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2025年经济增长预期目标5%左右
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全国政协委员韩保江:经济增速定在5%左右有这些考虑
21世纪经济报道· 2025-03-06 10:18
Core Viewpoint - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing the need for job creation, stabilizing expectations, and achieving modernization goals [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth Target - The 5% growth target is aimed at creating sufficient new jobs, with approximately 12 million new graduates entering the job market [3]. - Maintaining a stable growth rate of around 5% is crucial for stabilizing market expectations and signaling to investors and consumers that the economy remains resilient [3]. - Achieving the goal of modernization by 2035 requires sustained economic growth of around 5% to reach a per capita GDP close to $30,000 [3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Policies - The report advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to address uncertainties and support economic growth [6][7]. - Increasing the deficit ratio to around 4% and expanding the issuance of special bonds are part of the proactive fiscal measures [7]. - A moderately loose monetary policy aims to maintain liquidity and encourage banks to provide low-cost funding to enterprises [7]. Group 3: Consumer and Investment Strategies - To boost consumption, the focus should be on increasing residents' income, especially for low- and middle-income groups, and optimizing income distribution [9]. - Investment efficiency can be improved by identifying promising industries and projects, supported by favorable government policies [10]. - Expanding domestic demand is essential, especially in light of external pressures, by enhancing both consumption and investment [9]. Group 4: Development of New Productive Forces - Developing new productive forces is necessary for sustained economic growth, moving beyond traditional industries to create new demand through innovation [11]. - Local governments should tailor their development strategies based on regional advantages, avoiding uniform approaches [12]. Group 5: Economic System Reforms - Key reforms include establishing a unified national market to enhance resource allocation efficiency and support the development of the private economy [14][15]. - The government should focus on maintaining order and providing services, stepping back from direct market involvement [16]. Group 6: Risk Management - The real estate market is in a stabilization phase after significant adjustments, requiring supportive policies to ensure healthy development [17]. - Effective management of local debt risks involves setting clear borrowing limits and ensuring that debt is used efficiently [18].