联系方式： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3376 | 3383 | -7 | 01-05 | -99 | -99 | 0 | | JD05 | 3475 | 3482 | -7 | 05-09 | 559 | 531 | 28 | | JD09 | 2916 | 2951 | -35 | 09-01 | -460 | -432 | -28 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 | 1.57 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.5 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3383 | 3434 | -51 | 01-05 | -99 | -78 | -21 | | JD05 | 3482 | 3512 | -30 | 05-09 | 531 | 592 | -61 | | JD09 | 2951 | 2920 | 31 | 09-01 | -432 | -514 | 82 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.57 | 1.58 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.09 | 1.11 | -0.03 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | ...

鸡蛋周报：需求不及预期 蛋价偏弱运行 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 第二部分周度数据追踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 246/206/207 68/84/105 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周淘汰鸡价格继续回落，周内蛋价跌势较大，养殖端对后市信心受挫，受情绪面影响，养殖端出栏积极性增加， 淘汰鸡价格本周 下跌为主。 鸡蛋主 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an egg daily report on August 21, 2025, by researcher Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3437, down 53 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3506, up 48; JD09 closed at 2879, down 121 [3] - The 01 - 05 spread was -69, down 101; the 05 - 09 spread was 627, up 169; the 09 - 01 spread was -558, down 68 [3] - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, down 0.02; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.56, up 0.02; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.30, down 0.04 [3] - The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, up 0.02; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 0.94, down 0.02 [3] Spot Market - The main producing area average price was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.04; the main selling area average price was 3.39 yuan/jin, unchanged [3][6] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.25 [3][8] Profit Calculation - The profit per bird was 3.82 yuan, down 2.50 from the previous day [3] - The average price of culled chickens was 4.64 yuan/jin, down 0.25; the average price of chicken chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04; the price of egg - laying hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [3] - The average price of corn was 2382 yuan, down 3; the average price of bean meal was 3124 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.60 yuan, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The national mainstream egg price remained stable today, with some regions showing price stability and others slight fluctuations [6] - In July, the national laying hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase [7] - In July, the monthly chick output of sample enterprises was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying hen inventory is 1.356 billion, 1.360 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14, the national main producing area culled chicken slaughter volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week [7] - The average culling age of culled chickens was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 11.92 yuan/bird, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply - side pressure is still obvious, with the laying hen inventory at a high level in the same period over the years, and the cold - stored eggs stored in the market are flowing out, putting pressure on the market price. The short - term bearish logic holds without large - scale over - culling [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting at high prices [10] - Arbitrage: Short near - month contracts before the Spring Festival and long far - month contracts after the Spring Festival [10] - Options: Sell call options [10]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Supply - side pressure is significant and demand is average, causing price declines. Cold - storage eggs are hitting the market after a previous price rebound, and the current spot price increase is below expectations. It is advisable to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 3.08 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.39 yuan/jin, also down 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price is currently stable [6] - In July, the national in - lay hen inventory was 1.356 billion, up 0.016 billion from the previous month and 6.1% year - on - year. The monthly hatch of layer chicks in sample enterprises was 39.98 million, down 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year. The estimated in - lay hen inventory from August to November 2025 is 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 14th, the weekly slaughter volume of layer hens in the main production areas was 14.42 million, up 5% from the previous week. The average slaughter age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of August 14th, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,605 tons, up 1% from the previous week [8] - As of August 7th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, down 0.17 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.03 days, down 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous week. On August 8th, the expected profit per layer was 11.92 yuan/feather, down 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national price of culled hens dropped, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.89 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [9] 2. Trading Logic - Supply - side pressure and average demand lead to price drops. The release of cold - storage eggs after a price rebound impacts prices. The current spot price increase is disappointing, so it's recommended to short the 10 and 11 contracts on price rallies [10] 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting on price rallies [11] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [11] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3468, down 24 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3450, down 18; JD09 closed at 2983, down 115 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 18, down 6; 05 - 09 spread closed at 467, up 97; 09 - 01 spread closed at -485, down 91 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.60, unchanged; 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - The average price of eliminated chickens was 5.15 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 8.54 yuan, up 0.45 yuan from the previous day [3] - The average price of corn was 2391 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3114 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production areas was 3.1 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged. The national mainstream price remained stable [6] - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in July was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 8 to 14, the national main production area's egg - laying hen elimination volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average elimination age was 506 days, unchanged [7] - As of August 14, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 7, the average inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was 11.92 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - The national price of eliminated chickens decreased, with the main production area's average price at 5.15 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply pressure is obvious and the demand is average, leading to price decline. After the previous rebound of egg prices, cold - storage eggs were gradually released, impacting the price. Although the spot price has risen, it is lower than expected. Short positions should be considered for the 10 and 11 contracts [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider short positions on rallies [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [10] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes 15 charts, covering egg prices in main production and sales areas, chicken - seedling prices, eliminated - chicken prices, feed costs, laying - hen inventory, spreads, and breeding profits [12][16][20][22][27][29][38][40]

银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 鸡蛋周报：需求有所改善 蛋价有所稳定 第二部分周度数据追踪 GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分逻辑分析及交易策略 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 内容摘要 2 GALAXYFUTURES 227/82/4 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ◼ 现货分析 ◼ 供给分析 ◼ 成本分析 ◼ 需求分析 ◼ 交易策略 鸡蛋现货分析 本周鸡蛋主产区均价2.97元/斤，较上周五上涨0.11元/斤，主销区均价3.2元/斤，较上周五相比上涨0.12元/斤。本周主产区价格整 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side pressure is still obvious and the demand is weak, leading to price declines. After the previous rebound in egg prices, the release of cold - storage eggs has impacted the market. Although the September contract is a peak - season contract, the current spot price increase is below expectations. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Information - Today, the average price in the main production areas is 2.99 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, while the average price in the main sales areas is 3.2 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day. The national mainstream prices are temporarily stable [6] - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. The monthly hatch of laying - hen chicks in July was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. Based on previous replenishment data, the estimated laying - hen inventories from August to November 2025 are approximately 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 1st to 7th, the national main - production - area egg - chicken culling volume was 13.38 million, an 11% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age was 506 days, 1 day more than the previous week [7] - As of August 7th, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,529 tons, a 4.6% decrease from the previous week [7] - As of August 7th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.08 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.23 days, an increase of 0.12 days from the previous week [7] - As of August 7th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.23 yuan/jin from the previous week. On August 1st, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was 13.94 yuan/hen, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national culled - chicken price dropped, with the main - production - area average price at 5.34 yuan/jin, a 0.15 - yuan/jin decrease from the previous trading day [8] 3.2 Trading Logic - The obvious supply - side pressure and general demand have led to price drops. The release of cold - storage eggs after the previous price rebound has impacted the price. Although the September contract is a peak - season contract, the current spot price increase is below expectations [9] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [10] - Options: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [10] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes 15 charts showing various indicators such as egg spot prices in main production and sales areas, egg - chicken chick prices, culled - chicken prices, feed costs, laying - hen inventories, price spreads, and profits [11][12][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market is currently characterized by high overall production capacity, with a slowdown in recent new replenishment. The supply - side pressure is gradually weakening, while the demand has improved but the marginal support is weakening, requiring new demand from tourism and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. - The cost of feed has slightly declined, with the current feed cost around 2.5 yuan per catty and the comprehensive breeding cost around 2.8 yuan per catty. Egg prices have returned above the feed breeding cost seasonally, and profits have improved. - The spot market will still receive seasonal demand support after a short - term release of the decline sentiment, but the futures premium is obvious, and it is difficult to follow the spot rebound. As the delivery month approaches, the main 09 contract may decline to repair the basis, and attention should be paid to reverse spread opportunities. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Review - Last week, egg futures maintained a weak oscillation, and the overall weakness remained unchanged. The biggest contradiction in the market is the large basis, with obvious selling pressure and weak willingness to take delivery. [6] Spot Review - Last week, egg spot prices maintained a weak adjustment and stabilized over the weekend. The sales areas started to sell at low prices, and the market began to accept the goods. After this round of adjustment, the spot prices will be supported by the start of school for students and Mid - Autumn Festival deep - processing stocking. Attention should be paid to the rebound height. [13] Supply - Newly - added capacity: From August to November 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from April to July 2025, and the newly - added capacity will decline significantly. - Elimination capacity: From August to November 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from March to June 2024. The data shows a high elimination volume, but the current data indicates obvious delayed elimination. - Laying hen inventory: The inventory data continues to increase slightly, but it will start to decrease in September. The newly - added capacity is stable with a slight decline, and the elimination is relatively slow. The overall supply pressure still exists. [16] Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens is 5.51 yuan per catty (- 0.27). The elimination volume has significantly decreased. The peak season and a slight price rebound limit the enthusiasm for elimination. The average elimination age is 502 days, remaining unchanged, and the overall age has reached the normal range, but the elimination of backward production capacity is not ideal. [19] Seasonal Factors - It is the seasonal peak season. On the production area side, the inventory pressure in the production areas has increased, high temperatures have reduced the laying rate and increased costs. On the consumption side, the arrival of the tourism peak season combined with deep - processing has improved the overall demand. [21] Cost & Profit - Cost side: Corn prices are running at a high level, and soybean meal prices have steadily declined. The overall cost remains volatile. The current feed cost is around 2.5 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.8 yuan per catty. - Breeding profit: Recently, egg prices have risen, and the spot price has returned above the feed cost. However, the overall comprehensive breeding profit is still in a loss, showing a seasonal bottom - rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback on backward production capacity. [27] Capital and Market - Capital has increased at a high level, and market competition has intensified. Bears believe that the production capacity is high, there is seasonal suppression, and the futures premium over the spot still has room to decline. Bulls believe that the valuation is low, and the seasonality is about to turn from weak to strong, making it valuable to go long. Currently, the reality is stronger than expectations, with obvious futures premium over the spot and obvious selling pressure in the market, waiting for the cycle conversion. [30] Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis is negative, and the overall futures are at a premium. The current basis is running at a low level, waiting for the basis to strengthen with the arrival of the peak season, which is more likely to be achieved through a decline in futures prices. - Spread: It shows that supply exceeds demand. The near - month contracts in the market are constantly repairing the basis through price declines, and the far - month contracts face the expectation of reduced production capacity, with a focus on reverse spread operations. [32][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current egg market has sufficient supply due to the high inventory of laying hens and the continuous release of cold - storage eggs. Meanwhile, the terminal demand is weak, resulting in low - priced sales by breeding enterprises to reduce inventory, and the spot price has been lower than expected, causing the industry to fall into losses again. However, with the start of school - opening stockpiling and mid - autumn procurement by food factories, demand is expected to pick up, which may drive up egg prices. The futures price has declined again due to the continuous drop in spot prices and high inventory [8]. - It is recommended to participate in the market mainly through short - term trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy: Participate in the market mainly through short - term trading [7]. - Egg market review: This week, the egg futures 09 contract closed at 3362 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 122 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. In the future, high inventory and weak demand continue to pressure prices, but future demand may improve [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: The egg futures 09 contract declined again, with a position of 203,664 lots, a decrease of 22,376 lots compared to the previous week. The net position of the top 20 decreased from - 37,010 to - 27,832 [14]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 6 [18]. - Spot price and basis: The egg spot price was 2,886 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 287 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 476 yuan per ton [24]. - Futures monthly spread: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was - 188 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - Related product prices: As of August 1, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.45 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of key - monitored vegetables was 4.58 yuan per kilogram [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply side: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%; the new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - Elimination of laying hens: As of June 30, 2025, the national laying - hen elimination index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%; the average age of eliminated hens was 501 days [45]. - Feed raw material prices: As of August 7, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,395.49 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2,940 yuan per ton [49]. - Feed price and breeding profit: As of August 1, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was - 0.16 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.70 yuan per kilogram [56]. - Egg - chicken chick and eliminated - hen prices: As of August 1, 2025, the average price of egg - chicken chicks in the main production areas was 3.85 yuan per chick, and the average price of eliminated hens was 11.76 yuan per kilogram [62]. - Egg exports: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [66]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Xiaoming Co., Ltd. The report shows its price - to - earnings ratio change, but specific data is not provided [68].