2025 年 5 月 23 日 生猪：被动累库 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 14450 | | -150 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 14150 | | -100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 15290 | | 0 比 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 | 格 | 同 | | | | 生猪2507 | 元/吨 | 13240 | | -45 | | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 13580 | | -70 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 13290 | | -45 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Pigs: Weakening Sentiment, Phased De-stocking" - Report Date: May 20, 2025 - Analysts: Zhou Xiaoqiu, Wu Hao 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current situation shows an inverted price difference between northern and southern fat pigs, a decrease in group piglet sales, and initial evidence of inventory accumulation from the pressure of selling fat pigs. The official piglet numbers confirm the inventory, leading to weakened expectations. There is a possibility of phased weight reduction due to trade circulation issues, and the positive spread structure may switch. The January contract is affected by liquidity, and although it is a peak - season contract before the Spring Festival, the increase in positions is limited, causing the far - month spread to deviate from the seasonal reasonable spread. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity of liquidity shift and continuously layout the 11 - 1 reverse spread in the medium - to - long term, while paying attention to stop - loss and take - profit. In the short term, the support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 14,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 14,990 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2507 contract is 13,300 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton; the Pig 2509 contract is 13,685 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; and the Pig 2511 contract is 13,380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2507 contract is 6,971 lots, an increase of 1,440 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 27,734 lots, an increase of 55 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 22,198 lots, a decrease of 6,147 lots, and the open interest is 79,343 lots, an increase of 69 lots. The trading volume of the Pig 2511 contract is 4,223 lots, a decrease of 1,176 lots, and the open interest is 31,864 lots, an increase of 719 lots [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2507 contract is 1,500 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2509 contract is 1,115 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton; the basis of the Pig 2511 contract is 1,420 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The 7 - 9 spread is - 385 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 305 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the value range being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, weakly - biased, neutral, strongly - biased, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - As described in the core view, factors such as price differences, inventory, and liquidity affect the market, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [4].