PTA现货价格 MEG内盘 PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 县 8000 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01 2025-01 2026-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-07 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 DTY 现金流 FDY : ( : ) 800 涤短现金流 600- 700 400 600 200 500 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-02023-02024-01024-02024-02024-08025-01025-02025-01026-01 -800 免责声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 张证。本报告不构成个人投资 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [133]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in pricing across various segments of the refining and chemical industry due to fluctuating oil prices. Domestic refining projects reported a price difference of 2,472 CNY/ton, up 357 CNY/ton (17%) week-on-week, while international projects saw a price difference of 2,948 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,148 CNY/ton (64%) [2]. - In the polyester sector, average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY were 8,779 CNY/ton, 9,057 CNY/ton, and 10,093 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 1,421 CNY/ton, 1,525 CNY/ton, and 1,639 CNY/ton. The average profit margins for these products also improved significantly [2]. - The report notes that the PX price averaged 1,284.7 USD/ton, up 258.7 USD/ton week-on-week, with a price difference from crude oil of 575.3 USD/ton, reflecting a 148.0 USD/ton increase [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Refining Index and Project Price Differences - Domestic refining projects reported a price difference of 2,472 CNY/ton, an increase of 357 CNY/ton (16.9%) week-on-week, while international projects reported a price difference of 2,948 CNY/ton, up 1,148 CNY/ton (63.8%) [2][12]. 2.2 Polyester Sector - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY were 8,779 CNY/ton, 9,057 CNY/ton, and 10,093 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week increases. The average profit margins for POY, FDY, and DTY were 311 CNY/ton, 230 CNY/ton, and 321 CNY/ton, reflecting substantial improvements [2][30][31]. 2.3 Refining Sector - Domestic gasoline, diesel, and kerosene prices increased, with gasoline averaging 184 USD/barrel and diesel at 154 USD/barrel, both showing week-on-week increases [2][69]. 2.4 Chemical Sector - The PX price averaged 1,284.7 USD/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 258.7 USD/ton. The report also highlights various chemical products and their price movements, indicating a robust performance in the chemical sector [2][112][118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the weekly data of the large refining and chemical industry, including the price differences of key refining and chemical projects at home and abroad, the performance of the polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, and the market performance of six private large refining companies [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Six Private Refining Companies' Market Performance**: The report tracks the price changes of six private refining companies (Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Orient Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin Fengming) in the past week, month, three - month, one - year, and from the beginning of 2026 to the present. For example, the oil and petrochemical index increased by 8.1% in the past week, while Xin Fengming decreased by 9.3% [8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: The report provides the earnings forecast of six private refining companies from 2024 to 2027, including net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB [8]. - **Oil Price and Refining Price Difference**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week is 82.0 US dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 15.0%. The price difference of domestic refining projects this week is 2064 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.6%, and that of foreign refining projects is 1777 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 57.3% [8]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Price Difference Trends - **Domestic and Foreign Refining Project Price Differences**: The domestic key large refining project price difference this week is 2064 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 122 yuan/ton (- 6%); the foreign key large refining project price difference this week is 1777 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 648 yuan/ton (+ 57%) [2]. 3.2.2 Polyester Sector - **Product Prices and Profits**: The average prices of POY/FDY/DTY this week are 7357/7532/8454 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 279/254/275 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits are 42/ - 107/ - 93 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 78/94/80 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of POY/FDY/DTY is 18.7/25.0/27.6 days respectively, with no week - on - week change. The filament operating rate is 80.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.0 percentage points. The downstream loom operating rate is 22.6%, with a week - on - week increase of 10.9 percentage points [2]. 3.2.3 Refining Sector - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline and diesel in China increased this week [2]. - **US Refined Oil**: The price of gasoline in the US increased this week [2]. 3.2.4 Chemical Sector - **PX**: The average price of PX this week is 1026.0 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 97.4 US dollars per ton. The price difference compared with crude oil is 427.3 US dollars per ton, with a week - on - week increase of 19.4 US dollars per ton. The PX operating rate is 92.1%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.2 percentage points [2].

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical Fiber Industry Industry Overview - The spandex industry is experiencing increasing concentration, with the top five companies accounting for 85% of total capacity. Leading firms like Huafeng Chemical and Xiaoxing Spandex maintain high operating rates above 90%, while smaller companies are often in a semi-shutdown state due to cost disadvantages [1][2][3]. - The nylon 6 industry is characterized by a "tight front and loose back" supply chain. In 2026, the new CPL (Caprolactam) capacity increase is expected to be less than 300,000 tons, while downstream finished products will see significant releases, leading to a supply-demand mismatch that may drive nylon 6 prices to continue rebounding [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - Spandex profitability is significantly better than nylon, with the comprehensive cost of 40D spandex around 20,000 CNY/ton and selling price at 25,000 CNY/ton, indicating a healthy gross margin. Prices are expected to rise above 26,000 CNY/ton before April [1][2][3]. - The nylon 6 yarn market shows severe differentiation, with DTY (Draw Textured Yarn) benefiting from the trend towards finer denier, while FDY (Fully Drawn Yarn) faces industry-wide losses. Total nylon demand is expected to grow by 10%-15% in 2026, driven by emerging overseas markets [1][2][3]. - The current price increases in the industry are primarily driven by cost pressures and downstream "panic stocking," rather than actual end-user orders. A critical window for verifying the real demand recovery is expected around mid-March [1][2][3]. Additional Important Points - Since December 2025, the CPL segment has seen supply constraints through industry self-discipline meetings, keeping capacity utilization below 70%. This has led to a rebound in CPL spot prices from a low of 9,700 CNY/ton to approximately 11,200 CNY/ton [2]. - The global theoretical capacity for spandex is about 1.7 million tons, with China accounting for approximately 1.45 million tons. The top five companies in China hold about 85% of this capacity, with high operating rates among leading firms [2][3]. - The nylon 6 supply chain is expected to face limited expansion pressure in the upstream CPL segment, while downstream finished products will see significant capacity increases, helping to alleviate upstream inventory pressures [3]. - The market is currently characterized by a lack of real orders, with downstream purchasing behavior driven more by fear of rising prices than by actual demand recovery [16][17]. - The spandex price levels are currently around 25,000 CNY/ton, with potential for further increases depending on external factors such as geopolitical events [12][13]. Conclusion - The chemical fiber industry, particularly spandex and nylon, is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, price fluctuations, and shifting demand dynamics. The focus on high-quality production and capacity rationalization is expected to continue shaping the industry's future as it adapts to both domestic and international market pressures [19][20].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA: The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. The PTA industry remains strong, with expected record - high production in January 2024 in China, no Spring Festival production cut plans, and no new capacity throughout the year. PX supply is still tight, and the domestic PTA high - operation rate and the limited negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts support the market [3]. - MEG: After a long - term slump overseas, the reduction of ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. The supply contraction due to production line conversion provides room for price increases [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Changes - **Crude Oil and PTA - related**: INE crude oil price increased from 464.2 yuan/barrel on February 9, 2026, to 476.1 yuan/barrel on February 10, 2026, a rise of 11.9 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC decreased by 48.48 yuan/ton, and PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0275 [3]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 900 to 909, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 297 to 311 [3]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 5192 yuan/ton to 5230 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5115 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 2.8 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 4.8 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 increased by 2004 [3]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 3739 yuan/ton to 3733 yuan/ton, and MEG - naphtha remained unchanged. The MEG内盘 decreased from 3635 yuan/ton to 3623 yuan/ton, and the主力 basis decreased by 3 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 25 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F decreased by 10 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F remained unchanged. The cash - flow of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips all decreased to varying degrees [3]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 85.92%, PTA start - up rate remained at 76.73%, MEG start - up rate increased from 61.67% to 62.36%, and polyester load decreased from 77.49% to 77.26% [3]. 3.3 Production and Sales Situation - The long - filament production and sales rate increased from 12% to 13%, the short - fiber production and sales rate decreased from 41% to 39%, and the polyester chip production and sales rate increased from 22% to 23% [3]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 250 - million - ton PTA device in East China is expected to stop production on February 10, 2026, and the specific restart time is undetermined [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that domestic and international refining projects are experiencing price changes, with domestic projects showing a price difference of 2403 CNY/ton, up by 38 CNY/ton (2% increase) compared to the previous week [2] - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 7071, 7279, and 8179 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 171, 136, and 114 CNY/ton [2] - The average profit for POY, FDY, and DTY is reported at 208, 80, and 80 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week increases of 275, 251, and 237 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - The PX average price this week is 895.6 USD/ton, down by 26.4 USD/ton from the previous week, with a price difference from crude oil of 404.1 USD/ton, which is a decrease of 23.5 USD/ton [2] - The PX operating rate stands at 89.9%, showing no change from the previous week [2] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have risen this week, as have gasoline prices in the United States [2] Group 3 - Relevant listed companies in the private refining and polyester filament sector include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA: The commodity market has fallen significantly. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high - level correction. Due to the Iranian geopolitical risk, there is still a risk in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no Spring Festival production cut plan. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing plants will operate at full capacity to match the growth in polyester demand, providing a solid demand base for PX. The PX supply side remains tight, and the global effective production capacity release is limited. Although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA [3] - MEG: After the long - term downturn of overseas ethylene glycol, the reduction in ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch one of its 900,000 - ton EG production lines to produce polyethylene in mid - February. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 470.8 yuan/barrel on January 30, 2026, to 449.0 yuan/barrel on February 2, 2026, a decrease of 21.80 yuan/barrel [3] - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 1848.6 yuan/ton to 1829.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.58 yuan/ton; PTA/SC increased from 1.5403 to 1.5606, an increase of 0.0202; CFR China PX decreased from 913 to 891, a decrease of 22; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 317 to 295, a decrease of 22; PTA主力期价 decreased from 5270 yuan/ton to 5092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 5280 yuan/ton to 5095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 185.0 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 477.3 yuan/ton to 406.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.4 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased from 467.3 yuan/ton to 403.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63.4 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from (76) to (71), an increase of 5.0; PTA仓单数量 remained unchanged at 103558 [3] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3913 yuan/ton to 3767 yuan/ton, a decrease of 146.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (176.17) yuan/ton to (190.17) yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.0 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 decreased from 3835 yuan/ton to 3722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 increased from - 126 to - 122, an increase of 4.0 [3] Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX开工率 increased from 85.82% to 85.92%, an increase of 0.10% - PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 75.63% - MEG开工率 increased from 60.29% to 62.48%, an increase of 2.19% - 聚酯负荷 decreased from 80.82% to 79.76%, a decrease of 1.06% [3] Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7120; POY现金流 increased from 71 to 267, an increase of 196.0; FDY150D/96F remained unchanged at 7320; FDY现金流 increased from (229) to (33), an increase of 196.0; DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 8210; DTY现金流 increased from (39) to 157, an increase of 196.0; 长丝产销 decreased from 28% to 18%, a decrease of 10% [3] - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6685 to 6545, a decrease of 140; 涤短现金流 increased from (14) to 42, an increase of 56.0; 短纤产销 increased from 41% to 66%, an increase of 25% [3] - **Polyester Chip**: 半光切片 decreased from 5990 to 5860, a decrease of 130.0; 切片现金流 increased from (159) to (93), an increase of 66.0; 切片产销 remained unchanged at 54% [3] Device Maintenance - A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently reducing its load and is expected to stop for maintenance on the 15th - A 1.25 - million - ton PIA plant in South China is expected to stop on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [3]

证券研究报告 大炼化周报： 春节前终端需求减弱叠加工人返乡增多，织机开机率下滑 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2404元/吨，环比-32元/吨（环比-1%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1092元/吨，环比-44元/吨（环比-4%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6900/7143/8064元/吨，环比分别+179/+179/+207元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为-66/-171/-156元/吨，环比分别-37/-37/-18元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 14.0/15.7/20.0天，环比分别+0.1/-0.8/-1.2天，长丝开工率为86.1%，环比-2.5pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率 为42.4%，环比-8. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Recent oil price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical events in the Middle East and the cold wave in the United States. With geopolitical premiums declining and significant inventory builds in crude oil and refined products, oil prices are under pressure. However, the cold wave in the US has boosted overseas natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil, supporting oil prices. Currently, crude oil's own driving forces are limited, and short - term oil prices are still dominated by news. Brent crude should be watched for resistance above $66 per barrel, and attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1,198 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices remained basically flat, with a dull market sentiment and mainly downstream rigid demand procurement. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, and the comprehensive output slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the weekly shipment volume and shipment rate increased month - on - month, with little change in the float glass production line, and the weekly output and industry average capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. The photovoltaic glass had no new kiln shutdowns, and the in - production capacity and capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. Affected by the expected export - grabbing policy, the photovoltaic glass price remained stable, and the inventory continued to decline. Although the in - plant inventory of soda ash decreased overall and the macro sentiment improved recently, in the context of generally weak fundamentals, the short - term soda ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1,064 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices showed regional differentiation, with the overall spot price center rising slightly month - on - month. The profits of glass made from different fuels changed little overall, with the profit of petroleum coke - made glass turning negative. The spot market still mainly had rigid - demand transactions. On the supply side, the daily melting volume continued to increase slightly month - on - month, while the start - up rate and industry average capacity utilization rate remained basically flat. On the demand side, the performance of deep - processing orders was differentiated, and the start - up rate of Low - e glass was still at a relatively weak level. Real estate - related data showed that the industry was still in the adjustment stage. The shipment situation of glass enterprises varied, and the inventory also fluctuated. The overall in - plant inventory remained at a high level. As the Spring Festival approached and the consumption off - season arrived, downstream demand gradually decreased, and manufacturers were more willing to actively reduce inventory. It is expected that the rebound space of the futures price is limited, and the short - term trend will remain weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene continued to improve slightly, with a slight decrease in supply and a continued increase in the downstream comprehensive load. The port inventory decreased, but the absolute level of port inventory remained high, and its own driving force was still limited. Recently, styrene was driven by exports, and its port inventory decreased significantly. Coupled with news of unexpected shutdowns of domestic and foreign plants, the styrene trend was strong, driving up the absolute price of pure benzene. Recently, the profit of styrene has expanded significantly, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. However, styrene's downstream has cut production due to increased losses, and there are expectations of restarting two maintenance plants next week. It is expected that the room for further expansion of the price difference is limited, and there is an expectation of compression. Strategically, the unilateral fluctuation is large, so it is advisable to wait and see; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - **Styrene**: Driven by previous exports, the port inventory of styrene continued to decline, and the circulating supply was limited. The short - term supply - demand situation was temporarily tight. Coupled with the shutdown of the Xuyang styrene plant and the reduction of the load of the Tianjin Bohua plant during the week, the styrene futures price continued to rise. However, currently, the styrene industry has good profits, and the overall start - up is stable, with active forward over - sales. The downstream industry's losses have expanded, and some plants have shut down, actively selling styrene raw materials and downstream product inventories. Overall, the short - term supply - demand of styrene is temporarily tight. Coupled with the overall strength of the chemical sector driven by the inflow of off - industry funds, the short - term increase in styrene is significant. However, there are no new positive factors in the short term, the downstream negative feedback is intensifying, and there are expectations of restarting the Sinopec Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua plants next week. The short - term capital game has intensified, and caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, it is advisable to wait and see unilaterally; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the production in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to a reduction and shutdown, with a shrinking total supply and rising overseas raw material prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively high proportion of European exports have sufficient recent foreign trade orders, and their production has maintained a relatively high - level. Currently, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, but domestic sales have been slow, mostly maintaining rigid - demand sales, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high. In terms of inventory, China's natural rubber social inventory has continued the inventory accumulation trend. In summary, in the short term, driven by the strength of the synthetic rubber market, the natural rubber market has a strong bullish sentiment. However, considering the weak demand, it is expected that there is still significant upward pressure, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [6]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins were jointly driven by the rotation of funds into the chemical sector, geopolitical tensions, and the possible impact of the North American cold wave on supply, and their prices strengthened rapidly at the end of the week. From a static fundamental perspective, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory was destocked. The upstream inventory was low, and the price - holding intention was strong, but agents sold at a loss, the basis weakened significantly, and hedgers had no risk - free positions. Dynamically, for PP, due to many maintenance plans, the supply pressure has been relieved. Currently, the PDH profit is still low, and the production reduction drive is strong. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal plant maintenance. For PE, the maintenance has decreased, and the import is expected to be under pressure. Some full - density plants have switched to LLD production, increasing the pressure on standard products, and the demand has entered the off - season, with the downstream start - up rate weakening. In terms of sentiment, the short - covering demand has been released, and the overall trading volume this week was weaker than last week [9]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chips - **PX**: With high - profit margins, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased production, and currently, the PX load in Asia and China is at a historical high. In January, PX supply remained high. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded. The overall supply - demand of PX and PTA in the first quarter has weakened compared to expectations. It is expected that PX's own driving force will be limited before the Spring Festival. However, as PX trading switches to the March - April period, supported by tight supply - demand in the second quarter, the low - price support for PX is relatively strong. Last week, the cold wave in the US boosted overseas natural gas prices, which had a positive impact on some domestic chemical products (such as styrene, ethylene glycol, and some products with natural gas as raw material). At the same time, off - industry funds flowed into the chemical sector, driving up PX in the short term. However, the PX high point did not reach the mid - December high, and the physical PX market was slow to follow the increase. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern of PX, caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of funds. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton for PX, reduce long positions, and conduct mid - term rolling long - biased operations [11]. - **PTA**: Recently, there have been few changes in PTA plants. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded, the PTA supply - demand has gradually weakened, and the spot basis has weakened. Recently, driven by the large - scale inflow of funds into the chemical sector and the expectation of improved PTA supply - demand in the second quarter, the PTA futures price has increased significantly, and the PTA futures processing margin has expanded significantly. However, due to the large inventory build - up pressure in February in advance, PTA's own driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. Caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance above 5,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce long positions; conduct long - spread operations on the TA5 - 9 spread at low levels [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the near - term, ethylene glycol is still facing significant inventory build - up pressure. Since there are few domestic ethylene glycol plant maintenance plans from January to February, and with the commissioning of new plants such as Ningxia Changyi and BASF, the domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level. At the same time, the polyester plant production cut - back and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand have weakened the demand support for ethylene glycol. From the information of arrived and forecasted shipping schedules, the reduction rate of ethylene glycol imports is slow, and the inventory build - up amplitude from January to February is expected to be high. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve in the second quarter, and inventory is expected to be reduced, mainly due to the shutdown of multiple large - scale domestic ethylene glycol plants and the spring maintenance of coal - based ethylene glycol plants, which will significantly reduce the supply expectation. Strategically, conduct long - spread operations on the EG5 - 9 spread at low levels; sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high levels [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak. Currently, the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream orders are gradually decreasing, and the number of yarn mills reducing or stopping production will increase around the end of the month. Recently, the sharp increase in the cost side has driven up the short - fiber price, and some downstream enterprises have followed up with replenishment. However, as the demand side weakens, the downstream is mostly waiting and seeing after the short - fiber price increase. The market will enter a digestion stage later. Overall, the absolute price driving force of short - fiber before the festival is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PF03 is the same as that of PTA; the PF futures processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short the spread when it is high [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Recently, the implementation of maintenance plans for multiple polyester bottle - chip plants has been carried out one after another. In particular, a 1.2 - million - ton - per - year polyester bottle - chip plant in Jiangyin has been shut down since mid - January and will be under maintenance until March. There are still maintenance plans at the end of January. The domestic supply is expected to decrease significantly, and recently, the plants have continued to reduce inventory, supporting the processing margin. At the same time, the demand will weaken seasonally. With both supply and demand decreasing, it is expected that the absolute price and processing margin of bottle chips from January to February will still follow the cost - side fluctuations. Strategically, pay attention to the support around 6,200 yuan/ton for PR2603; the processing margin of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton; sell out - of - the - money put options PR2603 - P - 6200 at high levels [11]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inland plant inventory has decreased, but the high production volume restricts the rebound space, and the demand is expected to decline in the future. Although the port inventory has slightly decreased, the MTO demand is weak (many plants are under maintenance or have reduced loads), and the inventory reduction amplitude of the 05 contract has significantly weakened, suppressing the price rebound height. Currently, there are two key variables in the market: one is the reduction of imported methanol arrivals under the background of low methanol production in Iran. As of the latest data, the shipment volume from Iran is 350,000 tons; the other is the risk premium brought by geopolitical factors [13][14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the prices of caustic soda in the mainstream regions continued to decline. The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. Low - price transactions frequently occurred during the week, impacting the market. The unloading of products by the main downstream enterprises was still difficult, and the order transactions were light. From the supply side, there were sporadic short - term shutdowns of chlor - alkali plants last week, but some chlor - alkali plants that had previously reduced loads resumed production, increasing the operating load rate. High - level operation combined with difficult sales led to continued inventory accumulation of caustic soda last week. On the demand side, the unloading situation of the two main downstream industries was poor. Under the strong chlorine situation, enterprises had no incentive to reduce production, and the problem of product backlogs at downstream enterprises continued. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the caustic soda price is under pressure in the short term and is still expected to decline. This week, the East China region faces monthly order contracts, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been alleviated. Coupled with the weak price transmission in the main regions, it is expected that the caustic soda market will continue to be weak [15]. - **PVC**: Last week, the domestic PVC price fluctuated after an increase, supported by positive economic expectations and bullish long - term expectations for commodities. The short - term increase in commodity prices in the market slightly pushed up the spot price. From the supply side, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased last week, and some enterprises had unplanned production cuts. However, the overall supply remained at a high level. The downstream production demand gradually weakened before the Spring Festival, and the foreign trade exports continued to be good but decreased in volume month - on - month. The inventory accumulation pressure before the festival in the industry continued. Currently, the macro - economic expectations are relatively strong, and combined with the strong PVC exports, the PVC price trend is relatively firm. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday, the industry inventory is accumulating rapidly, and combined with the weak support from raw material calcium carbide, the expected significant increase in price is limited. In the short term, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern due to the cost support at the bottom and the supply - demand pressure at the top. It is expected that the PVC operating rate will continue to decline this week. Currently, some downstream enterprises are having pre - festival promotions, and the operating rate has increased. The export is expected to remain strong. However, considering that some downstream enterprises have started to take holidays one after another and the price of raw material calcium carbide is falling, it is expected that the PVC market will remain stable [15]. Urea - On January 23, the urea futures price fluctuated and closed higher, and the spot price increased slightly overall. Some regions raised their ex - factory quotes, but the downstream acceptance of the price was limited, and there were still some orders at low prices. New order transactions were relatively cautious. There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week. As the previously shut - down plants gradually resume production, the daily urea output fluctuates around the high level of 200,000 tons, and the short - term supply of goods is sufficient. In terms of demand, there is still some agricultural demand in the Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangdong regions. The compound fertilizer industry is expected to reduce its operating rate due to the decrease in finished product sales volume. The operating rate of the board industry gradually decreases in the twelfth lunar month, and the overall industrial demand for urea has weakened. Urea inventory continued to decline this week, and the inventory reduction rhythm was faster than in previous years. This week, urea enterprises have successively launched the Spring Festival order - receiving plan, and it is expected that the inventory will be further reduced. Overall, the urea price is still restricted by the weak supply - demand situation, and the market transactions need to increase. However, the agricultural demand in some regions and the inventory reduction expectation have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate in a wide range in the short term. The main urea contract should be watched in the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream demand and the inventory reduction rhythm [16]. LPG - No specific views on the LPG market trend and investment strategies are provided in the LPG report. It only presents price, inventory, and operating rate data [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On January 23, Brent crude was at $64.06 per barrel, down $1.82 or 2.84% from January 22; WTI was at $59.36 per barrel, up $1.71 or 2.88

Group 1 - The price spread for domestic key refining projects this week is 2439 CNY/ton, down 102 CNY/ton (4% decrease) compared to the previous week [1] - The price spread for foreign key refining projects this week is 1102 CNY/ton, down 58 CNY/ton (5% decrease) compared to the previous week [1] - The average PX price this week is 893.7 USD/ton, up 3.0 USD/ton compared to the previous week, with a price spread against crude oil of 422.9 USD/ton, down 18.1 USD/ton [2] Group 2 - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester sector this week are 6657 CNY/ton, 6879 CNY/ton, and 7779 CNY/ton, respectively, with week-on-week increases of 107 CNY/ton, 129 CNY/ton, and 29 CNY/ton [1] - The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are -61 CNY/ton, -179 CNY/ton, and -179 CNY/ton, with week-on-week changes of +79 CNY/ton, +93 CNY/ton, and +27 CNY/ton [1] - The inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 12.8 days, 17.4 days, and 23.2 days, with week-on-week changes of +1.1 days, -2.1 days, and -1.4 days [1] - The operating rate for long filaments is 90.3%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.1 percentage points [1]