基准10年期美国国债收益率维持在4.08%左右，近期的上涨态势暂时停歇，投资者正密切权衡美联储的 政策前景。目前市场预计，美联储在下周的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上降息25个基点的概率为 89%，且预计2026年美联储累计降息幅度约为0.9%。市场普遍预期白宫经济顾问凯文.哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)可能被提名担任下一任美联储主席，这一预期进一步强化了市场的鸽派情绪。哈塞特此前因支 持加快降息步伐、与特朗普总统的立场保持一致而闻名。 从近期市场表现看，黄金市场在经历10月的历史高点后进入调整阶段，周线图上呈现布林带缩口横盘特 征，5日与10日均线形成死叉，短期空头情绪占优。但这种调整更像是"蓄力"而非"反转"，4200美元/盎 司关口已展现出较强支撑力——12月4日伦敦金现在该价位附近窄幅波动，未出现实质性破位。 日图来看，金价目前处于趋势线阻力下方震荡调整，多头动力减弱，但仍处于众多均线支撑上方，看涨 前景良好，虽有调整及回落风险，但也可视为再度的入场看涨机会，因而，下方关注各均线支撑，进行 低多看涨即可。今日金价上方阻力关注：4250，4280，4300；下方支撑关注：4200，4180， ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy may be shifting from inflation to employment, with the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting being a key opportunity for Chairman Powell to signal this change [1][2][5]. Group 1: Jackson Hole Meeting - The Jackson Hole central bank meeting is scheduled for August 21-23 this year [3]. - Historically, this meeting has been a platform for significant policy announcements by the Fed Chair, including Powell's "Volcker moment" in August 2022, which set the tone for aggressive rate hikes [6]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements within the Fed - There is a clear division within the Federal Reserve, with a dovish camp led by officials like Williams and Hammack, who are more concerned about inflation, and a hawkish camp represented by Kashkari and Daly, who focus on economic downturn risks and labor market slowdowns [4]. - The increasing internal disagreements suggest that market expectations are leaning towards Powell providing clear signals at the Jackson Hole meeting [5][6]. Group 3: Powell's Influence - Despite the internal divisions, Powell's communication remains dominant, as evidenced by a recent 9:2 voting outcome in the committee [6]. - Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole meeting is expected to be crucial, especially if the Fed's focus indeed shifts towards employment [6].