Market Performance Review - In October, the Shanghai gold futures experienced a "rise first, then fall, and finally stabilize" trend, with a cumulative increase of 5.27%[11] - As of October 31, the risk level of Shanghai gold reached 79.98, indicating a high-risk zone and a cooling market sentiment[15] - The actual interest rate remains a core anchor for gold prices, influenced by fluctuating inflation and monetary policy expectations[19] Event-Driven Analysis - The U.S. government shutdown at the beginning of October raised concerns about dollar credit, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe haven[19] - The easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine, reduced the risk premium associated with gold, contributing to its price decline mid-month[29] - Central bank gold purchases remain high, providing medium-term support for gold prices, although recent tax policy adjustments in China have weakened short-term physical demand[36] Future Outlook - In November, gold prices will be influenced by geopolitical developments, trade negotiations, and macroeconomic policies, with potential for continued high volatility[41] - Market expectations indicate a 70% probability of a 25bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which could support gold prices if inflation continues to decline[42] - The Huazhang Gold ETF (518880.SH) had a total market value of 81.334 billion yuan and a trading volume of 6.78 billion yuan as of October 31[48]