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东方证券:看好金价中期上行 建议关注紫金矿业
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-23 03:14
Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold and silver prices on October 21, with London gold experiencing its largest single-day decline since April 2013, is attributed to trading factors rather than changes in market expectations [1][2]. Price Analysis - The report indicates that gold prices are expected to find support at the $4000 level, with a historical context provided by previous price movements in April, where gold saw significant declines [2]. - The current high for gold was noted at $4381 on October 20, and the expectation is that the price will stabilize around $4000 due to ongoing economic factors such as high U.S. fiscal deficits and declining fiat currency credibility [2]. Volatility Insights - The implied volatility of gold has decreased following the recent price drop, with the CBOE gold ETF volatility peaking at 32.78% on October 16 and then falling to 29.82% after the price decline [3]. - The expectation is that as gold enters a phase of sideways movement, volatility will continue to decrease, and stabilization may occur when implied volatility reaches around 20% [3].