研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 03 月 02 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3618 | 3645 | -27 | 01-05 | 212 | 216 | -4 | | JD05 | 3406 | 3429 | -23 | 05-09 | -402 | -388 | -14 | | JD09 | 3808 | 3817 | -9 | 09-01 | 190 | 172 | 18 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.54 | 1.57 | -0.03 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.20 | 1.21 | -0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.43 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 26 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3615 | 3702 | -87 | 01-05 | 202 | 259 | -57 | | JD05 | 3413 | 3443 | -30 | 05-09 | -387 | -378 | -9 | | JD09 | 3800 | 3821 | -21 | 09-01 | 185 | 119 | 66 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 | 1.60 | -0.04 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.20 | 1.24 | -0.04 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.46 | 1.47 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 25 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3778 | 3778 | 0 | 01-05 | 349 | 349 | 0 | | JD05 | 3429 | 3429 | 0 | 05-09 | -390 | -390 | 0 | | JD09 | 3819 | 3819 | 0 | 09-01 | 41 | 41 | 0 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.64 | 1.64 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.26 | 1.28 | -0.02 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.46 | 1.47 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance, the market enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices weakening the overall capacity reduction, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3778, down 12 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3429, down 41; JD09 closed at 3819, down 40 [2]. - **Cross - Month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 349, up 29; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 390, down 1; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 41, down 28 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.47, down 0.03; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.62, down 0.03; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.32, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.42 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.52 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price remained stable, with prices in most regions showing little change [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. Most regional prices were stable, with only a few areas showing price changes [2][4][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Price Changes**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines remained stable at 3 yuan. The average price of corn was 2375 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3164 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit per feather was - 4.51 yuan, down 16.73 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price and Market Conditions**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.42 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.52 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price was stable, and the egg price continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected [4]. - **Chick Hatch Volume**: In January, the monthly hatch volume of chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change [4]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of February 12, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 13.17 million, a decrease of 20% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6 was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of February 12, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 6390 tons, a decrease of 12% from the previous week, at a low level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 12, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.12 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 12, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 13.12 yuan/feather, the same as the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.24 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.26 days, the same as the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - Due to good previous profit performance, the market enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices weakening the overall capacity reduction, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption off - season starts after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, one can consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3787 with no change from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3444, up 69 from the previous day; JD09 closed at 3849, up 52 from the previous day [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 343, down 69 from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 405, up 17 from the previous day; the 09 - 01 spread was 62, up 52 from the previous day [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66 with no change; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.48, up 0.03; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.65, up 0.02. The 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.28, down 0.01; the 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.23, up 0.02; the 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.33, up 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most regional prices remained stable, with only a few showing minor fluctuations. For example, the price in Shangqiu dropped by 0.1 yuan/jin [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most regional prices remained stable [2][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2372 yuan, up 2 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3164 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was 12.18 yuan, down 0.67 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than the previous expectation. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in January was about 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change. As of the week of February 5, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7210 tons, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous week, which was at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [4][5]. - **Culling Situation**: In the week of February 6, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 495 days, a 2 - day increase from the previous week [5][6]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of the week of February 5, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per jin from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption off - season starts after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an agricultural product research report focusing on the egg market, dated February 11, 2026, written by researcher Liu Qiannan [1]. Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3787, up 6 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3375, up 11; JD09 closed at 3797, down 37 [2]. - The 01 - 05 spread was 412, down 5; 05 - 09 spread was -422, up 48; 09 - 01 spread was 10, down 43 [2]. - The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66, down 0.01; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.28, down 0.01. Similar declines were seen in other contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average price in the main producing areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, unchanged, and in the main selling areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, also unchanged [2][4]. - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][5]. Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 [2]. - The profit per chicken was 12.82 yuan, down 0.05 from the previous day [2]. Group 3: Fundamental Information - The national mainstream egg price remained stable. Beijing's egg prices were reported as stable, and prices in other regions were mostly stable with some fluctuations [4]. - In January, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.344 billion, down 0.08 billion from the previous month but up 5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises (about 50% of the national total) was 43.22 million, up 9% month - on - month and little changed year - on - year [4]. - From February 6, the weekly culled - hen slaughter in the main producing areas was 16.55 million, up 2% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 495 days, up 2 days [5]. - As of February 5, the weekly egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [5]. - As of February 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan, down 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6, the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 12.65 yuan/hen, down 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week [5]. - As of February 5, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, up 0.05 days, and in the circulation link was 1.07 days, up 0.02 days [5]. Group 4: Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is almost over. Due to the previous good profit situation, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the upcoming off - peak consumption season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has eased, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price. It is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6]. Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, it is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3790, up 20 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3392, down 32; JD09 closed at 3875, down 4 [2]. - **JD Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 398, up 52; the 05 - 09 spread was - 483, down 28; the 09 - 01 spread was 85, down 24 [2]. - **Egg/Corn and Egg/Soybean Meal Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, up 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.30, up 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.01; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.24, down 0.01. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, unchanged; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.36, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.01 from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][4]. - **Eliminated Chicken Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Profit per Chicken**: The profit per chicken was 12.72 yuan, up 0.34 from the previous day [2]. - **Feed Prices**: The average price of corn was 2369 yuan, up 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3174 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: The national mainstream egg price remained stable. The egg prices in most regions were stable, with only local fluctuations. The egg sales in the representative sales areas as of February 5th were 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [4][5]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, but an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected [4]. - **Chicken Chick Output**: The monthly output of chicken chicks in January (about 50% of the national total) was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change [4]. - **Egg - laying Hen Culling**: From February 6th, the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of February 5th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. So, it is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Spring Festival stocking is almost over. Due to the good profit situation, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the overall reduction has weakened recently due to the good egg price performance. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3790, up 20 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3392, down 32; JD09 closed at 3875, down 4. The 01 - 05 spread was 398, up 52; the 05 - 09 spread was - 483, down 28; the 09 - 01 spread was 85, down 24. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.3 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The prices of eggs and culled chickens in most regions remained stable, with only a few regions showing price fluctuations [2][4]. - **Profit Calculation**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the profit per chicken was 12.72 yuan, up 0.34 yuan. The average price of corn was 2369, up 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3174, unchanged; the compound feed for laying hens was 2.61, unchanged [2]. 2. Fundamental Information - **Egg Price and Sales**: The national mainstream egg price remained stable, and the sales volume in the representative selling areas as of February 5 was 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [4][5]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The national inventory of laying hens in January was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected. The monthly output of chicks in January was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9% and little change year - on - year [4]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: The number of culled chickens in the main producing areas in the week of February 6 was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week, and the average culling age was 495 days, a 2 - day increase from the previous week [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 6, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 12.65 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production and circulation inventories also increased slightly [5]. 3. Trading Logic - Near the Spring Festival, the Spring Festival stocking is coming to an end. Due to the good profit, the culling enthusiasm has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has improved, the overall reduction has weakened due to the good egg price. So, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has entered the inventory accumulation period around the Spring Festival. With weak demand and high inventory, the spot price is likely to fall rather than rise, driving the futures market downward. Considering the rapid accumulation of pre - festival inventory and the significant decline in spot prices, the near - month contracts may still need to squeeze out the premium. Maintain a short - selling strategy. The far - end market will re - trade the logic of production capacity reduction after the spot price turns, but the implementation path under low cost and high premium remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to the pressure after the price rises [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: From January to now, domestic egg prices first soared and then fell due to sentiment. At the beginning of the month, industry players were bullish, with fast market sales and low upstream and downstream inventories. By the end of the month, the price increase accelerated and exceeded expectations. However, from the end of the month to now, due to risk - control sentiment, demand decreased, inventory increased significantly, and egg prices dropped sharply from the high. In January, the slaughter of laying hens slowed down, the average age of hens increased, and the prices of chicks and young chickens rose. In February, market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may fall below the cost [11] - **Restocking and Culling**: In January, 86.44 million hens were restocked, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. The restocking sentiment is not as strong as last year, but it has improved month - on - month due to the increase in spot prices and the optimistic market outlook. The prices of chicks have also risen from the low. Due to the previous low egg prices and continuous breeding losses, the slaughter of hens increased, and the average age of hens decreased. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the sales of eggs were fast, and the egg price increase exceeded expectations. The breeding sector returned to profitability, which led to a slowdown in hen slaughter, and the average age of hens has now stopped falling and increased to 495 days [11] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. The main reason is that the decrease in previous restocking led to a decline in newly - laid hens, but the slowdown in hen slaughter since January slowed down the decline in inventory, and the absolute value is still high. Based on the previous restocking data and normal hen slaughter, it is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.289 billion by June this year, a decline of 3.9%. Although the relative supply will gradually decrease, the absolute supply is still relatively high [11] - **Demand Side**: As egg prices have risen to a phased high, traders are more cautious, and the market purchase volume may decrease. As the Spring Festival approaches, migrant workers are returning home, and the export of eggs is gradually turning into domestic sales. In the short term, attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic sales in the production areas [11] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in far - month contracts at high prices, short - sell near - month contracts such as 03 on rebounds, and pay attention to the possible logic switch after the Spring Festival. The profit - loss ratio is 2:1, and the recommended period is 1.5 months. The core driving logic includes inventory, spot price, and seasonality [13] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price Trend**: From January to now, domestic egg prices first rose and then fell. In February, market demand will gradually weaken, and egg prices will generally decline. After the Spring Festival, egg prices may fall below the cost. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.3 yuan to 3.1 yuan per catty in January, with a monthly high of 3.8 yuan per catty [20] - **Basis and Spread**: The spot price has dropped significantly, and the basis has returned to normal. As the spot price turns downward, the monthly spread is more suitable for reverse arbitrage [23] - **Slaughtered Hen Price**: As egg prices rebounded from the low and breeding became profitable, farmers were reluctant to sell, and the price of slaughtered hens and the average age of hens increased [26] - **Chick and Young Chicken Price**: Due to the increase in restocking sentiment, the prices of chicks and young chickens have risen from the low [11] 3. Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Restocking**: In January, 86.44 million hens were restocked, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% and a month - on - month increase of 9.2%. The restocking sentiment has improved month - on - month due to the increase in spot prices and the optimistic market outlook [33] - **Slaughtered Hen Sales**: The previous low egg prices and breeding losses led to continuous large - scale slaughter of hens and a decline in the average age of hens. During the pre - Spring Festival stocking period, the egg price increase exceeded expectations, and the breeding sector returned to profitability, which led to a slowdown in hen slaughter, and the average age of hens has now stopped falling and increased to 495 days [36] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of January, the inventory of laying hens was 1.342 billion, lower than the previous value but higher than expected. It is expected that the inventory will gradually decline to 1.289 billion by June this year, a decline of 3.9%, but the absolute supply is still relatively high [38][41] 4. Demand Side - As egg prices have risen to a phased high, traders are more cautious, and the market purchase volume may decrease. As the Spring Festival approaches, migrant workers are returning home, and the export of eggs is gradually turning into domestic sales. In the short term, attention should be paid to the digestion of domestic sales in the production areas [46] 5. Cost and Profit - The cost is lower year - on - year and has increased month - on - month. After the increase in spot prices, the breeding profitability has significantly recovered to the normal seasonal level [51] 6. Inventory Side - The pre - festival inventory has increased significantly, indicating that the supply scale is still large [56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the egg price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 98 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - The previous low level of replenishment means that the current pressure of newly - opened production is not high, and the laying - hen inventory is still in a declining trend. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level. The previous high enthusiasm for market stocking led to a significant increase in egg prices and improved breeding profits, which increased the enthusiasm for chick replenishment and slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for old - hen culling, weakening the expectation of inventory decline [6]. - Affected by the recent decline in spot prices and high inventory pressure, the futures price continued to weaken this week, adding market volatility. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - The 2603 contract of eggs closed lower with a price of 2904 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 98 yuan per 500 kilograms from the previous week. The laying - hen inventory is expected to decline, but high current inventory, improved breeding profits, increased chick - replenishment enthusiasm and slowed - down old - hen culling weaken this decline expectation. It is recommended to participate in the short - term due to price volatility [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price Trend and Top 20 Positions - The 3 - month contract of egg futures closed lower with a trading volume of 149,120 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 changed from a net long of +2,490 to a net short of - 11,114 [13]. 3.2.2 Weekly Egg Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs was 0 [17]. 3.2.3 Egg Spot Price and Basis Trend - The egg spot price was reported at 3450 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 661 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the active 3 - month contract futures price and the spot average price was +546 yuan per ton [23]. 3.2.4 Egg Futures Inter - monthly Spread Change - The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 520 yuan per 500 kilograms, generally at a low level in the same period [27]. 3.2.5 Related Commodity Spot Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 18.48 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.5 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm - As of December 31, 2025, the laying - hen inventory index nationwide was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The new - chick index nationwide was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. 3.3.2 Culled Laying - Hen Index and Culling Age - As of December 31, 2025, the culled laying - hen index nationwide was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The culling age of hens nationwide was reported at 500 days [44]. 3.3.3 Feed Raw Material Price Trends - As of February 5, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2368.82 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3100 yuan per ton [48]. 3.3.4 Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of January 30, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at 0.3 yuan per hen, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. 3.3.5 Laying - Hen Chick and Culled - Hen Prices - As of January 30, 2026, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main producing areas was reported at 3.2 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was reported at 9.44 yuan per kilogram [58]. 3.3.6 Monthly Egg Export Volume - In December 2025, China's total egg export volume was 14,898.72 tons, an increase of 2767.32 tons compared to 12,131.40 tons in the same period of the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 22.81%. It was a month - on - month increase of 1853.21 tons compared to 13,045.52 tons in the previous month [63]. 3.4 Representative Enterprises - Information about the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [65].