01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 弱情绪延续 鸡蛋月报 2025/10/10 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：9月份国内蛋价冲高回落，走势符合季节性，月初受开学等消费题材刺激，市场走货转好，中旬后市场风控情绪增加，同时供压不 减，蛋价从高位回落，国庆期间备货消费不及预期，库存积累，价格回落至今，且幅度明显高于预期；具体看，黑山大码蛋价月涨0.1元至 2.8元/斤，月内最高3.6元/斤，馆陶月落0.29元至2.49/斤，月内最高3.6元/斤，销区回龙观月落0.38元至3.05元/斤，东莞月涨0.13元至 2.94元/斤；当前淘鸡价格低迷，局部出现加速淘汰，但鸡龄仍高达499天，超淘并未发生，叠加新开产仍处增势，整体供应规模依旧偏大， 消费受制于经济环境表现一般，市场囤货情绪较弱，预计10月份前期蛋价以低位弱势整理为主，后期受备货影响有小幅反弹空间。 ◆ 补栏和 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 09 月 29 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3352 | 3354 | -2 | 01-05 | -43 | -33 | -10 | | JD05 | 3395 | 3387 | 8 | 05-09 | -408 | -409 | 1 | | JD09 | 3803 | 3796 | 7 | 09-01 | 451 | 442 | 9 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.14 | 1.14 | 0.00 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.54 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is currently facing high supply pressure due to a high inventory of laying hens, new egg - laying hens from previous replenishments, and an increase in egg - laying rates as the temperature drops. Although there was a demand recovery during the pre - holiday stocking period, with the approach of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the pre - holiday stocking is ending, and the market is slowing down, causing the spot price to decline slightly. The high - capacity pressure persists, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient, resulting in a price decline again. The trading strategy is still mainly short - biased, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Strategy**: The trading strategy for eggs is still mainly short - biased, and attention should be paid to the number of old hens being culled [6]. - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures fluctuated and closed lower. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 3036 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 76 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: High supply pressure persists. Although there was a short - term demand recovery during the pre - holiday stocking period, as the pre - holiday stocking ends, the market slows down, and the spot price declines slightly, leading to a lack of upward momentum in the futures price [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures 11 contract fluctuated and closed lower. The position volume was 315,276 lots, a decrease of 82,779 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 20,779, with a slight increase in net short positions compared to last week's - 18,354 [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 26 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3619 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 127 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 11 - contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at 583 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of egg futures was reported at - 318 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is at a relatively low level compared to the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of September 25, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was 5.05 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment**: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 114.42, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The national new - chick index was 73.35, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44% [39]. - **Laying - hen Culling Index and Culling Age**: As of August 31, 2025, the national laying - hen culling index was 93.61, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The national culling age of hens was 510 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of September 25, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2364.9 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2960 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of September 19, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was + 0.17 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of September 19, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 9.34 yuan per kilogram [56]. - **Monthly Egg Exports**: In August 2025, China's total egg exports were 13,121.03 tons, an increase of 1281.43 tons compared to the same period last year (an increase of 10.82%), and an increase of 264.92 tons compared to the previous month [62]. 3.4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: Only a chart of price - to - earnings ratio changes was provided, but no specific analysis content [64].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 09 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3372 | 3354 | 18 | 01-05 | -17 | -38 | 21 | | JD05 | 3389 | 3392 | -3 | 05-09 | 169 | 142 | 27 | | JD09 | 3220 | 3250 | -30 | 09-01 | -152 | -104 | -48 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.58 | 1.57 | 0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.14 | 1.14 | -0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1. ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 09 月 23 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3362 | 3366 | -4 | 01-05 | -33 | -66 | 33 | | JD05 | 3395 | 3432 | -37 | 05-09 | 275 | 239 | 36 | | JD09 | 3120 | 3193 | -73 | 09-01 | -242 | -173 | -69 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.58 | 1.58 | 0.00 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 0.04 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.54 | 1.55 | -0. ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall egg supply is relatively high compared to previous years. High inventory, low costs, and weak demand have pushed egg prices to their lowest levels in recent years. The recent rebound in egg prices is mainly due to pre - holiday stocking, but as the stocking ends, egg prices are starting to decline. The enthusiasm for culling laying hens decreased as egg prices rebounded [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3366, down 52 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3432, down 38; JD09 remained unchanged at 3193 [3]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was - 66, down 14; the 05 - 09 spread was 239, down 38; the 09 - 01 spread was - 173, up 52 [3]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.11, down 0.02. Other ratios also showed minor changes [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in production areas was 3.67 yuan/jin, down 0.04 yuan/jin; the average price in sales areas was 3.75 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. Prices in most regions were stable, with some fluctuations in a few areas [3]. - **Culled Hen Prices**: The average price of culled hens was 4.55 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day. Prices in most regions increased [3]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2358 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean粕 was 3012 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.55 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin [3]. - **Profits**: The profit per laying hen was 30.93 yuan, down 1.04 yuan from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Inventory**: In August, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.365 billion, an increase of 0.09 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. It is estimated that the inventory from September to December 2025 will be 1.363 billion, 1.356 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.352 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In August, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 39.81 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 8% [7]. - **Culling Volume**: In the week of September 18, the culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 17.61 million, a decrease of 6% from the previous week. The average culling age was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [7]. - **Sales Volume**: In the week of September 18, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 7685 tons, an increase of 5.2% from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory Days**: As of September 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.02 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.99 days, a decrease of 0.04 days [8]. - **Profits**: As of September 18, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.45 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.3 yuan/jin; the expected profit per laying hen was 2.97 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/hen from the previous week [8]. 3.5 Trading Logic The current high supply, low demand, and low egg prices have led to an initial increase in culling enthusiasm. However, as egg prices rebounded, the culling willingness decreased. The recent slowdown in market sales is due to the end of pre - holiday stocking [10]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: The short - term downward space may be limited, and it is recommended to choose the right opportunity [11]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishments is large, resulting in sufficient egg supply. The decrease in temperature has increased the laying rate of hens, further exacerbating the supply pressure. However, due to pre - Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking, the recent purchase volume of traders has increased, and the market demand has shown signs of recovery, which has supported the egg price and the futures price. But the high - capacity pressure still exists and restricts the futures price. It is recommended to conduct short - term, fast - in - and - fast - out trading and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the egg futures fluctuated and closed higher. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 3112 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 72 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: High egg supply due to high inventory and increased laying rate; demand recovery due to festival stocking; futures price supported by spot price but restricted by high - capacity pressure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term fast - in - and - fast - out trading, and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 11 contract fluctuated and closed higher, with a position of 398,055 lots, a decrease of 11,258 lots compared with the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 18,354, and the net short position decreased slightly compared with last week [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3746 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 153 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week. The basis between the active 11 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 634 yuan/ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 11 - 1 spread of eggs was - 306 yuan/500 kilograms, which was at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Spot Prices**: As of September 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.55 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.98 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%; the national new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Supply Side - Culling Index and Age**: As of July 31, 2025, the national culled laying hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%; the national culling age was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of September 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2950 yuan/ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of September 12, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.02 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan/kg [55]. - **Prices of Laying Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of September 12, 2025, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 2.6 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.22 yuan/kg [59]. - **Egg Exports**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons compared with the same period last year (an increase of 7.87%), and a decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [64]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: There is a chart of its price - to - earnings ratio change, but no specific analysis content is provided [66].

Core Viewpoint - The significant rebound in near-term futures is supported by the recent rise in spot prices, market expectations for excessive culling in late September and October, and technical factors such as gap openings and previous support levels, aided by speculative funds [5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In September, while production capacity peaks are expected, the reduction in capacity will take time, and only excessive culling in October and November can improve the current oversupply situation [5]. - The government has been promoting capacity reduction in the pig industry since June, but the effects have not been significant. For eggs, while no explicit measures have been announced, environmental policies may restrict the expansion of large-scale poultry farms [6]. - The sentiment for culling has slowed down recently, and if spot prices exceed expectations, market confidence may recover, potentially leading to slower culling rates and exacerbating supply pressures post-holiday [6]. Spot Price Trends - Since September, spot prices have been driven up by demand from schools and food processing companies preparing for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with the average price of eggs in major production areas rising to 3.58 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.43 yuan/kg from the beginning of the month [9]. - The inventory levels in production and circulation have decreased, with production inventory at 0.45 days and circulation inventory at 0.73 days as of September 12 [9]. Production and Culling Data - As of the end of August 2025, the number of laying hens increased by 2% month-on-month and 7% year-on-year, reaching approximately 1.3172 billion [18]. - The sales of chick orders have decreased, indicating a slowdown in replenishment sentiment since June, with expectations for a slight decline in the number of laying hens in September [18]. - The average culling price for hens was 4.65 yuan/kg as of September 12, down 0.08 yuan/kg from the beginning of the month, with culling volumes showing some divergence in data but generally indicating a faster culling pace [24]. Profitability and Market Sentiment - As of September 9, the feed price was 2.71 yuan/kg, and the profit from egg production was 0.05 yuan/kg, indicating a recovery in profitability due to rising egg prices [23]. - The sentiment in the market is cautious, with expectations of a potential increase in culling volumes around the Mid-Autumn Festival, depending on the spot price trends [24]. Futures Market Analysis - The near-term and main contracts are closely aligned due to the delivery of eggs in October, with recent spot price rebounds leading to a narrowing basis [31]. - The market sentiment appears bullish, but the underlying supply-demand conditions may not support sustained price increases, indicating a potential for price corrections [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current egg production is sufficient due to high laying - hen inventory and the pressure of newly - opened laying hens from previous replenishment, along with the continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Although the demand has slightly increased during the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking and school openings, it is still weak year - on - year. The short - term demand has limited support for prices, and the spot price is at the lowest level of the same period this year. However, the continuous losses of the breeding end may accelerate the culling of old hens and reduce the enthusiasm for replenishment. The futures price has rebounded from a low level, but the momentum for continuous upward movement is insufficient under high - production pressure. The recommended strategy is to sell on rebounds and pay attention to the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: This week, the egg futures price first rose and then fell. The closing price of the 2510 contract was 2964 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 25 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: High laying - hen inventory, new production pressure, and cold - storage egg release lead to sufficient supply. Although demand has slightly recovered, it is still weak year - on - year. The short - term demand support for prices is weak, and the spot price is at a low level. Pay attention to the culling of old hens [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a strategy of selling on rebounds and focus on the culling volume of old hens [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The 10 - contract of egg futures first rose and then fell. The position was 349,551 lots, a decrease of 144,211 lots compared with the previous week. The net position of the top 20 decreased slightly [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3330 yuan/500 kilograms, an increase of 214 yuan/500 kilograms compared with the previous week. The basis between the active 10 - contract futures price and the spot average price was 366 yuan/ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread**: The 10 - 1 spread of egg futures was - 389 yuan/500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of September 4, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.85 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 5.12 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - Side Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 113.18, a month - on - month increase of 1.13%; the new - chick index was 78.4, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% [39]. - **Culling Indicators**: As of July 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 99.2, a month - on - month decrease of 4.70%; the average age of culled hens was 512 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2360.59 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3000 yuan/ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.21 yuan/hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.76 yuan/kg [55]. - **Prices of Laying - Hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of August 29, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.0 yuan/chick, and the average price of culled hens was 9.66 yuan/kg [60]. - **Egg Exports**: In May 2025, the total egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, an increase of 927.30 tons (7.87%) compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 81.14 tons compared with the previous month [65]. 3.4 Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: Information about its price - earnings ratio change is provided, but no specific analysis is given [67].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 09 月 02 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3384 | 3320 | 64 | 01-05 | -65 | -47 | -18 | | JD05 | 3449 | 3367 | 82 | 05-09 | 644 | 562 | 82 | | JD09 | 2805 | 2805 | 0 | 09-01 | -579 | -515 | -64 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.55 | 1.52 | 0.03 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 0.02 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.53 ...