11月下旬，周大福发布了2026财年上半年业绩报告（即2025年4至9月业绩数据），周大福整体业绩呈稳健复苏态势，各市场同店销售也重拾增长，品牌向 高端转型初见成效，品牌在产品定价、渠道布局等多方面转变，对集团盈利能力提升持续产生正面效益。 一、整体业绩：营收减速下滑，企业降本增效稳定盈利能力 周大福珠宝集团自2024年开始，半年度营收持续下跌，2025财年（即2024年4月至2025年3月）总营收896亿港元，同比下跌17.5%。2025年4至9月，周大 福总营收达到390亿港元，同比下滑1.1%，营收下滑的速度明显放缓。 2025年4至9月，集团净利润与去年同期持平，净利润率为6.6%，集团毛利收入同比减少5亿港元，毛利率较去年同期下跌0.9个百分点。 此外，本次财报显示，周大福经营溢利达到68亿港元，同比上浮0.7%，净盈利率提升0.3个百分点。 企业面临营收下滑压力的同时，盈利能力仍较为稳定，由此可见，企业在成本管控及业务结构上具备一定优势。 2022财年至2026财年的销售及行政开支走势图显示，周大福持续降低销售成本并保证行政费用的长期稳定。2025年4至9月的销售及行政支出共计54.5亿港 元，同 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and growth outlook discussed in the report [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook has shown a recovery in same-store sales, with a notable increase in retail value and a positive consumer response despite high gold prices [2]. - The company has optimized its product structure, with a significant increase in the sales of priced jewelry, which has enhanced brand strength [3]. - Continuous optimization of channels and the introduction of new store formats are accelerating the brand transformation [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 H1, Chow Tai Fook reported revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 2.534 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 0.2% [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the mainland China market accounted for 82.6% of total sales, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, while sales outside mainland China increased by 6.5% [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The sales of priced jewelry in mainland China increased by 16.1%, while the sales of gold jewelry decreased by 5.8% [3]. - The launch of the high-end jewelry series "He Mei Dong Fang" has demonstrated strong demand, with nearly 200 pieces sold during the promotional event [3]. - The company has also introduced new jadeite designs and collaborated with notable brands to enhance its product offerings [3]. Operational Efficiency - Chow Tai Fook has optimized its store network, closing a net of 611 stores in FY2026 H1, resulting in a total of 5,663 stores [4]. - The gross profit margin for FY2026 H1 was 30.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower margins in retail due to gold price fluctuations [5]. - The company has successfully reduced its inventory turnover days to approximately 424 days, a decrease of about 33 days year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [5]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Chow Tai Fook for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 7.980 billion, HKD 9.110 billion, and HKD 10.296 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7X, 15.5X, and 13.7X [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the rising gold prices this year are expected to enhance the company's gross profit margin, with a long-term growth outlook for gold prices amid global risk aversion, leading to an "outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929) [1] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to HKD 77.85 billion, 87.11 billion, and 95.43 billion, respectively, up from previous estimates of 74.25 billion, 84.14 billion, and 93.28 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9, 18.7, and 17.1 times [1] Group 2 - For the quarter ending September 2025, the company reported a 4.1% year-on-year increase in overall retail value, recovering from a 1.9% decline in the previous quarter, with mainland China retail value up 3% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets up 11.4% [2] - Same-store sales turned positive across all markets, with a 7.6% increase in mainland China direct stores (9.9% excluding watch business) and an 8.6% increase in franchise stores, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a 6.2% increase [2] - The company adjusted its store strategy by closing 296 underperforming stores, ending the quarter with a total of 6,041 stores, while also enhancing the new image store initiative, opening one new store in Beijing, bringing the total to eight [2] - The jewelry market is benefiting from dual demands for value preservation and fashion, with the company leveraging its product development, channel efficiency, and brand strength to achieve positive same-store sales [2] - The outlook for the gold jewelry industry is optimistic, driven by the demand for value appreciation and the rise of self-consumption among younger consumers, with the company focusing on R&D and high-margin products to sustain growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold jewelry industry is facing significant challenges due to high gold prices, leading to decreased consumer purchasing enthusiasm and declining revenues for many companies [2][4]. Industry Overview - Gold prices have recently risen, with spot gold reported at $3,338 per ounce and Shanghai Gold Exchange opening at 792.86 yuan per gram [1]. - Despite high gold prices, consumer demand for gold jewelry has decreased, with China's gold consumption in Q1 2024 at 290.492 tons, down 5.96% year-on-year [2]. Company Performance - Major gold jewelry companies are reporting declines in revenue and profit. For instance, Zhou Dasheng's Q1 2025 revenue was 2.673 billion yuan, down 47.28% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 11.25% [2]. - Lao Feng Xiang reported a revenue of 17.521 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 31.64% year-on-year, and a net profit drop of 23.55% [3]. - Li Jia, a jewelry store operator, noted that business has significantly declined compared to previous years, with low transaction volumes despite high foot traffic during the May Day holiday [4]. Market Trends - The high gold prices are constraining consumer purchases, leading to a shift in strategy among gold jewelry companies. Many are focusing on high-end markets to enhance brand value [6]. - Companies like Lao Pu Gold have seen success, with a revenue increase of 167.5% in 2024, while others are closing stores [5][6]. - Pricing strategies are evolving, with companies increasingly offering "fixed-price" gold jewelry that allows for greater design elements and higher margins [7][8]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are currently hesitant to purchase gold jewelry unless it is for essential needs or investment purposes due to high prices [4]. - The trend of fixed-price gold jewelry is gaining traction, with some brands reporting significant sales growth in this category despite overall market challenges [7][9].