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黄金定价逻辑巨变!传统利率负相关失效,央行购金推动新机制形成
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 05:45
Group 1 - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has weakened, leading to a new pricing framework for gold [1][3] - Prior to 2022, the relationship between gold prices and real interest rates was stable, with rising real rates leading to decreased demand for gold and vice versa [3] - Since 2022, gold prices have remained strong even in the context of significant increases in real interest rates, challenging the traditional pricing logic [3] Group 2 - Central bank gold purchases have become a significant driver of gold prices, with over 1000 tons bought in the past three years, double the average from 2010 to 2021 [4] - Concerns over the dominance of the US dollar and the need for diversified asset allocation have led to increased central bank demand for gold [4] - The uncertainty in the monetary system is reshaping gold's role as a store of value, with investors viewing it as a core asset to mitigate monetary risks rather than just an inflation hedge [4] Group 3 - The importance of gold as a diversification tool in investment portfolios has increased amid global economic uncertainty [4] - Institutional investors are beginning to see gold as a necessary long-term allocation rather than a short-term trading asset, providing ongoing support for gold prices [4]