester Filament Industry Data - Recent inventory of polyester filament has decreased. In the first seven months of 2025, the production increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with a July operating rate of 89.2%. As of August 21, the inventory days for POY, DTY, and FDY were 13.8, 27.8, and 22.7 days respectively, showing a decline compared to the previous week. The apparent consumption increased by approximately 6.0% year-on-year, and export volume rose by 13.8% [9][5]. Investment Recommendations - The recent decrease in polyester filament inventory and the upcoming demand peak season are expected to enhance the industry's outlook. In the medium to long term, the industry has initiated high-quality development initiatives to prevent "involution" competition. Companies are likely to improve profitability through rational expansion on the supply side and industry self-discipline. The industry rating remains "Overweight" [6][33].