国信证券发布研报称，维持周大福(01929)"优于大市"评级。考虑到高毛利定价首饰产品的占比进一步 提升，该行上调公司2026-2028财年归母净利润至86.37/96.46/105.59亿港元(前值分别为77.85/87.11/95.43 亿港元)，对应PE分别为15.7/14/12.8倍。 风险提示 公司发布2025年10-12月未经审核的主要经营数据，整体零售值同比增长17.8%，环比7-9月4.1%的增长 加速13.7pct。其中中国内地市场零售值增长16.9%，中国香港、中国澳门及其他市场零售值增长 22.9%。 零售方面观点 1)同店方面，中国内地直营店的同店销售增长21.4%，环比7-9月加速13.8pct;加盟店同店销售增长 26.3%，环比加速17.7pct.中国香港、中国澳门市场同店销售增长14.3%，环比7-9月加速8.1pct。2)产品 结构方面，高毛利的定价首饰继续领先增长。中国内地定价首饰类别零售值同比增长59.6%，零售值贡 献达到40.1%，同比增加10.7pct。3)门店方面，继续贯彻强化单店效益的规划，季内净关店228家，期末 门店总数5813家。不过预计进入2027财年关 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics discussed [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook reported a retail value increase of 17.8% year-on-year for the period of October to December 2025, with the mainland China market growing by 16.9% and markets outside mainland China by 22.9% [1]. - Same-store sales in mainland China increased by 21.4% year-on-year, while sales outside mainland China rose by 14.3%, indicating an acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The proportion of priced jewelry significantly increased, with a year-on-year growth of 53.4% for priced jewelry and 13.1% for gold jewelry, leading to a retail share of 40.1% for priced jewelry, which is expected to support margin improvements [2]. - The company is focusing on brand transformation and has introduced new products, including collaborations with Disney, which may enhance consumer engagement and sales [2]. - Chow Tai Fook plans to optimize its domestic channels and expand internationally, with a goal to open new stores in high-end locations by June 2026 [3]. Financial Summary - For FY2025, Chow Tai Fook's revenue was HKD 89.656 billion, with a projected increase to HKD 94.115 billion in FY2026, representing a 5% growth [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2025 was HKD 5.916 billion, expected to rise to HKD 8.760 billion in FY2026, reflecting a 48% increase [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from HKD 0.59 in FY2025 to HKD 0.89 in FY2026 [4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 29.51% in FY2025 to 32.22% in FY2026 [6]. Operational Metrics - Chow Tai Fook's total number of stores in mainland China was 5,433 at the end of December 2025, with a net closure of 230 stores during the same period [3]. - The company is enhancing store quality and efficiency, with new store designs performing better than traditional stores [3]. - The cash flow from operating activities is projected to significantly increase to HKD 13.431 billion in FY2026 from HKD 299 million in FY2025 [6].

Overall Performance - Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group's total revenue for the fiscal year 2025 (April 2024 to March 2025) was HKD 89.6 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5% [2] - For the period from April to September 2025, total revenue reached HKD 39 billion, showing a smaller decline of 1.1% compared to the previous year [2][25] - The group maintained a net profit margin of 6.6%, with net profit remaining stable year-on-year [6][30] Financial Health - The group experienced significant fluctuations in cash flow, with operating cash flow showing a net outflow of HKD 29.5 billion [12][37] - The increase in financing cash flow was attributed to strategic transformation and risk defense preparations [41] - As of September 2025, total assets amounted to HKD 76.5 billion, with inventory accounting for 72.4% of current assets [14][40] Main Business - The sales of priced jewelry in the mainland market increased by 16% year-on-year, with priced gold jewelry making up 66% of sales [16][42] - The average selling price of priced gold jewelry rose to HKD 6,300, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year [44] - Cultural IP products generated total sales of HKD 3.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48% [44] Development Trends - The company opened 57 new stores in the first half of the fiscal year 2026, achieving an average monthly sales of over HKD 1.3 million, a 72% increase [45] - The retail value in first and second-tier cities increased by 9.4 percentage points to 64.7%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a decline [45] - The mainland market remains the largest revenue source, with a revenue of HKD 32.2 billion, down 2.5% year-on-year, but showing signs of recovery in same-store sales [19][46]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the overall sentiment appears positive based on the performance metrics and growth outlook discussed in the report [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook has shown a recovery in same-store sales, with a notable increase in retail value and a positive consumer response despite high gold prices [2]. - The company has optimized its product structure, with a significant increase in the sales of priced jewelry, which has enhanced brand strength [3]. - Continuous optimization of channels and the introduction of new store formats are accelerating the brand transformation [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2026 H1, Chow Tai Fook reported revenue of HKD 38.986 billion, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of HKD 2.534 billion, reflecting a modest increase of 0.2% [1]. - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.22 per share, with a payout ratio of 85.7% [1]. - The revenue breakdown shows that the mainland China market accounted for 82.6% of total sales, with a year-on-year decline of 2.5%, while sales outside mainland China increased by 6.5% [2]. Product and Market Dynamics - The sales of priced jewelry in mainland China increased by 16.1%, while the sales of gold jewelry decreased by 5.8% [3]. - The launch of the high-end jewelry series "He Mei Dong Fang" has demonstrated strong demand, with nearly 200 pieces sold during the promotional event [3]. - The company has also introduced new jadeite designs and collaborated with notable brands to enhance its product offerings [3]. Operational Efficiency - Chow Tai Fook has optimized its store network, closing a net of 611 stores in FY2026 H1, resulting in a total of 5,663 stores [4]. - The gross profit margin for FY2026 H1 was 30.5%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower margins in retail due to gold price fluctuations [5]. - The company has successfully reduced its inventory turnover days to approximately 424 days, a decrease of about 33 days year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [5]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for Chow Tai Fook for FY2026 to FY2028 are HKD 7.980 billion, HKD 9.110 billion, and HKD 10.296 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.7X, 15.5X, and 13.7X [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the rising gold prices this year are expected to enhance the company's gross profit margin, with a long-term growth outlook for gold prices amid global risk aversion, leading to an "outperform" rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929) [1] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026-2028 to HKD 77.85 billion, 87.11 billion, and 95.43 billion, respectively, up from previous estimates of 74.25 billion, 84.14 billion, and 93.28 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.9, 18.7, and 17.1 times [1] Group 2 - For the quarter ending September 2025, the company reported a 4.1% year-on-year increase in overall retail value, recovering from a 1.9% decline in the previous quarter, with mainland China retail value up 3% and Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets up 11.4% [2] - Same-store sales turned positive across all markets, with a 7.6% increase in mainland China direct stores (9.9% excluding watch business) and an 8.6% increase in franchise stores, while Hong Kong, Macau, and other markets saw a 6.2% increase [2] - The company adjusted its store strategy by closing 296 underperforming stores, ending the quarter with a total of 6,041 stores, while also enhancing the new image store initiative, opening one new store in Beijing, bringing the total to eight [2] - The jewelry market is benefiting from dual demands for value preservation and fashion, with the company leveraging its product development, channel efficiency, and brand strength to achieve positive same-store sales [2] - The outlook for the gold jewelry industry is optimistic, driven by the demand for value appreciation and the rise of self-consumption among younger consumers, with the company focusing on R&D and high-margin products to sustain growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold jewelry industry is facing significant challenges due to high gold prices, leading to decreased consumer purchasing enthusiasm and declining revenues for many companies [2][4]. Industry Overview - Gold prices have recently risen, with spot gold reported at $3,338 per ounce and Shanghai Gold Exchange opening at 792.86 yuan per gram [1]. - Despite high gold prices, consumer demand for gold jewelry has decreased, with China's gold consumption in Q1 2024 at 290.492 tons, down 5.96% year-on-year [2]. Company Performance - Major gold jewelry companies are reporting declines in revenue and profit. For instance, Zhou Dasheng's Q1 2025 revenue was 2.673 billion yuan, down 47.28% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 11.25% [2]. - Lao Feng Xiang reported a revenue of 17.521 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 31.64% year-on-year, and a net profit drop of 23.55% [3]. - Li Jia, a jewelry store operator, noted that business has significantly declined compared to previous years, with low transaction volumes despite high foot traffic during the May Day holiday [4]. Market Trends - The high gold prices are constraining consumer purchases, leading to a shift in strategy among gold jewelry companies. Many are focusing on high-end markets to enhance brand value [6]. - Companies like Lao Pu Gold have seen success, with a revenue increase of 167.5% in 2024, while others are closing stores [5][6]. - Pricing strategies are evolving, with companies increasingly offering "fixed-price" gold jewelry that allows for greater design elements and higher margins [7][8]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are currently hesitant to purchase gold jewelry unless it is for essential needs or investment purposes due to high prices [4]. - The trend of fixed-price gold jewelry is gaining traction, with some brands reporting significant sales growth in this category despite overall market challenges [7][9].