格隆汇2月13日｜高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管Lindsay Rosner表示，鉴于1月CPI数据并未 如担忧那般强劲，美联储的"正常化"降息路径似乎更加清晰。这将取决于就业市场是否继续呈现改善迹 象，因为FOMC对劳动力市场疲软的敏感度很高。我们仍然预期美联储今年将降息两次，下一次降息将 在6月份进行。 ...

2月13日，美国1月未季调CPI年率从2.7%回落至2.4%，创2025年5月以来新低，市场预期中值2.5%。1月未季调核心CPI年率从2.6%回落至2.5%，创2021年 3月以来新低，符合市场预期。 CPI数据公布后，美元指数回落至97关口下方，美股三大期指温和反弹。现货黄金涨逾1%，现货白银涨幅扩大至近5%。两年期美债收益率跌至3.4%附 近，创去年10月以来新低。 据智通财经，美国利率期货小幅提高美联储6月放宽政策的概率至69%，高于CPI数据公布前的63%。交易员们预计美联储今年降息第三次的概率为50%。 在CPI数据公布后，2026年美联储降息幅度预期已升至61个基点，而此前仅为58个基点。 | W | | 伦敦会现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 4981.550 | 昨结 | | 4924.304 | 开营 4927.743 | | +57.246 | +1.16% | 总量(kq) 0.00 | | 现手 O | | 最高价 | 4999.940 | 持 仓 | 0 | A 물 0 | | ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，2月13日，美国利率期货显示，CPI数据公布后，市场预计2026年美联储将降息61个基 点；就在数据公布前，这一预期为58个基点。 ...

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货2月13日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计353559千克，今日仓单较上一 日增加3926千克。 沪银主力走势震荡偏弱，今日白银期货开盘报20400元/千克，最高触及20819元/千克，最低触及18930 元/千克，截止收盘报19782元/千克，下跌5.52%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 53806 | 0 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 25466 | 0 | | | 中工美供应链 | 237259 | 3706 | | | 合计 | 316531 | 3706 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 37028 | 220 | | 总计 | | 353559 | 3926 | 【基本面消息】 本周美国非农就业超预期，降息预期受到压制，市场等待今晚CPI数据。地缘前景仍存不确定性，短期 贵金属波动率逐渐下降，震荡等待驱动，保持观望。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that despite recent fluctuations in gold prices, the overall bullish trend remains intact, and the recent drop should be viewed as a potential buying opportunity [1][3][4] - Gold prices experienced a significant drop to a low of 4876, influenced by market reactions to artificial intelligence concerns, but this is considered an unfounded reason for such volatility [1][3] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a consolidation phase, with a trading range between 5100 and 4400, and a breakout above 5100 could lead to a stronger bullish trend [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold prices are advised to be cautious above 1135, indicating a potential consolidation phase rather than a strong upward movement [4] - Silver prices reached a high of 86, but it is recommended not to chase the price unless it breaks above 90, with a buying opportunity suggested around 75 [4] - The article emphasizes that any adjustments in silver prices could present buying opportunities, with a focus on long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations [4]

昨晚公布的美国非农数据，无论是新增就业人数还是失业率都好于预期;但，黄金白银波动有限。如我 们预期一样"几乎毫无影响力"。 不是非农就业数据不重要，而是当前市场已经不把非农数据当回事，包括接下来即将公布的CPI数据。 因为，市场的焦点在美伊局势，在美国不安分的总统特朗普。除非常规经济数据或消息爆冷，远远偏离 市场预期。 摘要周四(2月12日)欧洲时段，黄金白银连续两天小幅波动，和前几年比起来属于超级行情，但在近期 确实属于小幅波动行情。继续关注美伊局势，是以谈判达成协议收场还是直接开打，将决定黄金白银尤 其是黄金接下来一个时期的走势。 周四(2月12日)欧洲时段，黄金白银连续两天小幅波动，和前几年比起来属于超级行情，但在近期确实 属于小幅波动行情。继续关注美伊局势，是以谈判达成协议收场还是直接开打，将决定黄金白银尤其是 黄金接下来一个时期的走势。 【要闻速递】 【技术分析】 现货黄金：现货黄金价格在近期盘中交易中出现回落，暂时休整，并试图获得新的看涨动能，这或将有 助于其重新走高。 现货白银：现货白银价格在近期的日内交易中小幅回落，旨在重新整理其走势，并积蓄所需动能，以尝 试突破关键阻力位84.00美元。 黄 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs Asset Management analyst Kay Haigh believes there is still room for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - However, if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly rises, it may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai silver futures closed at 20,255 yuan per kilogram on February 5, with a daily decline of 10.85% and a trading volume of 1,653,202 contracts [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai was quoted at 26,300 yuan per kilogram, indicating a premium of 6,045 yuan per kilogram over the futures price [3] - The sentiment in the domestic market remains strong, with the silver premium maintaining at 3,300 yuan per gram, indicating a potential for upward movement despite recent volatility [5] Group 2 - The U.S. private sector added only 22,000 jobs in January, falling short of market expectations, and previous month's data was revised down [3] - The U.S. Labor Department is set to resume normal operations, with the non-farm payroll data scheduled for release on February 11 and CPI data on February 13 [3] - The large-cap tech stocks in the U.S. experienced significant declines, contributing to the volatility in silver prices, which have not stabilized above the $90 mark [5]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline in Australia's unemployment rate to 4.1% is likely to be welcomed by the Reserve Bank of Australia's Governor, Michele Bullock, as it allows the central bank to focus on the upcoming fourth-quarter CPI data, which will influence the decision on interest rate hikes in February [1] Group 1 - The unemployment rate in Australia has decreased to 4.1%, which is a significant development for the central bank [1] - Despite being a staunch inflation hawk, the Governor would feel pressure if the unemployment rate were to rise this year [1] - The central bank is aiming to regain control over inflation risks, with any unusual signs in trimmed mean inflation being critical for the February rate hike decision [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a strong upward trend this week, with significant movements including a rise on Monday and Tuesday, a pullback on Wednesday, and a strong rally on Friday following non-farm payroll data, ultimately closing the week with a bullish candlestick [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have been significantly delayed, with market predictions suggesting a potential delay until May or later, as major investment banks have adjusted their forecasts [2] - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. December CPI, with expectations of persistent high inflation; a core CPI monthly increase of 0.3% or more could strengthen the dollar, while a lower figure may boost gold prices [3] - Geopolitical risks are rising, with tensions from Trump's remarks on Greenland and ongoing protests in Iran, which could increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The current gold price movement is identified as part of a fifth wave upward structure, with critical support at 4274; if this level holds, further upward movement is anticipated [7] - Resistance levels to monitor include the previous high of 4550 and the 4580-4600 range, which is crucial for the next week [10] - The lower support range of 4405-4395 is significant, as it has shown strength after a recent breakout; if upward movement encounters resistance, adjustments may be necessary [10]