技术面分析：周五美盘时段，黄金暴涨最高触及3378一线，本质上是降息预期升温、经济风险加剧、美 元走弱三重因素共振的结果。其核心逻辑在于：美联储政策立场从"抗通胀优先"转向"就业与通胀平 衡"，市场对宽松周期的定价提前反映在黄金价格中。未来，需密切关注8月非农数据、CPI数据及美联 储9月议息会议，这些将决定降息预期能否持续兑现，进而影响黄金的中长期走势。 千里马常有，而伯乐不常有，人生最快意的三件事莫过于：棋逢对手，酒逢知己，将遇良才！实力打造 精典，成功绝非偶然！佛渡有缘人，我渡有心人！【更多行情资讯敬请关注"钟亿金"】 从技术面看，黄金直接走了一波慢跌向下，再次试探3320昨日低点，还是有些超预期，不过还在守住 3320，欧盘向上反弹了一波至3335，给了本钱调仓出局的机会；之后就提示，关注3320支撑得失，而此 时美盘只是刺破，又出现一波大阳拉升，意味着3325-3320支撑依然存在，下方还有3315的强支撑，稳 住这两个位置拉升且突破前高，那么说明黄金已开始转强，既然突破，对于后市行情回落3352-48附近 继续多即可！ 从黄金市场特性来看，黄金本身不产生利息收益，在低利率环境下更具投资价值。若鲍威 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a state of tension, fluctuating between $3,330 and $3,370, as market participants await the outcome of the summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska, which may impact geopolitical risks and gold demand [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a slight increase on Friday but overall declined by 1.85% for the week [1] - The upcoming summit is focused on the Ukraine ceasefire agreement, which could significantly influence gold prices [1] - Geopolitical uncertainty and a low interest rate environment typically boost investor demand for gold [1] Group 2: Short-term Outlook - The short-term focus for gold is on resistance levels between $3,350 and $3,358, while support levels are identified between $3,320 and $3,310 [4] - The recent price action indicates a false rebound, with the market not breaking above $3,370, suggesting that the downward trend remains intact [2] - The ultimate target for gold prices is projected to be between $3,000 and $2,950, with key levels at $3,245 and $3,150 to $3,120 [2]

Macro Economic Group - The U.S. CPI for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, matching the previous month but slightly below the expected 2.8% [5] - The core CPI year-on-year for July reached 3.1%, the highest since February 2025, exceeding the expected 3.0% and the previous 2.9% [5] - Following the CPI data release, the market reacted with a decline in the dollar and an increase in U.S. stock futures, indicating a 90.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [6] Advanced Manufacturing Group - In the first half of the year, investments in key energy projects in China exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, with new energy storage projects seeing over 30% growth [8] - The successful completion of an integrated energy system by Shandong Shifeng Group, featuring a 108 MW solar power station and a 100 MW/200 MWh energy storage station, is expected to save 46,000 tons of standard coal and reduce CO2 emissions by 160,000 tons annually [8] - Ford announced a $5 billion investment to develop a general electric vehicle platform, aiming to produce a series of economical vehicles to compete with Chinese electric vehicle giants [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive performance of the US stock market, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, following the release of the July CPI data which was below expectations [1][9]. Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [3]. - Housing costs were the main driver of the CPI increase, rising by 0.2%, while food prices remained stable and energy prices decreased by 1.1% [4]. Labor Market Insights - The average real weekly earnings increased by 1.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month in July, with the average hourly earnings rising by 1.2% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month. The average weekly earnings reached $388.01, an increase of $5.51 compared to the previous year [5]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 6.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.4%. For October, the probability of maintaining rates is 2.4%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut at 37.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 59.9% [5]. Stock Market Performance - On August 12, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 483.52 points (1.10%), the Nasdaq up 296.50 points (1.39%), and the S&P 500 up 72.37 points (1.13%). Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached all-time highs [1][9]. - Major tech stocks saw significant gains, with ON Semiconductor rising over 6%, Intel over 5%, and Meta approaching a market cap of $2 trillion [9]. Automotive Sector Developments - The prices of new cars remained unchanged due to tariffs, while used car and truck prices increased by 0.5%. Transportation and healthcare service prices both rose by 0.8% [4]. - Tesla's stock rose by 0.53%, with a notable increase in electric vehicle sales attributed to significant price cuts, coinciding with the expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits [11].

Group 1 - The rapid advancement of AI technology, exemplified by the release of GPT-5, contrasts with the slow adaptation in real-world applications, highlighting significant barriers to practical implementation [2][3][5] - The quality of official economic data in the U.S. is deteriorating, which raises concerns about the reliability of metrics that influence critical economic decisions such as interest rates and social security [5][9] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data collection methods have become increasingly reliant on estimations, with 35% of the data being approximated rather than directly collected, indicating potential inaccuracies in economic reporting [6][8][9] Group 2 - The recent non-farm payroll (NFP) report showed a disappointing job growth of only 73,000 positions in July, with significant downward revisions for previous months, marking one of the worst performances since the pandemic [9][10] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continues to use outdated methods for data collection, which introduces various uncontrollable factors that can skew results, such as response rates and the accuracy of reporting by businesses [11] - There is a growing trend in the U.K. towards automated data collection for CPI, utilizing supermarket scanner data to enhance accuracy and coverage, suggesting a potential path forward for improving economic data collection methods [15]

Group 1 - The US dollar index traded around 98.47, while spot silver opened at $37.92/oz and traded around $37.87/oz [1] - On July 16, the dollar index fell by 0.35% to close at 98.28, while spot silver rose by 0.52% to close at $37.89/oz [1] - COMEX silver inventory increased by 16.99 tons to 15,464.10 tons on July 16 [2] Group 2 - The market reacted to news of President Trump potentially firing Powell, leading to volatility in US stocks, bonds, and currencies, with gold prices surging [3] - The European Union proposed a nearly €2 trillion seven-year budget, including a €589.6 billion fund for competitiveness, prosperity, and security [3] - The US June PPI year-on-year rate was recorded at 2.3%, below the expected 2.5%, marking the lowest since September 2024 [3] Group 3 - Silver market opened at $37.708, reached a high of $38.079, and then fell to a low of $37.473 before closing at $37.897, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent mild increase in CPI data and its implications for gold trading, highlighting the current market volatility and the uncertainty surrounding potential breakout points for gold prices [1] Group 1 - CPI data has shown a moderate rise, which may influence gold market dynamics [1] - The article raises questions about whether traders should enter the market or adopt a cautious approach during this period of fluctuation [1] - A live session is being conducted by TTPS trading expert to provide insights on the gold market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, etc. It shows the price movements of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, and analyzes the impact of factors like weather, export data, and macro - economic indicators on the market [1][5][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. The price changes of major currency pairs are also provided [1]. Spot Market Conditions - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal rainfall and higher temperatures from July 20 - 24. Some areas in the US Midwest have received rainfall, and the overall weather conditions are favorable for crops [5][7]. - **Palm Oil**: ITS and AmSpec data show a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15. However, UOB Kay Hian analysts believe that exports may increase in July, and production is expected to rise while inventory may remain stable [8][9]. - **Soybeans**: NOPA data shows that US soybean crushing in June was 185.709 million bushels. Anec predicts an increase in Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in July. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed have decreased compared to last year [11][12]. - **Shipping**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index continued to rise, with freight rates for all types of ships increasing [13]. - **Trading Volume and Inventory**: On July 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the开机 rate of oil mills increased slightly. The port inventories of imported soybeans and soybean oil increased [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%. US economic data such as CPI, NY Fed Manufacturing Index, etc., are released. OPEC maintains its global crude oil demand growth forecasts. The economic data of the Eurozone shows positive trends [17][18]. - **Domestic**: The RMB depreciated against the US dollar on July 15. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan. China's Q2 GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and other economic indicators such as retail sales and industrial added - value were also released [20]. Fund Flows - On July 15, the futures market had a net inflow of 11.281 billion yuan, with 4.329 billion yuan in commodity futures (including net outflows in agricultural futures and net inflows in chemical, black - series, and metal futures) and 6.952 billion yuan in stock index futures [23]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

Group 1 - The CPI data has fallen short of expectations, indicating potential economic concerns [1] - There is speculation that gold bears may be approaching a significant support level at 3320 [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in silver prices, with the latest closing price at $37.70 per ounce, down 1.13% from the previous day [1] - As of July 15, the silver ETF holdings decreased to 14,856.02 tons, a reduction of 110.22 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The recent CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in June, which is the largest rise since January, leading to slight adjustments in market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain careful regarding interest rate cuts, despite the moderate inflation data [3] - The upcoming PPI data is anticipated to provide further market guidance, with potential implications for interest rate expectations and gold prices [3] - The silver market experienced volatility, opening at $38.16, reaching a high of $38.39, and closing at $37.70, indicating a significant downward movement after an initial rise [4]