因新开产蛋鸡数量仍处高位，且老母鸡出栏量增幅不及预期，9月份国内在产蛋鸡存栏量延续增势。受 此影响，国内鸡蛋价格继续弱势下跌。 10月在产蛋鸡存栏量或下降但需求也将走弱 根据影响产蛋鸡存栏量的重要指标补栏量、出栏量、出栏日龄、上月存栏基数等，推断10月在产蛋鸡存 栏量单纯理论值或在13.67亿只左右，环比变化不大，但老母鸡出栏仍存不确定性，或导致实际存栏与 理论值有所差异。10月份新开产的蛋鸡为今年6月份补栏的鸡苗，6月份全国蛋鸡补栏量下降至8100万只 左右，环比减9%左右，因此新增产能或逐步减少。 另外，依据9月末老母鸡出栏日龄500天推断，10月份待出栏的老母鸡为16-17个月前补栏的鸡苗，理论 出栏量约在8200万只左右，因此理论存栏量或小幅下降。但是由于9月份老母鸡出栏量增幅不及预期， 展望10月，虽然在产蛋鸡存栏量预计将下降，但随着气温回落，蛋鸡产蛋率与蛋重逐步恢复，鸡蛋实际 供应压力依然较大。加之节后需求进入传统淡季，在供强需弱的格局下，蛋价重心或明显下移。 9月在产蛋鸡存栏量继续增加蛋价同比跌幅明显 据卓创资讯监测数据显示，9月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量约为13.68亿只，环比增幅0.22%，同比增幅 ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 天气压制现货反弹，盘面重回区间震荡 ——鸡蛋周报2025-06-23 作 者：刘四奎 执业证书编号：F3033884 交易咨询编号：Z0011291 联 系 方 式：0371-58620082 分析师微信 公司官方微信 期货回顾 2440 3589 3172 3189 3312 2953 2701 2936 3618 3662 3382 3420 3553 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 鸡蛋期现货市场分布（元/500kg） -1149 -732 -749 -872 -513 -261 -496 -1178 -1222 -942 -980 -1113 -1400 -1200 -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 基差 基差 • 期货： 鸡蛋期货上周整体表现强劲，突破上涨 为主，继续升水现货，现货企稳上涨带来 的情绪远远大于实际的支撑。后续现货依 旧受制于天气和阶段供需压力，但是期货 开始开启了周期转换，阶段性的筑底成功。 2300 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main trend in egg futures is a downward movement, with the primary contract experiencing a decline of 1.14% to 2853.00 yuan, indicating ongoing pressure on egg prices due to high supply and cautious demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Jiangsu Futures indicates that short-term production capacity has not been cleared, leading to pressure on egg prices. Despite potential support from increased downstream purchasing as the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, high supply levels and adverse weather conditions in southern regions are likely to limit demand [2] - Ruida Futures notes that the overall decline in egg prices is slowing, with strong corn prices providing cost support. However, high levels of egg-laying hen stocks and substantial new production pressure may restrict price increases, leading to a cautious market outlook [3] - Southwest Futures suggests that while supply may continue to increase year-on-year, pre-festival stocking could provide some support. The firm recommends considering short-selling after potential price rebounds [4]