专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 近几年的黄金，堪称"金光闪闪"，近1年伦敦金现、上海金涨幅分别为41.33%、40.36%。高光行情下， 投资者对黄金资产的关注度也与日俱增。本期《投资"建"解》，一起来唠唠黄金那些事。 （数据来源：WIND，统计区间：2024年9月3日-2025年9月2日。伦敦金现/上海金2020年-2024年、2025 年上半年涨跌幅依次为25.07%/14.61%、-3.60%/-4.73%、-0.35%/9.75%、13.16%/17.17%、 27.23%/28.14%、25.84%/23.80%。指数数据仅供参考，不作为任何投资建议或收益暗示。指数过往涨幅 不预示其未来表现，也不代表跟踪该指数的指数基金未来业绩。） Q1：影响黄金价格的因素有哪些？ 长周期来看，影响黄金价格的因素主要包括通胀水平、实际利率、美元走势等。 通胀水平 黄金价格与通胀水平一般正相关。 黄金属于大宗商品，具备保值属性，在通胀上行周期，黄金能一定程度上对冲货币贬值损失，金价往往 有所上涨。 （数据来源：WIND，统计区间：2015年8月1日-2025年7月31日。指数数据仅供参考 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market weakened in Q2, creating conditions for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts, while the trade environment has stabilized since July, indicating marginal improvements in the economy [1] - Recommendations include focusing on upstream resource products (copper, aluminum, oil and petrochemicals) and capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks, forklifts), as well as intermediate products (steel) [1] - Future equity investments are expected to outperform debt investments, with non-bank financials benefiting from a bottoming out of capital returns [1] Group 2 - The China Glass Fiber Industry Association, along with nine companies, issued a "anti-involution" competition initiative, leading to a price recovery of 5% to 10% for previously pressured yarn products [3] - The glass fiber industry has a favorable competitive landscape, with leading companies showing strong market influence and a collaborative approach to resist vicious price competition [3] - The recent price recovery is expected to improve industry profitability, particularly for leading companies with advantages in product structure, production costs, and market layout [3] Group 3 - Gold prices have been rising, with COMEX gold reaching a new historical high, and domestic gold ETF products seeing a net inflow of over 10 billion shares since September [4] - Global central banks are increasingly purchasing gold, indicating a shift in the international reserve system towards a diversified structure, with gold serving as a "safe haven" and "stabilizing anchor" during this transition [3] Group 4 - The service consumption sector is crucial for optimizing supply, accelerating industrial upgrades, and achieving new and old kinetic energy conversion, with new supportive measures expected to be announced in September [6] - The upcoming policies aim to enhance high-quality service supply and promote orderly openings in sectors like the internet and culture, while encouraging foreign investment in new consumption areas [6] - The solid-state battery sector has shown strong performance, with a 22.91% increase in the concept index, driven by favorable policies and accelerating commercialization [6] Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index remains in a sideways trend, with over 70% of stocks having fallen to last December's valuation levels, raising concerns about potential further declines [10] - The consumer discretionary and resource sectors are considered overvalued, while essential consumer sectors are undervalued, indicating a potential shift in investment focus [10] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors are currently leading the market, supported by recent policy implementations and technological advancements, with room for valuation improvement [10]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张玫 北京报道 "通过这场策略会，我好像找到了后续的投资方向……"有参会人士在会后表示。 2025年服贸会已经结束，但值得注意的是，9月12日，建信基金在服贸会现场举办了一场名为"信任的力 量"的策略会，会议对2025年下半年宏观经济与资产配置方向进行分析。 建信基金认为，科技板块与黄金资产下半年或可重点关注，而多元资产配置策略仍是应对复杂市场环境 的核心手段。 看好科技投资主线 建信基金数量投资部基金经理张溢麟在会上表示，科技领域方面，科创板已成为A股市场重要组成部 分。wind数据显示，截至2025年8月底，科创板上市公司达589家，总市值突破10万亿元，逐渐形成以科 创50、科创100、科创200为代表的多层次指数体系。 同时，张翠霞也提示，需关注部分高估值科技股年报业绩兑现压力及全球供应链变化带来的阶段性波 动。建议操作上以逢低吸纳为主，避免追高。她强调，资金正全面聚焦科技成长赛道，产业链资金扩散 效应将推动趋势性行情，科创板与创业板中的科技创新型企业将成为10倍牛股的摇篮，值得重点跟踪。 看好哑铃型配置结构 建信基金在其名为"星火科创"的2025年下半年 ...

Group 1 - Recent gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with a cumulative increase of 1.86% in August, indicating a warming market sentiment and a strengthening short-term trend [1] - The dovish signals from Powell at the Jackson Hole conference have reinforced expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar and enhanced asset allocation value for gold [1] - Geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, such as Switzerland's gold export issues with the US and tariffs imposed by the US on India, have increased risk aversion, providing support for gold prices [1] Group 2 - As of September 3, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index has surged by 3.14%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Silver and Nonferrous Metals (up 10.09%) and Western Gold (up 10.00%) [3] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund has seen a recent price increase of 3.18%, with a weekly cumulative increase of 10.03%, ranking third among comparable funds [3] - The Gold Stock ETF Fund's latest scale reached 72.56 million, marking a one-year high, and its latest share count reached 50.41 million, a three-month high [3] Group 3 - The Gold Stock ETF Fund has recorded a net value increase of 60.99% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 16.59% since inception [4] - The fund has a historical one-year profit probability of 100.00%, with an average monthly return of 8.13% during the months it has increased [4] - The fund's Sharpe ratio stands at 1.51, ranking it second among comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [5] Group 4 - The Gold Stock ETF Fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, closely tracking the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 66.52% of the total, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to increased caution among institutional and individual investors regarding gold asset allocation, particularly with a notable outflow from gold ETFs [1][5][6] Price Fluctuations - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a decline from May 7 to May 19, with the London spot gold price reaching a high of $3345.4 per ounce on May 22, marking a 3.31% increase from May 20 to 22 [2][3] - The previous two weeks saw a significant drop of 5.88%, with prices falling to a low of $3120.2 per ounce [2][3] Investor Sentiment - There is a growing cautious attitude among investors towards gold, as evidenced by a shift from net inflows to net outflows in gold ETFs since April 22, with a notable outflow of 31 billion yuan from nine out of thirteen ETFs from May 1 to 22 [6][7] - The market sentiment has shifted towards a more bearish outlook, with increased short positions in gold and a decrease in long positions [6][7] Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term demand for gold remains strong due to ongoing global economic uncertainties, inflation expectations, and central bank policies [4][8] - Analysts suggest that the fundamental logic supporting gold as an investment has not changed, and long-term capital continues to flow into gold-related assets [8] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical risks, including the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and tensions in the Middle East, have provided support for gold prices [3][4] - The potential for a "global capital flow transformation" has been noted, as investors shift from traditional safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and bonds to gold [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices has led to market divergence, with experts emphasizing that gold should be viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency devaluation rather than a short-term trading tool [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, gold prices have reached over 60 historical highs, with more than 20 records set in 2025 alone, despite a recent pullback to around $3,200 per ounce, resulting in an approximate 60% increase in the market so far [1]. - The World Gold Council's analysis indicates that central bank purchases contributed over 10% to the short-term price fluctuations, while geopolitical risk factors accounted for 9% [1]. - The shift from net outflows to net inflows in gold ETFs contributed approximately 5.6% to the price increase [1]. Group 2: Investment Perspective - The demand for gold has been bolstered by increasing central bank purchases and the growth of domestic gold-related ETFs, which have expanded from around 70 billion yuan to nearly 150 billion yuan [2]. - Historical data shows that gold has delivered an annualized return of nearly 9% over the past 50 years, with recent trends of de-dollarization and rising tariffs further enhancing its appeal as an investment [2]. - Experts note that gold, unlike traditional currencies, does not generate interest or dividends, making its value dependent on the next buyer's willingness to pay [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The gold market is characterized by high volatility and a complex set of influencing factors, with geopolitical risks providing upward pressure on prices [3]. - Historical trends suggest that while gold prices may rise in the long term, they can also experience significant corrections, as seen after the Bretton Woods system collapse [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has regained attention as a key asset for investors due to the weakening trust in the US dollar, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset in the current economic climate [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The financial, monetary, safe-haven, and commodity attributes of gold collectively influence its market trends [2] - Recent price increases are driven by three main factors: pricing logic, central bank gold purchases, and skepticism towards the US dollar system [2] - The rise in gold prices is linked to heightened geopolitical risks and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization, which has intensified since 2022 [2][3] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Market Dynamics - As of April 2023, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for six months, with gold now constituting 6.8% of total reserves [4] - Global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in Q1 2023, aligning with the trend of over 1,000 tons purchased annually from 2022 to 2024, significantly surpassing the average of 473 tons from 2010 to 2021 [4] - The participation of individual investors in gold ETFs has surged, with over 41 million investors involved, reflecting a growing acceptance of gold as an investment tool [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - Despite recent volatility, gold is viewed as a long-term asset for hedging against currency depreciation and economic uncertainty [6] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold still holds long-term allocation value, especially in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions [6] - A recommended allocation of 5-10% in gold can effectively diversify risk and enhance portfolio performance, given its low correlation with other assets [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [8][30]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 25.935 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 36.81% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 67.19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion RMB, up 46.62% year-over-year and 15.86% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - The controlling shareholder, Shandong Gold Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 500 million RMB and 1 billion RMB over the next 12 months, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term development [3]. - The report emphasizes that gold prices are currently on an upward trend, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the depreciation of the US dollar, which enhances the asset allocation value of gold [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's self-produced gold output was 11.87 tons, with sales of 10.99 tons, showing a slight decrease in production but a significant increase in sales [2]. - The average gold price in Q1 2025 was 672.13 RMB per gram, a year-over-year increase of 37.2%, contributing to the rise in net profit [2]. Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholder's planned stock purchase is a strategic move to bolster confidence in the company's future performance [3]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued appreciation in gold prices, suggesting that gold stocks remain a valuable investment option [1][4]. - The company is projected to achieve an EPS of 1.45 RMB in 2025, with a significant increase in net profit forecasted for the coming years [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the company's valuation, setting a target price of 36.98 RMB for 2025, based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.82 [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 25.935 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 36.81% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 67.19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.026 billion RMB, up 46.62% year-over-year and 15.86% quarter-over-quarter [1][2] - The company plans to increase its gold production to no less than 50 tons in 2025, despite a slight year-over-year decrease in self-produced gold output [2] - The controlling shareholder, Shandong Gold Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 500 million RMB and 1 billion RMB over the next 12 months, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term development [3] - The report emphasizes that gold prices are currently on an upward trend, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a shift in asset preferences away from the US dollar, enhancing the investment value of gold and related assets [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects the company's EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.45 RMB, 2.03 RMB, and 2.34 RMB respectively, representing increases of 23.9%, 18.7%, and 17.6% compared to previous estimates [5] - The target price for the company's A-shares is set at 36.98 RMB, with a corresponding H-share target price of 24.40 HKD, based on a price-to-book ratio of 3.82 for 2025 [5][9] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 6.508 billion RMB in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 120.48% year-over-year [7]

山金国际发布一季报，25Q1 实现营收43.21 亿元（yoy+55.84%），归母净利6.94 亿元 （yoy+37.91%），扣非净利7.04 亿元（yoy+40.87%）。金价持续强势，公司有明确量增规划，且业绩 兑现好，维持买入评级。 产销同比有下滑，但成本亦下降，业绩表现优异据公告，25Q1实现矿产金产/销量分别为1.77/2.03吨 （yoy -10.6%/-11.0%），销售成本（合并摊销后）147.87 元/克，相对去年同期156.32 元/克下降5.4%。 虽然产销同比有下滑，但成本亦有下降，最后金价上涨在业绩增长中基本得以体现；据wind，25Q1 金 价均价672.13 元/克（yoy+37.2%），公司25Q1归母净利润yoy+37.91%，公司业绩表现优异。 公司产量规划明确，年初收购云南两金矿探矿权根据23 年11 月发展战略规划纲要，公司计划十四五末 矿产金产量达12 吨，金资源量及储量达240 吨。2025 年1 月，公司与芒市海华开发有限公司签订协议， 收购其持有的云南西部矿业有限公司52.0709%股权，该公司持有云南省潞西市大岗坝地区金矿勘探探 矿权；同月，控股子公司芒市 ...