淘汰鸡
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鸡蛋日报-20260331
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 15:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales, but considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3727, down 4 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3440, down 13; JD09 closed at 3778, down 11 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 287, up 9; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 338, down 2; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 51, down 7 [2]. - **Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.46, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, down 0.01. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.18, unchanged; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.26, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.51 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. The national mainstream prices were stable or falling [4]. - **淘汰鸡 Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 5.02 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the cost of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2449 yuan, down 2 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3260 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.69 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was 11.71 yuan, down 3.75 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in February was about 43.3 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - **Chicken Culling**: In the week of March 19, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 15.4 million, an increase of 5.8% from the previous week. The average culling age was 505 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Sales Volume**: As of the week of March 19, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 6898 tons, an increase of 7.2% from the previous week, in the middle - low position of the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of March 19, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, a recovery of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of laying - hen farming was - 10.39 yuan per chicken, a recovery of 0.2 yuan per chicken from the previous week. The average inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, unchanged from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - The recent sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales. However, considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].
鸡蛋日报-20260330
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 11:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales. However, considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies, and it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3731, up 7 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3453, down 49; JD09 closed at 3789, down 16 [2]. - **Cross - Month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 278, up 56; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 336, down 33; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 58, down 23 [2]. - **Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.58, up 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.23, up 0.01. Other ratios also had corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.41 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. Most national mainstream prices remained stable, with some local fluctuations [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][6]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of culled chickens was 5.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged; the average price of corn was 2451 yuan, down 2 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3268 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.70 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was 15.29 yuan, up 0.98 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicks in sample enterprises in February was about 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5%. As of the week of March 19, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 6898 tons, an increase of 7.2% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [4][5]. - **Culled Chicken Situation**: In the week of March 19, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 15.4 million, an increase of 5.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 505 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - **Inventory and Profit**: As of March 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, the same as the previous week. The average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week; the expected profit of egg - chicken farming on March 19 was - 10.39 yuan per chicken, an increase of 0.2 yuan per chicken from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - The sharp rise in the price of the main May contract of eggs is due to the increase in feed costs and good market sales. However, considering the current loose supply in the fundamentals and the high price of the May contract, and the limited trading time approaching the position limit, it is not recommended to chase the rise of eggs [7]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - Side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8].
鸡蛋市场周报:高存栏压力仍存,盘面区间波动-20260327
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 10:01
Group 1: Report Summary and Investment Suggestions - The egg market showed an upward trend this week, with the closing price of the 2605 contract at 3,502 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 93 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - The current school openings and factory resumptions, along with early Qingming Festival stockpiling, have significantly boosted off - season demand. High feed costs support the market, and farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to a rebound in spot prices. However, the rising spot prices weaken the expectation of a decline in laying - hen inventory, and the slow culling of old hens results in sufficient supply and future supply pressure. The egg futures market is expected to remain volatile, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - The egg futures May contract fluctuated upwards, with a trading volume of 187,480 lots, an increase of 22,347 lots from last week. The net position of the top 20 traders was +25,899, compared to +576 last week, indicating an increase in net long positions [13]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 20 [17]. Spot Price and Basis - The egg spot price was reported at 3,418 yuan per 500 kilograms, a rise of 124 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week. The basis between the May active contract futures price and the spot average price was - 84 yuan per ton [23]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The spread between the May and July egg futures contracts was 60 yuan per 500 kilograms, at a relatively high level compared to the same period [27]. Related Commodity Spot Prices - As of March 26, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was 15.65 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was 4.78 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 1.65% [33]. Group 3: Industrial Chain Supply - side: Inventory and Replenishment - As of December 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. Culling of Laying Hens - As of December 31, 2025, the national culled laying - hen index was 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The average age of culled hens was 500 days [44]. Feed Raw Material Prices - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of corn was 2,452.55 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 3,260 yuan per ton [48]. Feed Price and Breeding Profit - As of March 27, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was - 0.26 yuan per hen. As of March 20, 2026, the average price of laying - hen compound feed was 2.9 yuan per kilogram [54]. Egg - laying Hen Chick and Culled Hen Prices - As of March 20, 2026, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.6 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens was 10.52 yuan per kilogram [58]. Egg Monthly Exports - In February 2026, China's total egg exports were 10,796.37 tons, an increase of 81.63 tons or 0.76% year - on - year compared to 10,714.73 tons in the same period last year, and a decrease of 3,741.98 tons month - on - month compared to 14,538.34 tons in the previous month [63]. Group 4: Representative Company - The report also mentioned the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd [65].
鸡蛋日报-20260326
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 12:36
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of the main May contract of eggs rose significantly today, with a maximum increase of 3.37% to over 3,525 yuan/ton. The position of the May contract increased instead of decreasing as the limit on positions approached before delivery. On the one hand, the recent increase in feed costs has raised the price center, and the average price of eggs in the main producing areas has recently risen to 3.3 yuan/jin. On the other hand, the market has been moving goods well recently, so the willingness to place buy orders has increased. However, considering the current situation, the current fundamental supply is relatively loose, and the increase in the May contract today is too large. Considering that the trading time for the May contract is limited as the limit on positions approaches in the future, funds may also close their positions in advance. Therefore, it is not recommended to chase the rise in eggs [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.31 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin compared to the previous trading day; the average price in the main selling areas is 3.47 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. Most of the mainstream prices across the country remained stable today. The egg prices in major markets in Beijing remained stable, with the mainstream reference price in Beijing at 148 yuan/44 jin, and the mainstream wholesale prices in Shimen, Xinfadi, and Huilongguan at 148 yuan/44 jin. The mainstream wholesale price of eggs on Dayang Road was 148 yuan [stable], with both high and low prices depending on quality, normal arrivals, flexible transactions, and normal sales. Egg prices in Northeast Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang remained stable, prices in Shanxi and Hebei were mainly stable, the mainstream prices in Shandong were mostly stable, egg prices in Henan were stable, brown egg prices in Hubei were stable, and prices in Jiangsu and Anhui were mainly stable. There were some price fluctuations in local areas, and egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, with normal sales [4]. - According to Zhuochuang data, the number of laying hens in production nationwide in February was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, higher than previously expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in February (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 5% [4]. - According to Zhuochuang data, the number of laying hens culled in the main producing areas nationwide in the week of March 5 was 10.94 million, an increase of 24% compared to the previous week. According to the monitoring and statistics of the culling age of culled hens in key producing areas across the country by Zhuochuang Information, the average culling age of culled hens in the week of March 5 was 502 days, an increase of 1 day compared to the previous week [5]. - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of March 5, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas nationwide was 7,304 tons, an increase of 1.5% compared to the previous week, which is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - According to Zhuochuang data, as of March 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was -0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin compared to the previous week; on February 27, the expected profit from laying hen farming was -11.85 yuan/hen, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/jin compared to the previous week [5]. - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of March 5, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous week's inventory days [6]. - The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days compared to the previous week [7]. - The price of culled hens across the country fell today, with the average price in the main producing areas at 5.07 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin compared to the previous trading day [7]. 2. Trading Logic - The price of the main May contract of eggs rose significantly today, with a maximum increase of 3.37% to over 3,525 yuan/ton. The position of the May contract increased instead of decreasing as the limit on positions approached before delivery. On the one hand, the recent increase in feed costs has raised the price center, and the average price of eggs in the main producing areas has recently risen to 3.3 yuan/jin. On the other hand, the market has been moving goods well recently, so the willingness to place buy orders has increased. However, considering the current situation, the current fundamental supply is relatively loose, and the increase in the May contract today is too large. Considering that the trading time for the May contract is limited as the limit on positions approaches in the future, funds may also close their positions in advance. Therefore, it is not recommended to chase the rise in eggs [8]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].
鸡蛋日报-20260325
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 09:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3690, up 8 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3410, up 9; JD09 closed at 3793, up 10. The 01 - 05 spread was 280, down 1; 05 - 09 spread was - 383, down 1; 09 - 01 spread was 103, up 2. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybean meal all increased by 0.01 [2] - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.47 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable. The average price of culled chickens was 5.05 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2][4] 2. Fundamental Information - **Production and Sales**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 0.06 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in February was about 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4] - **Culling**: In the week of March 5, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5] - **Sales Volume**: As of the week of March 5, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5] - **Profit**: As of the week of March 5, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 27, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.85 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/jin from the previous week [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 5, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [6][7] 3. Trading Logic - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival and the recent good egg price performance, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] 4. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]
鸡蛋日报-20260324
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 11:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: JD01 closed at 3682, down 3 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3401, down 42; JD09 closed at 3783, down 25 [2] - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 281, up 39; the 05 - 09 spread was - 382, down 17; the 09 - 01 spread was 101, down 22 [2] - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, up 0.01; 05 egg/corn was 1.43, unchanged; 09 egg/corn was 1.57, up 0.01. The 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.20, up 0.01; 05 egg/bean meal was 1.15, up 0.00; 09 egg/bean meal was 1.25, unchanged [2] 2. Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.47 yuan/jin, unchanged [4] - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 5.05 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [2] 3. Profit Calculation - **Cost and Profit**: The average price of culled chickens was 5.05 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the profit per chicken was 9.34 yuan, up 0.41 yuan from the previous day. The average price of corn was 2453 yuan, unchanged; the average price of bean meal was 3346 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.72 yuan, unchanged [2] 4. Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: In February, the national laying hen inventory was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly chick output of sample enterprises in February was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4] - **Culled Chicken Statistics**: In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5] - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5] - **Profit and Inventory**: As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [5][6][7] 5. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]
银河期货鸡蛋日报-20260323
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 11:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall capacity reduction has slowed down due to the good profit performance in the early stage, which has decreased the market's enthusiasm for culling. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract at high prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3685, up 16 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3443, up 34; JD09 closed at 3808, up 14 [2]. - **Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 242, down 18; the 05 - 09 spread was - 365, up 20; the 09 - 01 spread was 123, down 2 [2]. - **Price Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.54, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.19, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.43, unchanged; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.14, up 0.02; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.57, down 0.01; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.25, up 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.47 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.07 yuan/jin, down 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Costs**: The average price of corn was 2453 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the average price of bean meal was 3372 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.73 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profits**: The profit per chicken was 8.50 yuan, up 0.44 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Prices**: The national mainstream egg prices mostly remained stable, with prices in many regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong remaining unchanged. The egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate, and the sales were normal [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, higher than expected. The monthly output of egg - laying chicken chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 10.94 million, an increase of 24% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7304 tons, an increase of 1.5% from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of the week of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 27th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.85 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/jin from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [5][6][7]. 3.5 Trading Logic The good profit performance in the early stage has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract at high prices [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract at high prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].
鸡蛋市场周报:高存栏压力仍存,盘面维持窄幅震荡-20260320
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 09:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the egg market showed a narrow - range oscillation with a slight decline. The 2605 contract closed at 3409 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 24 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The supply side has a high inventory, and the elimination of old hens is slow, resulting in sufficient overall supply. However, with schools fully reopened and factories resuming work, the pre - Qingming Festival stocking has started in advance, significantly boosting the off - season demand. The feed cost has increased, and farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding up prices, leading to a rebound in the spot price. The rise in the spot price further weakens the expectation of a decline in laying hen inventory. The egg market will maintain an oscillating trend, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The egg price showed a narrow - range oscillation with a slight decline. The 2605 contract closed at 3409 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 24 yuan per 500 kilograms from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply side has high inventory and slow old - hen elimination, but demand is boosted by school reopenings, factory resumptions, and pre - Qingming stocking. Feed costs have increased, and farmers are holding up prices. The spot price has rebounded, weakening the expectation of a decline in laying hen inventory. The market will maintain an oscillating trend, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The May contract of egg futures oscillated slightly downwards. The trading volume was 165,133 lots, a decrease of 3,126 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was +576, and the change in net long positions was not significant [13]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 5 [17]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3,294 yuan per 500 kilograms, an increase of 167 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the May active contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at - 115 yuan per ton [23]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The spread between the May and July contracts of egg futures was reported at - 34 yuan per 500 kilograms, which was at a medium level in the same period [27]. - **Related Product Spot Prices**: As of March 19, 2026, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 16.11 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables was reported at 4.85 yuan per kilogram [33]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory and Replenishment**: As of December 31, 2025, the national laying hen inventory index was reported at 109.28, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The national new - chick index was reported at 71.99, a month - on - month decrease of 23.10% [39]. - **Elimination Index and Age**: As of December 31, 2025, the national elimination laying hen index was reported at 124.98, a month - on - month increase of 23.52%. The national elimination hen age was reported at 500 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of March 19, 2026, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2,455.29 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3,370 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of March 13, 2026, the breeding profit of laying hens was reported at - 0.33 yuan per chicken. The average price of laying hen compound feed was reported at 2.84 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Egg Chicken and Elimination Chicken Prices**: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 3.5 yuan per chick, and the average price of elimination chickens in the main production areas was reported at 10.4 yuan per kilogram [58]. - **Egg Monthly Export Volume**: In January 2026, the total egg export volume was 14,538.34 tons, an increase of 3,317.31 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 29.56%. It decreased by 360.38 tons compared to the same period last month [64]. 4. Representative Company - **Xiaoming Co., Ltd.**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [66].
鸡蛋日报-20260318
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 09:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - Due to the good profit situation in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has declined, leading to a slowdown in overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg price performance, the overall de - stocking has weakened. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3659, down 11 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3400, up 18; JD09 closed at 3806, down 28. The 01 - 05 spread was 259, down 29; the 05 - 09 spread was - 406, up 46; the 09 - 01 spread was 147, down 17. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn and soybeans had minor changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.17 yuan/jin, up 0.02 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.35 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The national average price of culled chickens was 5.21 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2][4][8]. - **Profit Calculation**: The profit per chicken was 4.91 yuan, up 0.61 yuan from the previous day. The average price of culled chickens was 5.21 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan. The average price of corn was 2452 yuan, down 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3384 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The national mainstream egg prices were mixed. Prices in Beijing, Northeast China, Shanxi, and Hebei increased, while those in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei were mostly stable [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The monthly output of chicks in February was about 43.3 million, with little change from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4]. - **Chicken Culling**: In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales**: As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week. The production - link inventory was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days; the circulation - link inventory was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days [5][6][7]. 3.3 Trading Logic - The good early - stage profit situation has led to a decline in the enthusiasm for culling and a slowdown in capacity reduction. After the Spring Festival, it is the egg consumption off - season. Although the inventory has alleviated, the recent good egg price performance has weakened the overall de - stocking. Therefore, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the spot price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas, the feed cost per jin of eggs, the inventory of laying hens, various spreads, basis, egg production profit expectations, and the weekly average profit per jin of fresh eggs. These charts cover data from multiple years, which helps in analyzing the long - term trends and fluctuations of the egg market [12][13][14][17][20][25][27][32]
鸡蛋日报-20260317
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-17 09:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the relatively good profit situation in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for chicken culling has declined, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg prices have weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of JD01, JD05, and JD09 remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 3684, 3439, and 3860 respectively. The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 also remained unchanged at 245, - 421, and 176 respectively [2] - The ratios of 01 egg/corn, 05 egg/corn, and 09 egg/corn had slight changes, while the ratios of 01 egg/bean meal and 09 egg/bean meal increased by 0.01, and the ratio of 05 egg/bean meal remained unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.16 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.31 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The prices of eggs in most regions remained stable, with only slight price adjustments in some areas [2][4] - The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 5.21 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [2][7] 3.3 Profit Calculation - The average price of culled chickens was 5.21 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, an increase of 0.04 yuan from the previous day; the price of egg - chicken vaccines remained unchanged at 3 yuan [2] - The profit per chicken was 3.75 yuan, a decrease of 0.79 yuan from the previous day. The average price of corn was 2452 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan from the previous day; the average price of bean meal was 3418 yuan, remaining unchanged from the previous day; the price of egg - chicken compound feed remained unchanged at 2.74 yuan [2] 3.4 Fundamental Information - In February, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, higher than expected. The monthly output of chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.3 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [4] - In the week of March 5th, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 10.94 million, a 24% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 502 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [5] - As of the week of March 5th, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [5] - As of March 5th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.29 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 27th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 11.85 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 1.27 yuan/jin from the previous week [5] - As of the week of March 5th, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.22 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [6][7] 3.5 Trading Logic - The relatively good profit situation in the early stage led to a decline in the market's enthusiasm for chicken culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the egg consumption off - season after the Spring Festival and the weakening of capacity reduction due to good egg prices, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [8] 3.6 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9]