【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为7071/7279/8179元/吨，环比分别+171/+136/+114元/ 吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为208/80/80元/吨，环比分别+275/+251/+237元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行 业库存为12.7/15.8/19.4天，环比分别-1.3/+0.1/-0.6天，长丝开工率为83.5%，环比-2.2pct。下游方面，本 周织机开工率为42.4%，环比-8.8pct，织造企业原料库存为8.7天，环比+0.1天，织造企业成品库存为 26.0天，环比-2.7天。 【炼油板块】国内成品油:本周汽油/柴油价格上升。美国成品油:本周美国汽油价格上升。 东吴证券近日发布大炼化周报：国内成品油:本周汽油/柴油价格上升。美国成品油:本周美国汽油价格上 升。本周PX均价为895.6美元/吨，环比-26.4美元/吨，较原油价差为404.1美元/吨，环比-23.5美元/吨， PX开工率为89.9%，环比+0.0pct。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2403元/吨，环比+38元/吨(环比 +2 ...

ITG国贸期货 装置检修动态:华东一套360万吨PTA装置目前降负中,预计15日开始按计划停车检修。华南一套125万吨PIA装置预计16日停车, 初步预计3月下重启。 PTA现货价格 -PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 -MEG内盘 县青 8000 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 5000 700 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01 2025-01 2026-01 2025-10 2025-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-08 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 DTY现金流 FDY 现金流 800 涤短现金流 600- 切片址 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023-02023-02024-02024-02024-02024-02024-09025-080 ...

证券研究报告 大炼化周报： 春节前终端需求减弱叠加工人返乡增多，织机开机率下滑 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2404元/吨，环比-32元/吨（环比-1%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1092元/吨，环比-44元/吨（环比-4%）。 ◼ 【聚酯板块】本周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为6900/7143/8064元/吨，环比分别+179/+179/+207元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为-66/-171/-156元/吨，环比分别-37/-37/-18元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 14.0/15.7/20.0天，环比分别+0.1/-0.8/-1.2天，长丝开工率为86.1%，环比-2.5pct。下游方面，本周织机开工率 为42.4%，环比-8. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Recent oil price trends are mainly influenced by geopolitical events in the Middle East and the cold wave in the United States. With geopolitical premiums declining and significant inventory builds in crude oil and refined products, oil prices are under pressure. However, the cold wave in the US has boosted overseas natural gas prices and increased demand for heating oil, supporting oil prices. Currently, crude oil's own driving forces are limited, and short - term oil prices are still dominated by news. Brent crude should be watched for resistance above $66 per barrel, and attention should be paid to changes in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1,198 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices remained basically flat, with a dull market sentiment and mainly downstream rigid demand procurement. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate slightly decreased, and the comprehensive output slightly declined but remained at a relatively high level. On the demand side, the weekly shipment volume and shipment rate increased month - on - month, with little change in the float glass production line, and the weekly output and industry average capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. The photovoltaic glass had no new kiln shutdowns, and the in - production capacity and capacity utilization rate were flat month - on - month. Affected by the expected export - grabbing policy, the photovoltaic glass price remained stable, and the inventory continued to decline. Although the in - plant inventory of soda ash decreased overall and the macro sentiment improved recently, in the context of generally weak fundamentals, the short - term soda ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1,064 yuan/ton on January 23. Spot prices showed regional differentiation, with the overall spot price center rising slightly month - on - month. The profits of glass made from different fuels changed little overall, with the profit of petroleum coke - made glass turning negative. The spot market still mainly had rigid - demand transactions. On the supply side, the daily melting volume continued to increase slightly month - on - month, while the start - up rate and industry average capacity utilization rate remained basically flat. On the demand side, the performance of deep - processing orders was differentiated, and the start - up rate of Low - e glass was still at a relatively weak level. Real estate - related data showed that the industry was still in the adjustment stage. The shipment situation of glass enterprises varied, and the inventory also fluctuated. The overall in - plant inventory remained at a high level. As the Spring Festival approached and the consumption off - season arrived, downstream demand gradually decreased, and manufacturers were more willing to actively reduce inventory. It is expected that the rebound space of the futures price is limited, and the short - term trend will remain weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [3]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene continued to improve slightly, with a slight decrease in supply and a continued increase in the downstream comprehensive load. The port inventory decreased, but the absolute level of port inventory remained high, and its own driving force was still limited. Recently, styrene was driven by exports, and its port inventory decreased significantly. Coupled with news of unexpected shutdowns of domestic and foreign plants, the styrene trend was strong, driving up the absolute price of pure benzene. Recently, the profit of styrene has expanded significantly, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene has widened significantly. However, styrene's downstream has cut production due to increased losses, and there are expectations of restarting two maintenance plants next week. It is expected that the room for further expansion of the price difference is limited, and there is an expectation of compression. Strategically, the unilateral fluctuation is large, so it is advisable to wait and see; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - **Styrene**: Driven by previous exports, the port inventory of styrene continued to decline, and the circulating supply was limited. The short - term supply - demand situation was temporarily tight. Coupled with the shutdown of the Xuyang styrene plant and the reduction of the load of the Tianjin Bohua plant during the week, the styrene futures price continued to rise. However, currently, the styrene industry has good profits, and the overall start - up is stable, with active forward over - sales. The downstream industry's losses have expanded, and some plants have shut down, actively selling styrene raw materials and downstream product inventories. Overall, the short - term supply - demand of styrene is temporarily tight. Coupled with the overall strength of the chemical sector driven by the inflow of off - industry funds, the short - term increase in styrene is significant. However, there are no new positive factors in the short term, the downstream negative feedback is intensifying, and there are expectations of restarting the Sinopec Quanzhou and Tianjin Bohua plants next week. The short - term capital game has intensified, and caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, it is advisable to wait and see unilaterally; short the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the production in northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam is transitioning to a reduction and shutdown, with a shrinking total supply and rising overseas raw material prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively high proportion of European exports have sufficient recent foreign trade orders, and their production has maintained a relatively high - level. Currently, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, but domestic sales have been slow, mostly maintaining rigid - demand sales, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high. In terms of inventory, China's natural rubber social inventory has continued the inventory accumulation trend. In summary, in the short term, driven by the strength of the synthetic rubber market, the natural rubber market has a strong bullish sentiment. However, considering the weak demand, it is expected that there is still significant upward pressure, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [6]. Polyolefins - Polyolefins were jointly driven by the rotation of funds into the chemical sector, geopolitical tensions, and the possible impact of the North American cold wave on supply, and their prices strengthened rapidly at the end of the week. From a static fundamental perspective, both supply and demand decreased, and inventory was destocked. The upstream inventory was low, and the price - holding intention was strong, but agents sold at a loss, the basis weakened significantly, and hedgers had no risk - free positions. Dynamically, for PP, due to many maintenance plans, the supply pressure has been relieved. Currently, the PDH profit is still low, and the production reduction drive is strong. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the implementation of marginal plant maintenance. For PE, the maintenance has decreased, and the import is expected to be under pressure. Some full - density plants have switched to LLD production, increasing the pressure on standard products, and the demand has entered the off - season, with the downstream start - up rate weakening. In terms of sentiment, the short - covering demand has been released, and the overall trading volume this week was weaker than last week [9]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chips - **PX**: With high - profit margins, domestic and foreign PX plants have increased production, and currently, the PX load in Asia and China is at a historical high. In January, PX supply remained high. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded. The overall supply - demand of PX and PTA in the first quarter has weakened compared to expectations. It is expected that PX's own driving force will be limited before the Spring Festival. However, as PX trading switches to the March - April period, supported by tight supply - demand in the second quarter, the low - price support for PX is relatively strong. Last week, the cold wave in the US boosted overseas natural gas prices, which had a positive impact on some domestic chemical products (such as styrene, ethylene glycol, and some products with natural gas as raw material). At the same time, off - industry funds flowed into the chemical sector, driving up PX in the short term. However, the PX high point did not reach the mid - December high, and the physical PX market was slow to follow the increase. In the short - term weak supply - demand pattern of PX, caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of funds. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance around 7,500 yuan/ton for PX, reduce long positions, and conduct mid - term rolling long - biased operations [11]. - **PTA**: Recently, there have been few changes in PTA plants. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the polyester production cut - back has expanded, the PTA supply - demand has gradually weakened, and the spot basis has weakened. Recently, driven by the large - scale inflow of funds into the chemical sector and the expectation of improved PTA supply - demand in the second quarter, the PTA futures price has increased significantly, and the PTA futures processing margin has expanded significantly. However, due to the large inventory build - up pressure in February in advance, PTA's own driving force is limited before the Spring Festival. Caution should be exercised regarding the current increase. Strategically, pay attention to the resistance above 5,400 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to reduce long positions; conduct long - spread operations on the TA5 - 9 spread at low levels [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand of ethylene glycol shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the near - term, ethylene glycol is still facing significant inventory build - up pressure. Since there are few domestic ethylene glycol plant maintenance plans from January to February, and with the commissioning of new plants such as Ningxia Changyi and BASF, the domestic ethylene glycol supply remains at a high level. At the same time, the polyester plant production cut - back and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand have weakened the demand support for ethylene glycol. From the information of arrived and forecasted shipping schedules, the reduction rate of ethylene glycol imports is slow, and the inventory build - up amplitude from January to February is expected to be high. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is expected to improve in the second quarter, and inventory is expected to be reduced, mainly due to the shutdown of multiple large - scale domestic ethylene glycol plants and the spring maintenance of coal - based ethylene glycol plants, which will significantly reduce the supply expectation. Strategically, conduct long - spread operations on the EG5 - 9 spread at low levels; sell out - of - the - money put options EG2605 - P - 3800 at high levels [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern of short - fiber is weak. Currently, the short - fiber supply remains at a high level. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream orders are gradually decreasing, and the number of yarn mills reducing or stopping production will increase around the end of the month. Recently, the sharp increase in the cost side has driven up the short - fiber price, and some downstream enterprises have followed up with replenishment. However, as the demand side weakens, the downstream is mostly waiting and seeing after the short - fiber price increase. The market will enter a digestion stage later. Overall, the absolute price driving force of short - fiber before the festival is weak, and it mainly follows the raw material price fluctuations. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PF03 is the same as that of PTA; the PF futures processing margin fluctuates between 800 - 1,000 yuan/ton, and it is advisable to short the spread when it is high [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Recently, the implementation of maintenance plans for multiple polyester bottle - chip plants has been carried out one after another. In particular, a 1.2 - million - ton - per - year polyester bottle - chip plant in Jiangyin has been shut down since mid - January and will be under maintenance until March. There are still maintenance plans at the end of January. The domestic supply is expected to decrease significantly, and recently, the plants have continued to reduce inventory, supporting the processing margin. At the same time, the demand will weaken seasonally. With both supply and demand decreasing, it is expected that the absolute price and processing margin of bottle chips from January to February will still follow the cost - side fluctuations. Strategically, pay attention to the support around 6,200 yuan/ton for PR2603; the processing margin of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton; sell out - of - the - money put options PR2603 - P - 6200 at high levels [11]. Methanol - The methanol market has weak supply and demand. The inland plant inventory has decreased, but the high production volume restricts the rebound space, and the demand is expected to decline in the future. Although the port inventory has slightly decreased, the MTO demand is weak (many plants are under maintenance or have reduced loads), and the inventory reduction amplitude of the 05 contract has significantly weakened, suppressing the price rebound height. Currently, there are two key variables in the market: one is the reduction of imported methanol arrivals under the background of low methanol production in Iran. As of the latest data, the shipment volume from Iran is 350,000 tons; the other is the risk premium brought by geopolitical factors [13][14]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda**: Last week, the prices of caustic soda in the mainstream regions continued to decline. The weekly average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 633 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36%. Low - price transactions frequently occurred during the week, impacting the market. The unloading of products by the main downstream enterprises was still difficult, and the order transactions were light. From the supply side, there were sporadic short - term shutdowns of chlor - alkali plants last week, but some chlor - alkali plants that had previously reduced loads resumed production, increasing the operating load rate. High - level operation combined with difficult sales led to continued inventory accumulation of caustic soda last week. On the demand side, the unloading situation of the two main downstream industries was poor. Under the strong chlorine situation, enterprises had no incentive to reduce production, and the problem of product backlogs at downstream enterprises continued. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the caustic soda price is under pressure in the short term and is still expected to decline. This week, the East China region faces monthly order contracts, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been alleviated. Coupled with the weak price transmission in the main regions, it is expected that the caustic soda market will continue to be weak [15]. - **PVC**: Last week, the domestic PVC price fluctuated after an increase, supported by positive economic expectations and bullish long - term expectations for commodities. The short - term increase in commodity prices in the market slightly pushed up the spot price. From the supply side, the operating load rate of the domestic PVC industry slightly decreased last week, and some enterprises had unplanned production cuts. However, the overall supply remained at a high level. The downstream production demand gradually weakened before the Spring Festival, and the foreign trade exports continued to be good but decreased in volume month - on - month. The inventory accumulation pressure before the festival in the industry continued. Currently, the macro - economic expectations are relatively strong, and combined with the strong PVC exports, the PVC price trend is relatively firm. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises are gradually on holiday, the industry inventory is accumulating rapidly, and combined with the weak support from raw material calcium carbide, the expected significant increase in price is limited. In the short term, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern due to the cost support at the bottom and the supply - demand pressure at the top. It is expected that the PVC operating rate will continue to decline this week. Currently, some downstream enterprises are having pre - festival promotions, and the operating rate has increased. The export is expected to remain strong. However, considering that some downstream enterprises have started to take holidays one after another and the price of raw material calcium carbide is falling, it is expected that the PVC market will remain stable [15]. Urea - On January 23, the urea futures price fluctuated and closed higher, and the spot price increased slightly overall. Some regions raised their ex - factory quotes, but the downstream acceptance of the price was limited, and there were still some orders at low prices. New order transactions were relatively cautious. There are no planned maintenance enterprises this week. As the previously shut - down plants gradually resume production, the daily urea output fluctuates around the high level of 200,000 tons, and the short - term supply of goods is sufficient. In terms of demand, there is still some agricultural demand in the Jiangsu, Anhui, and Guangdong regions. The compound fertilizer industry is expected to reduce its operating rate due to the decrease in finished product sales volume. The operating rate of the board industry gradually decreases in the twelfth lunar month, and the overall industrial demand for urea has weakened. Urea inventory continued to decline this week, and the inventory reduction rhythm was faster than in previous years. This week, urea enterprises have successively launched the Spring Festival order - receiving plan, and it is expected that the inventory will be further reduced. Overall, the urea price is still restricted by the weak supply - demand situation, and the market transactions need to increase. However, the agricultural demand in some regions and the inventory reduction expectation have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate in a wide range in the short term. The main urea contract should be watched in the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream demand and the inventory reduction rhythm [16]. LPG - No specific views on the LPG market trend and investment strategies are provided in the LPG report. It only presents price, inventory, and operating rate data [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: On January 23, Brent crude was at $64.06 per barrel, down $1.82 or 2.84% from January 22; WTI was at $59.36 per barrel, up $1.71 or 2.88

Group 1 - The price spread for domestic key refining projects this week is 2439 CNY/ton, down 102 CNY/ton (4% decrease) compared to the previous week [1] - The price spread for foreign key refining projects this week is 1102 CNY/ton, down 58 CNY/ton (5% decrease) compared to the previous week [1] - The average PX price this week is 893.7 USD/ton, up 3.0 USD/ton compared to the previous week, with a price spread against crude oil of 422.9 USD/ton, down 18.1 USD/ton [2] Group 2 - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester sector this week are 6657 CNY/ton, 6879 CNY/ton, and 7779 CNY/ton, respectively, with week-on-week increases of 107 CNY/ton, 129 CNY/ton, and 29 CNY/ton [1] - The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are -61 CNY/ton, -179 CNY/ton, and -179 CNY/ton, with week-on-week changes of +79 CNY/ton, +93 CNY/ton, and +27 CNY/ton [1] - The inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 12.8 days, 17.4 days, and 23.2 days, with week-on-week changes of +1.1 days, -2.1 days, and -1.4 days [1] - The operating rate for long filaments is 90.3%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.1 percentage points [1]

Group 1 - The price spread for domestic key refining projects this week is 2439 CNY/ton, a decrease of 102 CNY/ton (down 4%) compared to the previous week [1] - The price spread for foreign key refining projects this week is 1102 CNY/ton, a decrease of 58 CNY/ton (down 5%) compared to the previous week [1] - The average price of PX this week is 893.7 USD/ton, an increase of 3.0 USD/ton compared to the previous week, with a price spread against crude oil of 422.9 USD/ton, a decrease of 18.1 USD/ton [2] Group 2 - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY in the polyester sector this week are 6657 CNY/ton, 6879 CNY/ton, and 7779 CNY/ton, with increases of 107 CNY/ton, 129 CNY/ton, and 29 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly average profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are -61 CNY/ton, -179 CNY/ton, and -179 CNY/ton, with increases of 79 CNY/ton, 93 CNY/ton, and 27 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [1] - The inventory levels for POY, FDY, and DTY are 12.8 days, 17.4 days, and 23.2 days, with changes of +1.1 days, -2.1 days, and -1.4 days respectively compared to the previous week [1] Group 3 - The operating rate for long filaments is 90.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous week [1] - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene have decreased this week [2] - In the US, gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene prices have increased this week [2] Group 4 - Relevant listed companies in the private refining and polyester filament sector include Hengli Petrochemical (600346), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233), and Xin Fengming (603225) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost - end of polyester has strong support, and leading filament producers announced further production cuts. The domestic key large - scale refining and chemical projects' spread this week is 2439 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 102 yuan/ton (- 4%); the foreign key large - scale refining and chemical projects' spread is 1102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 58 yuan/ton (- 5%) [2]. - In the polyester sector, the weekly average prices of POY/FDY/DTY are 6657/6879/7779 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 107/129/29 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits are - 61/- 179/- 179 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 79/93/27 yuan/ton. The inventory levels are 12.8/17.4/23.2 days respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 1.1/- 2.1/- 1.4 days. The filament operating rate is 90.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 pct [2]. - In the refining sector, domestic refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) declined this week, while US refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) increased [2]. - In the chemical sector, the average PX price this week is 893.7 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 dollars/ton. The spread compared to crude oil is 422.9 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 18.1 dollars/ton. The PX operating rate is 90.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 pct [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining and Chemical Weekly Data Briefing 3.1. Six Private Refining and Chemical Companies' Performance - **Stock price changes**: As of January 16, 2026, the petroleum and petrochemical index had a 1 - week change of - 0.3%, a 1 - month change of 8.3%, a 3 - month change of 13.1%, a 1 - year change of 15.1%, and a change of 11.7% since the beginning of 2025. Among private refining and chemical companies, Rongcheng Petrochemical had corresponding changes of 0.3%, 23.2%, 21.3%, 31.4%, and 30.0%; Hengli Petrochemical had 1.0%, 24.3%, 39.0%, 63.8%, and 58.4%; Hengyi Petrochemical had - 0.3%, 27.1%, 58.0%, 72.1%, and 68.0%; Tongkun Co., Ltd. had 4.2%, 27.8%, 35.2%, 55.6%, and 57.5%; Xin Fengming had 3.1%, 26.8%, 34.4%, 76.8%, and 88.1% [8]. - **Profit forecasts**: For 2024A - 2027E, Hengli Petrochemical's归母 net profit is expected to be 7.0, 8.0, 9.3, and 10.7 billion yuan respectively; Rongcheng Petrochemical's is expected to be 7, 19, 29, and 41 billion yuan respectively; Xin Fengming's is expected to be 1.1, 1.1, 1.7, and 2.3 billion yuan respectively; Tongkun Co., Ltd.'s is expected to be 1.2, 2.0, 3.5, and 4.0 billion yuan respectively; Hengyi Petrochemical's is expected to be 2, 4, 7, and 8 billion yuan respectively [8]. 3.2. Oil Prices and Refining and Chemical Spreads - **International crude oil**: The average price of Brent crude oil this week is 64.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 dollars/barrel (4.7%), and a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. In yuan/ton, it is 3300.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 143.4 yuan/ton (4.5%), and a year - on - year decrease of 22.2%. The average price of WTI crude oil is 60.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.2 dollars/barrel (3.8%), and a year - on - year decrease of 23.5%. In yuan/ton, it is 3085.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 108.5 yuan/ton (3.6%), and a year - on - year decrease of 25.4% [8]. - **Refining and chemical spreads**: The spread of domestic refining and chemical projects this week is 2438.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 102.3 yuan/ton (- 4.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The spread of foreign refining and chemical projects is 1102.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 58.4 yuan/ton (- 5.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 19.6% [8]. 3.3. Polyester Sector - **Upstream products**: PX average price is 893.7 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 dollars/ton, with a spread of 422.9 dollars/ton compared to crude oil, a week - on - week decrease of 18.1 dollars/ton, and an operating rate of 90.5%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 pct; MEG average price is 3699.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.1 yuan/ton, with a spread of 398.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 126.3 yuan/ton, inventory of 73.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.0 tons, and an operating rate of 64.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 pct; PTA average price is 5047.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20.7 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 160.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.9 yuan/ton, inventory of 3.6 days, no week - on - week change, and an operating rate of 77.4%, a week - on - week increase of 2.3 pct [10]. - **Polyester filaments**: POY average price is 6657.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 107.1 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 60.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 79.1 yuan/ton, and inventory of 12.8 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 days; FDY average price is 6878.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 128.6 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 179.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 93.3 yuan/ton, inventory of 17.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1 days, an operating rate of 90.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 pct, and a sales - to - production ratio of 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 19.7 pct; DTY average price is 7778.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28.6 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 179.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 26.9 yuan/ton, and inventory of 23.2 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 days [10]. - **Short fibers and bottle chips**: Polyester short - fiber average price is 6512.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20.0 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of 9.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.3 yuan/ton, inventory of 5.9 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 days, an operating rate of 90.7%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 pct, and a sales - to - production ratio of 63.1%, a week - on - week increase of 4.9 pct. Polyester bottle - chip average price is 6098.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 68.6 yuan/ton, with a single - ton net profit of - 132.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 53.5 yuan/ton [10]. - **Downstream products**: The inventory of weaving is 28.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.7 tons, and the operating rate is 54.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0 pct [10]. 3.4. Refining Sector - **China**: Gasoline average price is 146.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 82.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 3.2 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 7526.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25.4 yuan/ton, with a spread of 4225.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 168.8 yuan/ton. Diesel average price is 123.3 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 58.8 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 4.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 6334.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70.7 yuan/ton, with a spread of 3034.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 214.1 yuan/ton. Jet fuel average price is 102.1 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 37.6 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 3.0 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 5246.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11.8 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1946.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 155.2 yuan/ton [10]. - **US**: Gasoline average price is 75.7 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 11.2 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 3873.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 148.6 yuan/ton, with a spread of 573.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 yuan/ton. Diesel average price is 92.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 28.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4731.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 171.2 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1430.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 27.8 yuan/ton. Jet fuel average price is 82.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.3 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 17.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4198.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 162.0 yuan/ton, with a spread of 897.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.5 yuan/ton [10]. - **Europe**: Gasoline average price is 84.9 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 20.4 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 1.6 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4362.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 59.5 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1061.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 83.9 yuan/ton. Diesel average price is 86.6 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 22.1 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4449.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 148.6 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1149.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.2 yuan/ton. Jet fuel average price is 98.5 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 4.0 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 34.0 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 5061.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 200.5 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1760.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 57.1 yuan/ton [10]. - **Singapore**: Gasoline average price is 71.8 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 7.4 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 3673.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 62.2 yuan/ton, with a spread of 373.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 81.2 yuan/ton. Diesel average price is 81.1 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.8 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 16.6 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4147.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 136.0 yuan/ton, with a spread of 847.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton. Jet fuel average price is 82.6 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.0 dollars/barrel, with a spread of 18.2 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9 dollars/barrel; in yuan/ton, it is 4228.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 95.6 yuan/ton, with a spread of 928.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 47.8 yuan/ton [10]. 3.5. Chemical Products Sector - **EVA**: EVA photovoltaic material average price is 9400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton, with a spread of 6099 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 107 yuan/ton; EVA foaming material average price is 9300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a spread of 5999 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 43 yuan/ton [10]. - **Polyethylene**: LDPE average price is 9207 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 207 yuan/

新凤鸣所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学纤维-涤纶。所属概念板块包括：新材料、长三角一体化、增持 回购、融资融券、中盘等。 截至1月9日，新凤鸣股东户数1.82万，较上期增加0.17%；人均流通股83421股，较上期减少0.17%。 2025年1月-9月，新凤鸣实现营业收入515.42亿元，同比增长4.77%；归母净利润8.69亿元，同比增长 16.53%。 分红方面，新凤鸣A股上市后累计派现17.33亿元。近三年，累计派现7.20亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，新凤鸣十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第九大流通 股东，持股1673.14万股，为新进股东。 责任编辑：小浪快报 1月16日，新凤鸣盘中下跌2.01%，截至10:05，报20.52元/股，成交6142.74万元，换手率0.19%，总市值 312.84亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出371.73万元，特大单买入0.00元，占比0.00%，卖出104.15万元，占比 1.70%；大单买入1073.53万元，占比17.48%，卖出1341.10万元，占比21.83%。 新凤鸣今年以来股价涨5.45%，近5个交易日涨3.01%，近20 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PTA market experiences a tug - of - war between cost support and falling demand, with a slight price increase; PX market is at a critical juncture where speculative sentiment intersects with fundamental tension; MEG price is under supply pressure, but may be supported by policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Comparison - INE crude oil price dropped from 445.6 yuan/barrel on January 13th to 445.5 yuan/barrel on January 14th [2] - PTA - SC decreased from 1901.8 yuan/ton to 1878.5 yuan/ton, and PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.5873 to 1.5802 [2] - CFR China PX decreased from 899 to 897, and PX - naphtha spread decreased from 341 to 336 [2] - PTA main futures price decreased from 5140 yuan/ton to 5116 yuan/ton, while the spot price increased from 5060 to 5075 yuan/ton [2] - PTA spot processing fee increased from 302.1 yuan/ton to 311.5 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 382.1 to 367.5 yuan/ton [2] - MEG main futures price increased from 3815 yuan/ton to 3867 yuan/ton; the domestic price increased from 3686 to 3711 yuan/ton [2] 2. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 87.87%, PTA start - up rate at 77.40%, MEG start - up rate increased slightly from 61.12% to 61.15%, and polyester load remained at 87.80% [2] 3. Product Price and Cash - Flow Changes - POY150D/48F price increased from 6650 to 6715, and its cash - flow improved from - 161 to - 117 [2] - FDY150D/96F price increased from 6870 to 6920, and its cash - flow improved from - 441 to - 412 [2] - DTY150D/48F price increased from 7795 to 7830, and its cash - flow improved from - 216 to - 202 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6520 to 6510, and its cash - flow decreased from 59 to 28 [2] - Semi - bright chip price decreased from 5780 to 5770, and its cash - flow decreased from - 131 to - 162 [2] 4. Product Sales Situation - Long - filament sales remained at 46%, short - fiber sales decreased from 93% to 68%, and chip sales increased from 50% to 79% [2] 5. Device Maintenance Dynamics - Sanfangxiang's 500,000 - ton device is restarting, and a 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance; some devices of Xinjiang Yipu, Jinyu, Tiansheng, and Guxiandao are either under maintenance or have reduced loads [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market-A" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that major polyester filament manufacturers have initiated a new round of production cuts since late December, with plans to further expand reductions as the Spring Festival approaches, effectively responding to market changes and improving profitability [1][2] - The report anticipates a favorable "golden March and silver April" period, with a projected industry load of around 71%-72% during the Spring Festival, marking a three-year low, and a significant reduction in inventory levels [2] - The overall fundamentals of the filament industry are improving, with supply growth expected to be moderate and demand gradually recovering due to consumption stimulus policies and external factors [3] Summary by Sections 1. Polyester Filament: A Key Link in the Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester filament is a widely used synthetic fiber with characteristics such as durability, elasticity, and resistance to corrosion, widely applied in textiles and various industrial products [14] 2. Industry Self-Regulation and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The polyester filament industry has established a mature self-regulation mechanism, with two rounds of collaborative pricing strategies implemented to stabilize prices and manage production effectively [20][21] - The supply peak has passed, with future capacity additions concentrated in major companies, and the industry is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation through 2026-2027 [27] 3. Sufficient Profit Elasticity and Expectations for "Golden March and Silver April" - The report indicates that polyester filament has strong profit elasticity, with significant profit increases observed during previous upturns, leading to improved profitability for key companies [30]