1. Report Information - Report Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Industry: Eggs [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price in the main production areas has stabilized, with the average price at 2.90 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas at 3.14 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The 04 contract fell 0.67%. [8] - After the holiday, the egg price showed a seasonal decline. After the market opened, the prices in the production areas basically fell below 3 yuan. However, the futures market performed relatively well. It is expected that the near - month contracts will fluctuate in a range, and the far - month contracts need to pay attention to the situation of replenishment and culling. [8] - The current egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level in the same period of history, but the replenishment momentum is weak, which may ease the medium - term production capacity pressure. [9] 3. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Egg 2603 | 2976 | 2974 | 2983 | 2940 | 2947 | - 29 | - 0.97% | 17952 | 18617 | - 13437 | | Egg 2604 | 3261 | 3265 | 3272 | 3220 | 3239 | - 22 | - 0.67% | 161235 | 166035 | - 10367 | | Egg 2605 | 3439 | 3444 | 3445 | 3395 | 3413 | - 26 | - 0.76% | 71888 | 134935 | 12278 | [7] Operation Suggestions - Near - month contracts: Treat them as range - bound for now. The basis of the 03 and 04 contracts is at a medium level in the same period of previous years. The sharp decline before the Spring Festival has already factored in the bearish expectations, but the rise of futures needs the support of spot prices. [8] - Far - month contracts: The contracts in the first half of the year, especially the 06 contract in the rainy season, should be treated bearishly on rallies. The contracts in the second half of the year can be treated optimistically due to the unfalsifiable expectation of inventory reduction. [8] 4. Industry News Inventory As of the end of December 2025, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China was about 1.344 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.00%. [9] Replenishment In December 2025, the monthly output of egg - laying chicks in sample enterprises was about 39.59 million, basically the same as that in November. The total replenishment volume from September to December 2025 was about 157.49 million, significantly less than about 182.14 million in the same period of the previous year, which may ease the medium - term production capacity pressure. [9] Culling - Culling volume: In the three weeks as of January 29, the culling volumes were 16.03 million, 16.27 million, and 17.33 million respectively, remaining at a relatively high level but slightly declining. [18] - Culling age: As of January 29, the average culling age was 493 days, 3 days later than the previous week and 9 days later than the previous month. [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of eggs is about to realize seasonal price increases, which will drive the futures market downward. The near - term contracts may have weak fluctuations due to valuation support, while the far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations, but the path to achieve profits is uncertain. The report maintains a short - selling strategy [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices rose first and then stabilized or slightly declined. Pre - holiday stocking demand was released, but as the festival approached, market sales slowed down. Egg prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. Next week, egg prices may stabilize first and then decline [11][20]. - **Restocking and Culling**: In December, the number of restocked chickens increased by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, but decreased by 13.9% year - on - year. The restocking sentiment has improved slightly. The culling of chickens has slowed down, and the average age of chickens has stopped falling and rebounded to 493 days [11][33]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, slightly lower than expected. It is expected that the inventory will peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decrease of 4.3% [11][38]. - **Demand**: Egg prices have reached a phased high, and traders' participation has become more cautious. As the Spring Festival approaches, the sales of eggs will shift from external to internal sales, and attention should be paid to the digestion of internal sales in production areas [11][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: For near - term contracts, adopt a wait - and - see or range - trading approach; for the 05 - 07 contracts, sell on rebounds. The recommended profit - to - loss ratio is 2:1, and the recommended cycle is 1.5 months [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Domestic egg prices rose first and then stabilized or declined slightly last week. The market supply was normal, with a slight shortage of small eggs and low inventory. Next week, egg prices may stabilize first and then decline [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: Affected by the increase in spot prices, the basis has been significantly repaired. After the spot price rebounded, the near - term contracts were relatively strong, and the spread was suitable for positive arbitrage [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: As egg prices rebounded from a low level and farming became profitable, farmers were reluctant to sell, leading to an increase in culled chicken prices and the average age of chickens [26]. - **Chick and Pullet Prices**: With the improvement of market expectations, the current chick prices have started to rise, indicating a slight improvement in restocking sentiment [33]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Restocking**: In December, the restocking volume increased by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, but decreased by 13.9% year - on - year. The restocking sentiment has improved slightly [33]. - **Culled Chicken Sales**: Due to the previous low egg prices and farming losses, the culling of chickens increased, but during the pre - Spring Festival stocking season, egg prices rose more than expected, and the culling of chickens slowed down. The average age of chickens has rebounded to 493 days [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, slightly lower than expected. It is expected that the inventory will peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decrease of 4.3% [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - Egg prices have reached a phased high, and traders' participation has become more cautious. As the Spring Festival approaches, the sales of eggs will shift from external to internal sales, and attention should be paid to the digestion of internal sales in production areas [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year but rising month - on - month. After the increase in spot prices, the farming profit has significantly recovered to the normal seasonal level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56].