鼓励长期资金入市
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中国平安股价创近一年新高
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 10:04
来源:视 觉中国 12月8日,中国平安(601318.SH)股价大涨。截至当天收盘,上涨2.27%,报收63.4元,股价创近一年 新高,成交量1.03亿股,成交额65.14亿元。当天,金融板块表现活跃。 消息面上,12月5日,金融监管总局发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》,对保险公司 相关业务风险因子进行下调。此调整涵盖长期持有沪深300指数成分股、中证红利低波动100指数成分 股、科创板普通股、及出口信用保险业务的保费和准备金风险三大领域。金融监理总局相关司局负责人 表示,此举旨在培养壮大耐心资本、支持科技创新。 政策发布当日,保险股应声大涨。中国平安A股涨幅达5.88%,港股涨幅超6%,中国太保 (601601.SH)、中国人寿(601628.SH)等跟涨幅度均超4%。 申万宏源认为,这是鼓励长期资金入市的配套政策,进一步定向鼓励保险持有沪深300和科创板成分 股,鼓励常态化高比例权益配置,同时保持了战术机动的空间。偿二代全面落实临近,缓解保险综合偿 付能力充足率压力。保险风险因子下调,在综合偿付能力充足率不变情况下,释放的权益加仓空间是千 亿级别。 方正证券表示,险企开门红有望超预期,同时权 ...
申万宏源策略《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》点评:鼓励长期资金入市的方向延续
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-07 01:17
Core Insights - The report discusses the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies' investments, specifically the reduction of risk factors for stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and the low-volatility 100 index from 0.3 to 0.27, and for stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board held for over two years from 0.4 to 0.36 [4][17][21] - The adjustment is seen as a marginal impact, with the potential for a significant increase in equity allocation by insurance funds in the long term [21][26] Quantitative Assessment of Risk Factor Adjustment Impact - The report presents three scenarios for the proportion of stocks held for over three years in the CSI 300 and low-volatility 100: current situation at 13.0%, mid-term neutral at 42.1%, and mid-term optimistic at 50.3% [9][19] - For stocks held for over two years in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the current situation is at 0.6%, mid-term neutral at 1.9%, and mid-term optimistic at 2.9% [9][19] - The minimum capital released due to the risk factor adjustment is estimated at 141 billion, 457 billion, and 554 billion under the three scenarios, respectively, with potential increases in stock investment of 514 billion, 1669 billion, and 2015 billion [17][19][21] Insurance Fund Allocation Trends - As of Q3 2025, insurance companies' investment in stocks and funds exceeded 15%, nearing a new high since 2015, but still below the regulatory cap of 30% [21][22] - If the allocation to stocks and funds were to increase to the 30% cap, an additional 32,431 billion could be invested in stocks [25][21] - The report emphasizes that the increase in equity allocation by insurance companies is a gradual process, with significant potential for future growth [21][26] Policy Implications - The adjustment of risk factors is viewed as a supportive policy for encouraging long-term capital market participation, particularly for state-owned insurance companies that have already increased their equity allocation [21][26] - The report suggests that the adjustment will provide additional incentives for other insurance companies to increase their equity investments [21][26] - The overall impact of the risk factor adjustment is considered marginal compared to the potential for long-term increases in equity allocation by insurance funds [21][26]