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国信证券:维持周大福“优于大市”评级 定价黄金首饰继续领先增长
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-20 06:36
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the rising gold prices this year are expected to enhance the company's gross profit margin, with a long-term growth outlook for gold prices amid global risk aversion, leading to an "outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929) [1] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to HKD 77.85 billion, 87.11 billion, and 95.43 billion, respectively, up from previous estimates of 74.25 billion, 84.14 billion, and 93.28 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9, 18.7, and 17.1 times [1] Group 2 - For the quarter ending September 2025, the company reported a 4.1% year-on-year increase in overall retail value, recovering from a 1.9% decline in the previous quarter, with mainland China retail value up 3% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets up 11.4% [2] - Same-store sales turned positive across all markets, with a 7.6% increase in mainland China direct stores (9.9% excluding watch business) and an 8.6% increase in franchise stores, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a 6.2% increase [2] - The company adjusted its store strategy by closing 296 underperforming stores, ending the quarter with a total of 6,041 stores, while also enhancing the new image store initiative, opening one new store in Beijing, bringing the total to eight [2] - The jewelry market is benefiting from dual demands for value preservation and fashion, with the company leveraging its product development, channel efficiency, and brand strength to achieve positive same-store sales [2] - The outlook for the gold jewelry industry is optimistic, driven by the demand for value appreciation and the rise of self-consumption among younger consumers, with the company focusing on R&D and high-margin products to sustain growth [2]