Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of eggs is expected to remain sufficient, with a high inventory of laying hens. The egg price has shown signs of stabilization after falling to the current level. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see. [16] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Spot Analysis - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas this week was 2.94 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.57 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.16 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.51 yuan per catty from last Friday. The price in the main producing areas declined weakly this week. [5] - The price of old hens first rose and then fell this week. During the May Day holiday, household consumption increased in the first half of the week, and the live poultry market had a fast turnover. The price of old hens continued to rise supported by the demand side. Later, the egg price dropped rapidly, the slaughter sentiment of the breeding end increased, and the demand weakened after the holiday, so the price of old hens showed a downward trend. [5] 2. Supply Analysis - During the May Day holiday, the terminal demand was weak, the sales in the selling areas were average, and most of them actively processed inventory. The shipping volume in the producing areas was stable and weak. After the holiday, the demand declined, and combined with the downward egg price, all links were cautious in purchasing, and the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased. By the end of the week, as the egg price fell to a low level, the turnover in some areas improved. Overall, the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased compared with the previous week. [9] - According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg - laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas across the country in the week of May 9 was 17.25 million, an increase of 4% compared with the previous week. The average slaughter age of culled hens in the week of May 8 was 536 days, the same as the previous week. [9] - According to Zhuochuang data, the inventory of laying hens in the country in April was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion compared with the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, higher than the previous expectation. The monthly output of egg chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in April (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 46.985 million, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. [9] - Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, based on the previous replenishment data, it can be inferred that the approximate inventory of laying hens in May, June, July, and August 2025 will be 1.332 billion, 1.337 billion, 1.345 billion, and 1.349 billion respectively. [9] 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little during the week. As of May 8, the corn price rose to around 2360 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price fell to 3300 yuan per ton, and the current comprehensive feed cost was about 2642 yuan per ton, which was about 2.9 yuan per catty when converted to the feed cost of single - catty eggs. [12] - Overall, the price of corn increased slightly and the price of soybean meal decreased significantly during the week, so the breeding cost of laying hens decreased. This week, the egg price declined weakly. After the May Day holiday, the market replenishment was less than expected, and the demand side continued to be weak. Traders accumulated inventory actively before and mostly sold at low prices, so the egg price was under pressure to fall. Since the weekly average price of eggs decreased compared with the previous week, the breeding profit of laying hens continued to shrink. [12] - According to Zhuochuang data, as of May 1, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was - 0.11 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.29 yuan per catty compared with the previous week. On May 2, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was 20.07 yuan per chicken, an increase of 0.1 yuan per catty compared with the previous week. [12] 4. Demand Analysis - During the May Day holiday, tourism and outdoor consumption increased, and the market inventory was digested well. In the middle of the week, as the replenishment of each link ended, the market demand weakened and the sales volume decreased. At the end of the week, as the egg price continued to hit a new low, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase decreased. Overall, the demand was relatively weak during the week, and the sales volume in the selling areas decreased compared with the previous week. [15] - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of May 1, the sales volume of eggs in the representative selling areas across the country was 8816 tons, a decrease of 2% compared with the previous week. [15] - The inventory in the national egg market continued to accumulate during the week. The main reason was that the demand weakened after the May Day holiday, the sales in the selling areas slowed down, the inventory accumulated and the price declined, which forced the breeding and trading ends to slow down the sales and increase the inventory. At present, the egg price is running at a short - term low level, and the inventory may decrease driven by the Dragon Boat Festival stocking. [15] - According to Zhuochuang data, as of the week of May 1, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.19 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.33 days, an increase of 0.05 days compared with the previous week. [15] - This week, the vegetable price index was still at a low level. On May 8, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 87.76. The pork price index also decreased. As of May 8, the average national wholesale price of pork was about 15.94 yuan per kilogram, a slight decrease compared with the previous week. [15] 5. Trading Strategy - Trading logic: It is expected that the overall supply of eggs will still be sufficient, and the inventory of laying hens is high. After the egg price has fallen to the current level, it shows signs of stabilization recently. It is recommended to close out previous short positions for profit and wait and see. [16] - Unilateral: Wait and see. [16] - Arbitrage: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract. [16] - Options: Wait and see. [16] 6. Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data on the inventory of laying hens, brooding chicken replenishment, weekly culled chicken volume, culled chicken age, average price of egg chicks in the main producing areas, and various price spreads and basis, but no specific analysis is made in this part of the text. [18][21][23][24]

Report Title - The market has returned to a weak state after the holiday stocking: Strategy Weekly Report 2025-04-28 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a state of oversupply, with low valuations in the short term. After the holiday stocking, the upside potential for spot prices is limited, and futures have started to reflect post-holiday expectations, with the market trending downward [3] Section Summaries Periodic and Spot Market Review - Egg futures: Last week, the futures market showed a pattern of near-term strength and long-term weakness. As the spot basis for near-term contracts converged, and long-term contracts reflected expectations, the market began to decline following the peak and fall of spot prices. However, considering that near-term contracts were at par with spot prices and closely followed the decline, while the basis for long-term contracts remained high, the market as a whole remained in a weak cycle compared to the same period. It will still take time to break out of the bottom range [6] - Egg spot: Last week, supported by stocking, spot prices rebounded significantly. However, as downstream sales slowed and inventories accumulated in production areas, spot prices firmly declined. Spot prices oscillated in the range of 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per jin. Currently, price increases are mainly passed on to downstream, but the market will return to weakness after the May Day stocking, and weather conditions will become the main factor suppressing spot prices [6] Supply Side - New capacity: From March to June 2025, the newly opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2024 to January 2025, which generally remained at a high level, with the new volume higher than the historical average [10] - Elimination capacity: From March to June 2025, the normal elimination capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively moderate [10] - Laying hen inventory: The inventory has remained at a high level. The growth rate of normal new capacity has been relatively stable, and the elimination volume has been high, which may lead to a temporary slowdown in capacity supply [10] Elimination End - Elimination chickens: The price of elimination chickens has been oscillating at a high level, and the increase in egg prices has slowed down the elimination process. The elimination volume has significantly decreased, and the average elimination age is around 530 days, showing a continued downward trend from a high level [13] Seasonal and Market Factors - Seasonality: The seasonal strength has shifted, and the replenishment demand has gradually ended, transitioning to the traditional weather-driven trend [15] - Production area: Currently, inventories are accumulating in production areas, and downstream purchases are made on an as-needed basis. The southern weather is unfavorable for storage, and overall quality issues are affecting egg prices [15] - Consumption: After the holiday stocking, arrivals have increased [15] Substitute Products - Vegetables: Vegetable prices are weak, and as supply has recovered, the support for egg prices has weakened [17] - Pork: Pork prices have continued to decline, and the substitution effect on eggs is not significant [17] - Other meats: The prices of other meats have shown a staged increase [17] Cost and Profit - Raw materials: Corn and soybean meal prices have rebounded from low levels. Corn prices have been supported by policy-driven purchases, while soybean meal has remained stable with a slight upward trend due to short-term spot shortages [21] - Cost: Costs have been continuously rising. Currently, the feed cost is around 2.66 yuan per jin, and the comprehensive breeding cost is around 2.96 yuan per jin [21] - Breeding profit: There has been a rebound, but the industry has not yet emerged from the seasonal low [21] Capital and Market Trends - Capital: This week, funds left the market after the rebound and then re-entered. Short-selling funds in the main contracts regained momentum [24] - Basis: The basis has declined from a high level, and spot prices have significantly dropped after the holiday. However, the basis is expected to stabilize and strengthen later, providing some support to the futures market [26] - Spread: The near-term strength and long-term weakness driven by stocking have ended, and the market has returned to a contango structure [29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market shows a clear contradiction of oversupply and low valuation in the current stage. After the seasonal stocking, the weather factor will continue to suppress the market. It is recommended to short after the rebound and continue the JD59 positive spread strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market Review - **Egg Futures**: Last week, the futures market showed concerns about the short - term spot price increase. The futures market was stagnant and needed further guidance from the spot market. Although the spot market may still have room to rise, the futures market has started to reflect the post - holiday spot price expectations. It will still take time for the market to break away from the bottom range [6]. - **Egg Spot**: Last week, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. Supported by downstream stocking, the spot price rebounded from the bottom and fluctuated in the range of 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty. However, after the May Day stocking, the downstream market will return to weakness, and the weather will become the main factor suppressing the spot price [6]. 3.2 Supply Side - **New - added Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the newly - opened production corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2024 to January 2025, which remains at a high level and is higher than the historical average [10]. - **Eliminated Capacity**: From March to June 2025, the normal eliminated capacity corresponds to the replenishment volume from October 2023 to January 2024, and the available elimination volume is relatively neutral [10]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: The inventory remains at a high level. The growth rate of normal new - added capacity is relatively stable, and the elimination volume is high, which may lead to a slowdown in phased supply [10]. 3.3 Elimination End - The price of eliminated chickens fluctuates at a high level, the elimination volume slows down significantly, the average elimination age is about 530 days, and the elimination enthusiasm is increasing [13]. 3.4 Market Factors - **Seasonality**: The seasonal strength - weakness conversion occurs, and the restocking demand is still the main support for the current market [15]. - **Production Area**: The inventory in the production area is not high, and purchases are made on demand. The future weather in the south is not conducive to storage, and quality issues will affect egg prices [15]. - **Consumption End**: After holiday stocking, the inventory has been transferred to the downstream [15]. - **Substitute Products**: Vegetable prices are weak, and the supply has recovered, so the support for egg prices has weakened; pork prices continue to decline, and the substitution effect on eggs is not obvious; other meat prices have strengthened in the short term [17]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material End**: Corn and soybean meal prices have rebounded from the low level. Corn is supported by policy - based purchases, and soybean meal remains stable with a slight upward trend due to short - term spot shortages [22]. - **Cost End**: The cost continues to rise. Currently, the feed cost is about 2.6 yuan per catty, and the comprehensive breeding cost is about 2.9 yuan per catty [22]. - **Breeding Profit**: The breeding profit has rebounded, but it has not yet emerged from the seasonal low [22]. 3.6 Capital and Market Indicators - **Capital Flow**: After the rebound this week, funds left the market and then re - entered. The short - selling main funds exerted force again [25]. - **Basis**: The basis has fallen from a high level. The spot price has dropped significantly after the holiday, but the basis has stabilized and strengthened later, which is expected to provide some support for the market [27]. - **Spread**: With the rebound of the spot price, the near - term contracts are supported, and the spread has strengthened. In the future, the positive spread strategy will be the main approach [30].