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美联储理事沃勒:美联储需要降息,但需谨慎为之
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 12:01
据报道,美联储理事沃勒表示,目前各项数据都在传递同一个信号,即劳动力市场表现不佳;CPI数据 将对即将召开的会议大有帮助;如果通胀抬头后又回落,这不应影响货币政策;美联储需要降息,但需 谨慎为之;对即将召开的会议上的25个基点降息持开放态度。 ...
下周期货数据和事件:10月多项重要报告及数据待公布
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 11:12
【下周重要期货数据和事件一览】10月13日待定,中国将公布9月贸易帐数据,国内成品油开启新一轮 调价窗口,欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告。 10月14日16:00,IEA公布月度原油市场报告;当日待定, Conab公布巴西2025/26年度谷物产量调查结果。 10月15日9:30,中国公布9月CPI年率、月率;20:30, 美国公布9月季调后CPI月率、核心CPI月率,未季调CPI年率、核心CPI年率。 10月15日待定,公布 ITS/AmSpec/SGS10月1 - 15日马棕油出口数据,以及全球8月WBMS金属市场供需状况。 10月16日 2:00,美联储公布状况褐皮书。 本文由 AI算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 ...
【黄金etf持仓量】10月9日黄金ETF较上一交易日减少1.14吨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-10 07:16
全球最大黄金etf--iSharesSilverTrust持仓报告显示,10月9日黄金etf持有量为1013.44吨,较上一交易日减 少1.14吨。周四(10月9日)截止收盘,现货黄金报3975.89美元/盎司,跌幅1.58%,日内最高上探至 4057.76美元/盎司,最低触3944.29美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 一位美国政府消息人士表示,尽管联邦政府已停摆,美国劳工统计局仍在准备发布9月份的CPI数据, 但具体发布时间尚不明确,但几乎可以肯定不是原定的10月15日。该统计机构在资金中断期间已停止所 有运作,因此未能按原定计划于上周发布非农就业报告。 据政府消息人士透露,该局已开始召回部分员工返岗,以完成报告编制工作。此次决定发布数据,似乎 与年度社会保障成本调整程序有关。该项调整的依据是第三季度的通胀数据,因此9月份物价数据的延 迟发布可能导致生活成本调整的公布时间推迟。 另据其他外媒报道,美国劳工统计局计划在月底前发布9月份CPI数据。 ...
报道:美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布9月CPI数据
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-10-09 21:34
市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。 报道:美国劳工统计局准备在政府关门期间发布9月CPI数据。 风险提示及免责条款 ...
ATFX汇市前瞻:美国9月大非农来袭,澳洲联储议息料不变,欧元区CPI数据发布
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 10:33
本周二12:30,澳洲联储将公布9月利率决议结果,主流预期认为其将维持3.6%的基准利率不变。今年以来,澳洲联储已经降息三次,累计幅度75基点, 最近一次降息出现在8月份。历史数据看,澳洲联储遵循"间隔降息"的策略,也就是8月份降息后,9月份暂停降息,之后在11月份再次降息。经济数据 看,澳大利亚的二季度GDP年率增速为1.8%,连续三个月升高。二季度核心通胀率为2.7%,连续十期下降。最新失业率为4.2%,低于5%的警戒水平。七 月份出口总额460.2亿澳元,创出近21个月新高。综合来看,澳大利亚的经济数据表现良好,利率没有必要大幅度下调,支持本周澳洲联储维持基准利率 不变的判断。 ATFX前瞻:本周即将发布的经济数据重要性由高到低分别为:美国9月非农就业报告、澳洲联储利率决议、欧元区9月CPI年率,接下来做逐一解读。 ▲ATFX图 本周五20:30,美国劳工部劳动统计局将公布美国9月非农就业报告,该报告将披露美国就业市场的关键数据,预计会对美指、金银的行情产生显著冲 击。报告中最重要的数据是新增非农就业人口,前值为2.2万人,预期值5万人,预期较为乐观。历史数据看,20万人以上的非农就业人口数据会提振美 ...
DLSM外汇平台:8月CPI低于预期,纽元美元会继续下行吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 05:48
Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has faced downward pressure, recently trading around 0.5870 against the US dollar, influenced by a slight rebound in the dollar and declining inflation data from China [1][3] - China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% year-on-year in August, which was below market expectations, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures due to weak domestic demand and oversupply of industrial goods [3][6] - The weak CPI in China may indirectly affect New Zealand's exports, as China is a major trading partner, leading to increased volatility in the NZD/USD exchange rate [3][6] Group 2 - The US CPI for August showed the largest year-on-year increase in seven months, although it was still below general market expectations, raising concerns about future US monetary policy [3][4] - Market participants are focusing on key upcoming economic indicators, including China's CPI and economic performance, as well as the US consumer confidence index, which may influence short-term currency fluctuations [6] - Analysts emphasize the importance of understanding trends and risks rather than relying solely on specific data points for investment decisions, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [4][6]
分析师:CPI公布后 不排除10月和12月进一步降息的可能性
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-11 13:09
Core Insights - The U.S. core data met expectations, but the CPI data exceeded overall expectations, locking in a 25 basis point rate cut plan for next week [1] - There is a possibility of further rate cuts in October and December [1] - Today's data may slightly push up short-term inflation breakeven rates on the long end of the yield curve [1]
分析师:PPI低于预期对美联储下周决定无影响,降息25BP板上钉钉
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 06:57
Core Viewpoint - The lower-than-expected U.S. PPI data has no impact on the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision, with a 25 basis point rate cut next Wednesday being almost certain [1] Group 1 - Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, indicates that the market pricing shows a slight probability of a 50 basis point cut if CPI data is also weak [1] - There are upward price risks due to tariffs, and the current level of policy tightening remains uncertain [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart the easing cycle at a more moderate pace during the September meeting [1]
山海:黄金保持多头强势,关注晚间CPI数据影响!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 02:42
Group 1 - The market for gold and silver has shown limited movement, with gold reaching a high of 3658 and silver at 41.3, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [2] - Today's focus is on the impact of the CPI data on gold and silver, which may alter their current strength [3] - Gold is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with support levels at 3635 and 3620, and resistance at 3660 and 3675 [4] Group 2 - The international silver outlook remains unchanged, with a potential adjustment space if it does not break 41.5, while short-term strategies suggest a buy at 40 support [5] - Domestic gold contracts (Hushen Gold) are expected to continue their upward trend, with support at 830 and a target of 840 [4] - International crude oil is experiencing a low-level rebound, with a focus on resistance levels at 64 and 66 [6]
8月通胀数据点评:PPI企稳
Western Securities· 2025-09-10 11:18
Group 1: CPI Analysis - August CPI decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, driven mainly by high food price base effects[1] - Month-on-month CPI remained flat, lower than the 0.4% increase in the same period last year[1] - Food CPI rose by 0.5% month-on-month but fell by 4.3% year-on-year due to high base effects from last year[7] Group 2: PPI Insights - August PPI stabilized month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, showing a significant narrowing of the decline[2] - Fuel and black metal prices turned from decline to increase month-on-month, positively impacting PPI[2] - PPI is expected to bottom out and recover, supported by potential fiscal and supply-side policies[2] Group 3: Core CPI Trends - Core CPI rose by 0.9% year-on-year in August, continuing its upward trend[7] - Month-on-month core CPI remained flat, indicating stability in core inflation[7] - Prices of durable goods and non-durable goods, such as household appliances and clothing, showed a recovery in year-on-year growth rates[7] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include declining real estate demand and increasing external uncertainties[3]