Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to increased caution among institutional and individual investors regarding gold asset allocation, particularly with a notable outflow from gold ETFs [1][5][6] Price Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a decline from May 7 to May 19, with the London spot gold price reaching a high of $3345.4 per ounce on May 22, marking a 3.31% increase from May 20 to 22 [2][3] - The previous two weeks saw a significant drop of 5.88%, with prices falling to a low of $3120.2 per ounce [2][3] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing cautious attitude among investors towards gold, as evidenced by a shift from net inflows to net outflows in gold ETFs since April 22, with a notable outflow of 31 billion yuan from nine out of thirteen ETFs from May 1 to 22 [6][7] - The market sentiment has shifted towards a more bearish outlook, with increased short positions in gold and a decrease in long positions [6][7] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term demand for gold remains strong due to ongoing global economic uncertainties, inflation expectations, and central bank policies [4][8] - Analysts suggest that the fundamental logic supporting gold as an investment has not changed, and long-term capital continues to flow into gold-related assets [8] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical risks, including the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and tensions in the Middle East, have provided support for gold prices [3][4] - The potential for a "global capital flow transformation" has been noted, as investors shift from traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and bonds to gold [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices has led to market divergence, with experts emphasizing that gold should be viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency devaluation rather than a short-term trading tool [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have reached over 60 historical highs, with more than 20 records set in 2025 alone, despite a recent pullback to around $3,200 per ounce, resulting in an approximate 60% increase in the market so far [1]. - The World Gold Council's analysis indicates that central bank purchases contributed over 10% to the short-term price fluctuations, while geopolitical risk factors accounted for 9% [1]. - The shift from net outflows to net inflows in gold ETFs contributed approximately 5.6% to the price increase [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The demand for gold has been bolstered by increasing central bank purchases and the growth of domestic gold-related ETFs, which have expanded from around 70 billion yuan to nearly 150 billion yuan [2]. - Historical data shows that gold has delivered an annualized return of nearly 9% over the past 50 years, with recent trends of de-dollarization and rising tariffs further enhancing its appeal as an investment [2]. - Experts note that gold, unlike traditional currencies, does not generate interest or dividends, making its value dependent on the next buyer's willingness to pay [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The gold market is characterized by high volatility and a complex set of influencing factors, with geopolitical risks providing upward pressure on prices [3]. - Historical trends suggest that while gold prices may rise in the long term, they can also experience significant corrections, as seen after the Bretton Woods system collapse [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has regained attention as a key asset for investors due to the weakening trust in the US dollar, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset in the current economic climate [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The financial, monetary, safe-haven, and commodity attributes of gold collectively influence its market trends [2] - Recent price increases are driven by three main factors: pricing logic, central bank gold purchases, and skepticism towards the US dollar system [2] - The rise in gold prices is linked to heightened geopolitical risks and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, which has intensified since 2022 [2][3] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Market Dynamics - As of April 2023, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for six months, with gold now constituting 6.8% of total reserves [4] - Global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in Q1 2023, aligning with the trend of over 1,000 tons purchased annually from 2022 to 2024, significantly surpassing the average of 473 tons from 2010 to 2021 [4] - The participation of individual investors in gold ETFs has surged, with over 41 million investors involved, reflecting a growing acceptance of gold as an investment tool [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - Despite recent volatility, gold is viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency depreciation and economic uncertainty [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold still holds long-term allocation value, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - A recommended allocation of 5-10% in gold can effectively diversify risk and enhance portfolio performance, given its low correlation with other assets [6]