记者丨叶麦穗编辑丨包芳鸣 金珊 国庆中秋假期（下文简称"双节"）期间，黄金成为市场最靓的仔，海外市场的多重因素共同推动现货黄金站上4000美元/盎司的历史性关口，最高触及 4059.31美元/盎司，较节前上涨近5%。10月10日，黄金出现短线回调，截至17时30分左右，现货黄金涨0.55%，报价3997.68美元/盎司。 | ( W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | | | 3997.680 | | 昨结 | 3975.950 总量 | | | 0 | | +21.730 | +0.55% 开盘 3974.290 | | 现手 | | | O | | 最高价 | 4001.690 0 | 持 仓 | | タイ ឌ | | 0 | | 最低价 | 3946.590 0 | 墙 仓 | | 内 | 當 | 0 | | से स्थ | モ日 周K | 目K | | 月K | 童名 | (0) | | 叠加 | | | | 均价:0.000 | | | | 4005. ...

时隔十年，上证指数站上3900点之际，A股融资余额规模继续攀升。 10月9日单日融资净买额508亿元，创近1年新高，亦为历史次高。 两融余额单日增长额历史最高发生在2024年10月8日，单日激增1074.86亿元，创下历史最高纪录。 截至2025年10月9日，沪深京三市融资融券余额已达24292亿元，续创历史新高。 截至10月9日，杠杆资金买入额前10的的个股分别为：东方财富、中国平安、中信证券、贵州茅台、新 易盛、宁德时代、中际旭创、胜宏科技、中芯国际、比亚迪。 杠杆资金钟爱黄金ETF。杠杆资金买入额前10的的ETF分别为：华安黄金ETF、易方达黄金ETF、华夏 恒生ETF、华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、国泰证券ETF、博时黄金ETF基金、南方中证500ETF、海富通短融 ETF、易方达H股ETF、南方中证1000ETF。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 融资融券余额(亿元) | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 518880.SH | 更蛋ETF | 75.12 | 华安基金 | | 159934.SZ | 更金ETF | 58.40 | 易方达基金 | | 159920. ...

近期，国际金价屡创新高，10月8日国际金价更是首次站上4000美元整数关口，境内金价亦同步走强， 贵金属市场整体呈现上行格局。在金价驱动下，境内黄金ETF规模迅速扩张，多个产品突破百亿元大 关。产业链相关上市公司股价亦大幅上涨，获得了机构投资者的高度关注。多家黄金类上市公司被知名 机构调研，代表性黄金股ETF的单月规模也增加逾50亿元。 有机构分析指出，美联储降息预期与美元信用裂痕持续扩张，共同推动黄金进入新一轮上行周期。历史 经验显示，衰退或滞涨时期黄金表现往往优于其他资产。当前，市场普遍认为，黄金正处于"第三浪"主 升行情初期，长期储备价值和配置优势有望进一步凸显。 金价持续上涨 资金加速回流 证券时报记者注意到，随着黄金价格不断上涨，黄金ETF的规模在近一个月内再次获得显著增长。 数据显示，截至9月30日，代表性产品中已有5只规模突破百亿元，华安黄金ETF规模达到682.63亿元， 较此前600亿元关口继续扩张。数据显示，最近一个月，华安黄金ETF规模增长了108.62亿元，国泰黄 金ETF和博时黄金ETF分别增加29.54亿元和23.62亿元。 华泰证券研究所表示，今年境内黄金ETF的资金流入情况受金 ...

南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对《证券日报》记者表示，国内"双节"期间，国际市场贵金属价格继续大幅上 抬，其中COMEX黄金期价创历史新高，COMEX白银期价创出近13年来新高，主要是海外市场避险需求强劲推动，以及市场对 通胀与经济风险担忧并存下的资产配置需求提升所致。综合来看，本次美国联邦政府"停摆"事件引发的风险不容忽视。"预计 贵金属强势表现仍有望延续，但短期快速上涨后的回调风险同样存在，不排除因部分资金获利了结而引发价格调整的可能 性。"夏莹莹说。 近期，国际金价接连走强带动国内黄金资产走高，如上海期货交易所黄金期货主力2512合约在9月30日盘中创出880元/克 的高价，这也是该合约上市以来的最高点；同时，上海文华财经资讯股份有限公司数据显示，当日黄金期货沉淀资金量高达近 1300亿元，当日净流入资金近200亿元。 此外，黄金主题基金也表现出较强"吸金"能力。Wind资讯数据显示，截至10月8日，53只黄金主题基金合计总规模为2469 亿元，较年初增长近1300亿元，其中多只产品规模超过100亿元；从单只产品表现来看，目前华安黄金ETF规模近600亿元，较 年初增加超过310亿元。同时，从收 ...

来源：市场资讯 看黄金 （来源：华安基金许之彦） 金秋十月 现货黄金突破 4000美元/盎司！ 华 安 E T F 智 诚 相 伴 第一，要关注美国政府停摆的变化。若重新恢复秩序，则可能短期的避险情绪有所消退。 国庆期间，伦敦现货黄金价格突破4000美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高。本轮黄金价格上涨受到全球投资人关注，背 后是多重因素的共同影响的结果，也符合华安黄金研究团队对于"黄金新周期"的判断。 1、 黄金上涨分析： 首先从短期来看，本轮金价的直接刺激因素来源于美国政府意外"停摆"。因美国国会未能通过临时拨款法案，导致 联邦政府部分机构暂停运转，对美国经济形成拖累。除了美国政坛以外，也包括法国、日本等政局变化。综合来 看，黄金的分散风险属性得到体现。 第二从中期的交易节奏看，我们在此前8月下旬Jackson hole会议中就提示，美联储9月有望开启降息，最新的降息预 期也支持我们对于降息的判断。根据历史经验，黄金在降息周期中，能够有效应对美元走弱和美债利率走低。 第三是黄金的长期逻辑，去美元化和央行购金节奏持续。华安黄金研究团队在2023年提出"黄金开启新周期"，其背 后反应的是黄金作为供需紧平衡资产，近三年 ...

Core Insights - The domestic ETF market in China has experienced rapid growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with the number of ETF products exceeding 1,300 and the total scale surpassing 5.6 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025, making China the largest ETF market in Asia, surpassing Japan [1][2] - The shift in investor demographics towards younger and more online participants has contributed to the increasing popularity of ETFs, which offer a convenient way to invest in specific sectors [1][4] - Future innovations in the ETF market are expected to be driven by Smart Beta strategies, index-enhanced ETFs, and cross-border ETFs, supported by stable long-term investments from institutions like Central Huijin [1][5] Market Expansion - From the end of 2020 to the end of Q3 2025, the number of domestic ETF products grew from 378 to 1,325, while the total fund size increased from 1.11 trillion yuan to 5.63 trillion yuan, marking a significant expansion [2] - In 2023 alone, the ETF market saw the addition of 279 new products and an increase of 1.9 trillion yuan in fund size, both setting historical records for a single year [2] Popular Products - Several industry-themed ETFs have emerged as "blockbuster products," indicating that ETFs are becoming essential tools for investors to participate in sector trends. Notable examples include the Fuguo CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF, which has become the largest Hong Kong-themed ETF, and others focusing on sectors like finance and technology [2] Investor Demographics - The number of ETF holders has significantly increased, with notable growth in specific ETFs such as the Huaan Gold ETF and the Huaxia CSI Robotics ETF, which saw increases of nearly 170,000 and over 150,000 holders, respectively [3] - The diversity of ETF investors has expanded to include various institutional and individual participants, such as Central Huijin, insurance companies, pension funds, and retail investors [3] Investment Trends - The trend towards "packaged" investment strategies through ETFs is gaining traction, as they allow investors to easily access core assets in specific sectors without the need to select individual stocks, aligning with the demand for stable investment approaches [4] - The rise of younger investors in the ETF market is notable, with "post-80s" investors making up 29.98% of the market, "post-90s" at 22.15%, and "post-00s" showing a staggering growth rate of 212% [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.52% to close at 3882.78, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.35% to close at 13526.51, and the ChiNext Index remained unchanged at 3238.16. The total trading volume of A-shares in the two markets was 2.1976 trillion yuan. The top-performing sectors were non-ferrous metals (3.22%), national defense and military industry (2.59%), and real estate (2.12%), while the worst-performing sectors were communications (-1.83%), non-bank finance (-1.14%), and comprehensive (-1.06%) [2][6]. Stock ETF - The top-traded stock ETFs today were Huaxia CSI A500 ETF, which rose 0.77% with a discount rate of 0.80%; Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 ETF, which rose 1.75% with a discount rate of 1.70%; and Guotai CSI A500 ETF, which rose 0.59% with a discount rate of 0.71% [3][7]. Bond ETF - The top-traded bond ETFs today were Haifutong CSI Short-term Financing Bond ETF, which rose 0.05% with a discount rate of 0.04%; Guotai CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF, which rose 0.05% with a discount rate of 0.04%; and Huatianfu CSI AAA Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF, which rose 0.03% with a discount rate of -0.01% [4][9]. Gold ETF - Today, the price of gold AU9999 rose 1.04%, and the price of Shanghai Gold rose 1.16%. The top-traded gold ETFs were Huaan Gold ETF, which rose 0.97% with a discount rate of 0.98%; Boshi Gold ETF, which rose 1.26% with a discount rate of 1.27%; and E Fund Gold ETF, which rose 1.23% with a discount rate of 1.20% [12]. Commodity Futures ETF - Today, Dacheng Non-ferrous Metals Futures ETF rose 0.40% with a discount rate of 0.66%; Jianxin Yisheng Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF fell 1.08% with a discount rate of -1.13%; and Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF remained unchanged with a discount rate of 2.75% [13]. Cross-border ETF - The previous trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.15%, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.48%, the S&P 500 rose 0.26%, and the German DAX rose 0.02%. Today, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.87%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.07%. The top-traded cross-border ETFs today were E Fund CSI Hong Kong Securities Investment Theme ETF, which rose 1.35% with a discount rate of 0.67%; GF CSI Hong Kong Innovative Drugs ETF, which rose 2.89% with a discount rate of 2.86%; and Huatai-PineBridge Hang Seng Technology ETF, which rose 2.02% with a discount rate of 2.22% [15]. Money Market ETF - The top-traded money market ETFs today were Yin Hua Day Profit ETF, Huabao Tianyi ETF, and Jianxin Tianyi Money Market ETF [17].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a strong rebound on September 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1% and the ChiNext Index increasing by almost 3%, indicating a positive market sentiment towards investments, particularly in gold ETFs [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huazhang Gold ETF (518880) closed at 8.259 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.21% and a trading volume of 4.381 billion yuan, leading the category of gold ETFs in terms of scale [1][2]. - Despite a net outflow of 721 million yuan over the past 60 trading days, there has been a significant inflow of funds in the short to medium term, with net inflows of 4.112 billion yuan over the last 20 days and 1.188 billion yuan over the last 10 days [2]. Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - The international gold market has shown strong performance, with spot gold prices surpassing 3,800 USD per ounce, contributing to the bullish sentiment in domestic gold ETFs [1][3]. - Factors driving the increase in gold prices include rising global investment demand and heightened market risk aversion due to potential U.S. government shutdowns and challenges to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy independence [3]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Goldman Sachs has a bullish long-term outlook for gold prices, predicting they could reach 4,000 USD per ounce by 2026, with potential scenarios suggesting prices could rise to 4,500 USD or even 5,000 USD under extreme conditions [3]. - The Huazhang Gold ETF, established in July 2013, has a current circulation scale of 65.627 billion yuan and a cumulative return rate of 208.28%, making it a core tool for investors looking to allocate gold assets [4].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of slowing down, with domestic production, consumption, and investment growth rates declining, and GDP growth in Q3 2025 expected to be below 5% [4][20][21] - The global economic growth is projected to slow down to 3.0% in 2025, according to the IMF, with advanced economies experiencing a decline to 1.5% [4][23][24] - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend in 2025, with significant gains in technology, communication, and non-ferrous metal sectors, and is expected to maintain a "slow bull" market in Q4 [5][27][28] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend in government bond yields, but the space for further decline is limited, and attention should be paid to interest rate strategies and long-term bonds [5][8][10] - The commodity market, particularly gold, is expected to remain bullish in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and central bank gold purchases [6][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural opportunities in the equity market, particularly in technology and policy-driven sectors, while adopting a neutral to slightly bullish allocation strategy [7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, surpassing $3,790 per ounce, is driven by three key factors: expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and weakening dollar credibility [1][3][4]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - **Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations**: Since August 2025, U.S. inflation data has eased, leading to a market expectation of over 90% for a rate cut in September. Historically, gold performs strongly during rate cut cycles. Concerns over potential manipulation of Fed policies have also led to a loss of confidence in the dollar, driving funds towards gold as a safe haven [4]. - **Geopolitical Conflicts**: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and heightened tensions in the Middle East, along with uncertainties surrounding U.S. election policies, have directly contributed to the rise in gold prices [5]. - **Weakening Dollar Credibility**: The U.S. national debt has exceeded $37 trillion, significantly surpassing market expectations. Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank having added gold for ten consecutive months, marking a shift where gold's share in reserves has surpassed that of the euro [7]. Group 2: Investment Options for Individuals - **Gold ETFs**: These have low entry barriers and high liquidity, such as the Huaan Gold ETF (code 518880), which is directly linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange's AU99.99 spot contracts. The advantages include a minimum investment of 1 gram and low transaction fees of 0.04%, with T+0 trading support. However, short-term price fluctuations can be influenced by market sentiment [10]. - **Physical Gold**: Suitable for long-term holding, options include bank gold bars, gold accumulation plans, and branded gold jewelry. It's important to note that jewelry often carries a high premium (approximately 15% processing fee), and recovery may involve discounts. Accumulation gold is recommended for dollar-cost averaging [12]. - **Gold Stocks**: These offer high volatility and potential for significant returns, represented by companies like Western Gold and Huayu Mining. However, they are subject to broader market performance and company-specific factors, leading to greater price fluctuations compared to gold itself [14]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - **Avoiding High Prices**: Current gold prices are at historical highs, and short-term corrections may occur due to Federal Reserve policy changes or easing geopolitical tensions. For instance, gold prices fell from $3,500 to $3,120 in April 2024, a decline of 11% [17]. - **Gradual Investment**: Implementing a dollar-cost averaging strategy through regular investments in gold ETFs or accumulation gold can help smooth out purchase costs, such as investing $500 monthly [18]. - **Dynamic Adjustments**: If gold prices exceed $4,000, partial profit-taking may be advisable while maintaining a core position. It is recommended to limit gold allocation to 5%-10% of total household assets rather than making concentrated bets [19].