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黄金高位波动
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美经济数据不及预期+美联储人事变动,黄金高位震荡 | 投研报告
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the US economic data for July is below expectations, leading to potential pressure on economic growth, and the nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board may impact the Fed's independence and interest rate expectations [1][2][3] - The ISM data released on August 5 shows a non-manufacturing PMI of 50.1, below the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8, with the employment index at 46.4 compared to the prior 47.2, and new orders index at 50.3, down from 51.3, indicating significant economic pressure [1][3] - The nomination of Miran is seen as a move by Trump to reshape the Fed leadership, potentially undermining Powell's authority and aligning the Fed more closely with Trump's policies, although the impact on the September rate decision remains uncertain [3] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between US and Russian presidents in mid-August aims to discuss a long-term peace plan for Ukraine, which may influence gold price volatility [4] - The US copper tariffs have led to a significant transfer of global copper inventory, with approximately 400,000 tons moved to the US before the 50% tariff took effect, representing about 40% of the US's annual refined copper demand, impacting supply in Europe and China [4] - Companies with overseas copper processing capacity are expected to benefit from the tariff situation, with specific recommendations for leading gold companies such as Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold, as well as Hailiang Co., which has copper processing operations in North America [5]