Report Title - "High Temperature Hits, Market Enters Seasonal Peak Season - Egg Weekly Report 2025-07-14" [1] Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current contradiction is the co - existence of high supply and seasonal weather factors, leading to low spot prices. However, there will be a conversion point between the cycle and seasonal strength and weakness. The futures and spot markets are expected to have a phased rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Last week, the egg futures showed a neutral trend, with near - term contracts being weaker and far - term contracts being stronger. The near - term contracts were supported by delivery, maintaining a premium, while the far - term contracts oscillated. The spot was still constrained by weather and short - term supply - demand pressure, and the futures were in a phased bottom - building process, waiting for a reversal [6] Spot Market - Last week, the egg spot was generally stable. The production areas drove the sales areas to lower prices. The inventory in the production areas was high, and the market was actively selling goods and lowering prices. The sales areas were generally stable. Currently, weather conditions were suppressing spot prices, but the seasonal peak season was approaching, with tourism and demand support on the way, and the energy efficiency on the supply side would further decrease [14] Supply - **Newly - added capacity**: From June to August 2025, the newly - opened production corresponded to the replenishment volume from February to April 2025, which remained at a high level, higher than the historical average [17] - **Eliminated capacity**: From June to August 2025, the normal eliminated capacity corresponded to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume was relatively neutral [17] - **Laying hen inventory**: The inventory of laying hens remained at a high level. The newly - added capacity increased steadily, the new replenishment slowed down, and the available elimination volume decreased slightly this month. The data showed that the backward production capacity had started the active elimination phase, but relatively slowly, and the overall supply pressure still existed [17] - **Eliminated chickens**: The backward production capacity began to be removed but had not entered the acceleration phase. The price of eliminated chickens was 4.51 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin, seemingly entering a bottom - rebound period. The elimination volume continued to rise and was approaching the peak, and the "shutdown" might slow down. The average elimination age was 502 days, down 2 days, showing an obvious downward trend [21] Demand - The demand side did not change significantly. With students across the country on vacation, the demand slowed down in the short term. New demand release needed time, waiting for support from summer tourism and mid - to - long - term Mid - Autumn Festival stocking [3] Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The corn price remained at a high level, and the soybean meal spot price declined steadily. The overall cost fluctuated slightly downward. Currently, the feed cost was about 2.5 yuan/jin, and the comprehensive breeding cost was about 2.8 yuan/jin [3] - **Profit**: The breeding profit fell below the feed cost, and the entire industry entered a deep loss period, operating at a low level, waiting for a seasonal bottom - rebound. The negative feedback of production capacity caused by profit losses was gradually taking effect, and attention should be paid to the elimination of backward production capacity [3][30] Market Sentiment and Spread - **Funds**: The funds were at a high level, and the market competition intensified. The bears believed that due to high production capacity and seasonal suppression, there was still room for decline, while the bulls thought the valuation was low and the season was about to turn from weak to strong, presenting value for long - positions [33] - **Basis**: The basis was negative, and the overall futures price was at a premium, with positive expectations. Currently, the basis was at a low level, waiting for the strengthening trend brought by the active peak season [35] - **Spread**: The decline in spot prices suppressed near - term contracts, and short - term reverse arbitrage was the main strategy [38] Related Product Impact - **Vegetables**: Vegetable prices were about to enter a seasonal strengthening phase, providing some support for egg prices [26] - **Pork**: The pork price continued to weaken, and its substitution effect on eggs was not obvious [26] - **Other meats**: The prices of other meats showed a short - term strengthening trend [26]