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通胀温和释放降息信号 金价试探强阻警惕回调
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-13 11:11
Core Insights - Gold prices reached a daily high of $3360 but have not yet broken through the strongest resistance level, indicating potential for short-term pullbacks [1][4] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, showing signs of easing inflation pressure, which may influence Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2][3] - The market anticipates a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a 62% chance of another cut in October [2] Market Analysis - The current volatility curve shows a positive slope, indicating increasing market divergence as prices rise, but the weak upward slope suggests a convergence in expected volatility [3] - Gold prices are expected to oscillate within the $3380-$3460 range, with a breakout needed to increase trading enthusiasm [3][4] - Key support levels for gold are at $3330 and $3300, while resistance levels are at $3358 and $3367, with a critical dividing line at $3350 [4] Technical Analysis - The strongest resistance level for gold is at $3360, and if this level holds, a subsequent pullback should be monitored [4] - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase for the next few trading days, with fluctuations anticipated within the $3330-$3360 range [4] - The Bollinger Bands indicate that if gold can maintain above $3370, it may reach a high of $3390, while failure to break this level suggests a weak consolidation outlook [4]